Recession Ahead? Leading Economic Indicators Are Saying Yes
Recession ahead? The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Sharply Again in December The LEI is now down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2022—a much steeper rate of decline than its 1.9 percent contraction over the previous six-month period. "The US LEI fell sharply again in December—continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. "There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead. Industrial production— also a component of the CEI—fell for the third straight month as well. Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023."