Are the New Condo Loan Rules Pushing Central Florida Condo Sales to Cash?

By Brenden Rendo, Realtor · Updated November 4, 2026

Since August, the conversation among lenders and agents online has run one direction: new agency condo review rules are going to turn condo buildings into cash-only markets. It is a reasonable worry, and the rule changes behind it are real. So I pulled this year's closed condominium sales in Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia counties out of Stellar MLS, 2,876 of them, and looked at how each one was paid for. The answer is narrower and less dramatic than the warnings: in these four counties, the cash share of closed condominium sales has not moved in any way the data can distinguish from ordinary month-to-month noise.

What actually changed, and on what dates

Two documents drive all of this. Fannie Mae issued Lender Letter LL-2026-03, Updates to Project Standards and Property Insurance Requirements, and Freddie Mac issued Bulletin 2026-C. The National Association of Realtors summarized both in its Washington Report on changes in condominium underwriting guidelines, published March 23, 2026.

Per that NAR summary, the package cuts both ways. New and established projects with 10 or fewer units may now qualify for a waiver of project review, and NAR reports that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eliminated the 50% investor concentration cap for established projects reviewed under Full Review. Those are loosenings. In the other direction, the Limited Review process was eliminated, so projects that used to clear it now need a Full Review unless they qualify for a waiver, and where a reserve study is used instead of the standard benchmark, the lender must rely on the highest recommended reserve amount in the study.

Three dates are worth writing down:

The January date was contested and did not move. The National Association of Mortgage Brokers has a standing condo financing advocacy page describing its formal letter to FHFA asking for at least a twelve-month delay and a preserved streamlined pathway. As of this writing the dates stand as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac published them. Trade coverage in late September reported that FHFA's answer was that the companies would implement on time.

On the insurance side, NAR's summary notes that master property policies may now carry per-unit deductibles of up to $50,000 provided unit owners carry supplemental coverage sufficient to cover the deductible, and that roofs must still be insured but certain wind or hail losses may be settled on an actual cash value basis rather than replacement cost. Read those two together and the practical effect is a shift of risk toward the individual unit owner's own policy. If you own a unit, that is a question for your insurance agent before renewal, not something to discover after a claim.

What 2,876 Central Florida condo closings show

Here is the pull. On November 3, 2026 I queried Stellar MLS for listings with a status of Closed, a close date between January 1 and November 2, 2026, a property type of Residential, and a property subtype of Condominium, in Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia counties. The query returned 2,876 sales, and every figure below describes those 2,876 records, not the condo market as a whole. I pulled the Condo - Hotel subtype in the same query and report it separately below, because it behaves nothing like a residential condominium. Leases were excluded; an earlier version of this query caught them and the medians gave the error away immediately.

Of those 2,876 closings, 2,873 record a buyer financing type. Only 3 are blank, so the denominator problem that usually ruins this kind of analysis does not apply here. The live value list in the Condominium pull, in order: Cash 1,736, Conventional 975, FHA 52, VA 43, Private 32, Seller Financing 21, and 14 records carrying combinations or one-off values such as Assumed and Lease Option / Purchase. Every cash figure below counts only the records whose financing type is exactly Cash. Ten of those 14 pair Cash with another financing type, and I have left all ten out of the cash count rather than guess which side carried the deal; folding all ten in would move the full-year share from 60.36% to 60.71%.

Cash was 60.36% of all 2,876 closed condominium sales. Split at August 1, the month the August 3 rule change took effect:

Source: Stellar MLS via the Bridge RESO API, pulled November 3, 2026. Closed sales only, property type Residential, property subtype Condominium, close dates January 1 to November 2, 2026. Figures in parentheses are the number of closings behind that share. Every share printed rests on 30 or more closings. Lake County's August-to-October cell is suppressed because only 27 Lake condominium sales closed in that window, below the 30-record floor I hold these to. Median close prices are the median for this subtype in this window and are a description of what sold, not a price trend.

Read the county rows and the shift story gets weaker, not stronger. Three of the four counties have a comparable before-and-after figure, and all three moved up, by 1.62 points in Orange, 4.09 points in Seminole and 0.23 points in Volusia. Lake cannot be compared at all on this split without going under the record floor. A move that ranges from a quarter of a point to four points across three counties, two of them barely moving, is not a market turning cash-only.

Now look at the monthly series, which shows how much this share moves on its own. Cash share of closed condominium sales by month, all four counties pooled, with closings in parentheses: January 56.25% (208), February 64.29% (266), March 61.57% (281), April 59.22% (309), May 63.69% (314), June 57.05% (319), July 57.49% (334), August 59.55% (309), September 62.98% (262), October 60.97% (269). Only 5 condominium sales in this pull closed in the first two days of November, far too few to report.

The January-through-July months alone span 56.25% to 64.29%, a spread of 8.04 points. Every single one of the three post-rule months sits inside that range. A 1.10-point gap between two windows is well within how much this series moved on its own in 2026, and at these sample sizes it is not a statistically meaningful difference.

The Condo - Hotel subtype is a different animal and belongs in its own row. In the same four counties and window, 195 Condo - Hotel sales closed and 157 of them were cash, 80.51%. Before and after the rule date: 79.72% of 143 closings in January through July, 82.69% of 52 closings in August through October. Condo-hotel projects are generally not eligible for agency financing in the first place, consistent with that market already running four-fifths cash and why nothing here should be mixed in with residential condominium figures.

For the supply side of the condo picture in these counties, including months of supply and the stale-listing share, I covered that separately in Central Florida condo supply and months of supply. Worth knowing in this context: as of the November 1, 2026 data pull behind that post, condo months of supply sat above six months in each of Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia. Buyers who can get a loan have choices, and that matters more to a seller right now than the review rules do.

The Florida wrinkle: a legal reserve study the agencies will not use

This is the part that is genuinely specific to Florida, and it is the part most of the national commentary misses.

Florida law tells an association what its structural integrity reserve study has to recommend. Section 718.112(2)(g)4.a of the Florida Statutes reads, in part, that "the structural integrity reserve study must include a recommendation for a reserve funding schedule based on a baseline funding plan that provides a reserve funding goal in which the reserve funding for each budget year is sufficient to maintain the reserve cash balance above zero. The study may recommend other types of reserve funding schedules, provided that each recommended schedule is sufficient to meet the association's maintenance obligation." You can read the full text of s. 718.112 on the Florida Legislature's site.

Baseline funding means the reserve cash balance never drops below zero. That is the floor the statute requires a study to put on the table.

Now read Freddie Mac's own answer in its Condominium Unit Mortgage FAQ, which I opened on November 3, 2026. On funding methodologies it says: "If a reserve study is used as an exception to our reserve requirements, then Sellers will not be able to use the baseline funding methodology to determine adequacy of replacement reserves for mortgages with an Application Received Date on or after August 3, 2026. Additionally, the highest recommendation in the reserve study must be used."

Put the two side by side. An association can commission a study that does exactly what Florida law requires of it, recommend baseline funding, fund to that recommendation, and still have no reserve-study route available to a Freddie Mac seller after August 3. The association then falls back to the flat budget test, which is a 10% allocation today and 15% for Full Review applications dated on or after January 4, 2027. A study that also recommends threshold or full funding is a different situation, because then the highest of its recommendations is the one that counts.

Two things this does not mean. It does not mean the unit cannot be financed. Freddie Mac's FAQ describes a Project Waiver Request path in Condo Project Advisor for established projects that do not meet the replacement reserve requirement, NAR describes the waiver of project review for projects of 10 or fewer units, and portfolio and non-agency lenders exist outside this system entirely. And it is not a statement about any particular building. I am not labeling anything here, and neither should a listing agent.

Reserve studies, milestone inspections and the document packet a buyer should be asking for are covered in more depth in my piece on Central Florida condo and HOA fees, so I am not going to repeat that checklist here.

What people are saying online, and who is saying it

I ran a thirty-day sweep of Reddit, X, TikTok, YouTube and Instagram for discussion of these rules. Two things stood out about the results, and both matter for how much weight to give them.

First, almost none of it is from Central Florida. The posts are national, or Florida-wide, or from South Florida, and I am presenting them as exactly that. No one quoted below is describing a deal in Orange, Seminole, Lake or Volusia county.

Second, the conversation is overwhelmingly practitioners explaining the rules, not consumers reporting that a deal died. In thirty days of searching I did not find a Central Florida buyer or seller posting about a condo loan that failed project review. That absence is not proof it is not happening. It does tell you that the alarm online is running ahead of the documented experience.

On X on October 7, 2026, @lenderlindsay tied deferred maintenance to financing access:

"The problem with this deferred maintenance is that if they do not get it completed, they will not be able to have any buyers finance with the agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and FHA and VA….. after the condo collapse in Florida, these are deemed unwarrantable until the repairs are made. This is going to make it extremely hard to sell."

That is a fair description of the risk, and it is also stronger than I would put it. The waiver and portfolio paths above are the reason I would not use that label on a specific building without seeing the lender's determination in writing.

On TikTok on October 24, 2026, @movemetoparadise framed it as a building-level test: "Florida condo owners: your building now has to pass a test before a buyer can get a loan." The same post added, "Approval happens at the building level." That second sentence is the single most useful thing in the whole sweep. Buyers are used to being underwritten. The newer experience is the building being underwritten alongside them.

On TikTok on November 1, 2026, @floridamortgagelender posted the January date with the right caveats attached: "For Fannie Mae Full Review applications dated Jan. 4, 2027 or later, the minimum reserve allocation rises from 10% to 15% of annual budgeted assessment income. A qualifying reserve study can provide another route. This doesn't apply to every loan program."

A thread in r/Mortgages on October 21, 2026 titled "Fannie Mae guidelines and HOA issues" ran into the unit-count carve-outs. A commenter in that thread wrote: "Fannie Mae states that in states with statutory fidelity/crime insurance requirements, they'll accept those requirements instead of their own. There is also an exemption for condo projects with 20 units or fewer." I have not verified that commenter's unit threshold against the Selling Guide, and the carve-outs in Freddie Mac's FAQ are written around 2-to-4-unit and 5-to-10-unit projects, so treat the specific number as something to confirm with your lender rather than a rule to rely on. The general point holds: project size changes which requirements apply.

What this data cannot tell you

I would rather state the limits than let the headline number carry more than it can.

• Closings in August through October are a mix of applications from both sides of the rule. A loan applied for in June can close in September. Stellar MLS does not carry the application received date, so this pull cannot separate pre-August-3 applications from post-August-3 ones. The post-rule window is contaminated by design, and it will be cleaner in the spring.
• A deal that dies is invisible here. This pull is closed sales. A buyer whose conventional loan fell apart on project review and who walked away does not appear as anything at all, not as a cash sale and not as a failed one. If the rules are pushing financed buyers out of the market rather than converting them to cash, this measurement would not see it.
• Stellar does not record which projects passed review. There is no field for it. Nothing here identifies a building, and nothing here should be read as a judgment about any building.
• The two windows are different lengths and different seasons. Seven months against three. Shares are not affected by window length, but the two windows cover different seasons, and I have not separated any seasonal pattern out of the comparison.
• This is a comparison, not a cause. Even if the gap had been large, nothing in this data would establish the rule change as the reason for it.
• Financing type is reported by the agent at closing. It is a reliable field here, with 3 blanks out of 2,876, but it is self-reported.

One more thing this post is deliberately not about. Rates move condo demand too, and I am not going to muddle the two; if that is the question you came with, I covered it in mortgage rates crossing 7 percent in Central Florida.

What to check before you sign, buyer or seller

None of what follows is legal advice, and none of it is a promise about whether a particular loan will be approved. Confirm every item with your own lender and with the association.

If you are buying a condo in Orange, Seminole, Lake or Volusia county:

1. Ask your lender, in writing, which review type this project will run under and whether the project has already been reviewed. The answer determines which requirements you are up against.
2. Ask for the association's current budget and the replacement reserve line as a percentage of annual budgeted assessment income. That is the number the flat test is run against.
3. Ask whether the association has a structural integrity reserve study, what funding methodologies it recommends, and whether the budget funds the highest of them.
4. Ask about any special assessment, levied or discussed, and any outstanding critical repair. Per Freddie Mac's FAQ, a special assessment cannot be used in place of the budget reserve allocation.
5. Get the questionnaire moving early. Freddie Mac's FAQ is explicit that the GSE condo questionnaire is optional and that when a questionnaire does not answer what the lender needs, the lender has to obtain more documentation, and if the determination cannot be made, the project is not eligible. A slow management company is a timeline risk on your contract.
6. Have a backup financing conversation before you waive anything. Portfolio and non-agency options exist, they price differently, and that is a comparison to run on paper rather than discover late.

If you are selling a condo in these four counties:

1. Assemble the document packet before you list: budget, reserve study, milestone inspection status, insurance declarations, minutes, assessment history. Every day your buyer's lender waits on the association is a day your contract is at risk.
2. Price for the buyers who are actually closing. About six in ten of the closed condominium sales this pull returned in these counties this year were cash, 59.97% of the January-to-July closings and 61.07% of the August-to-October ones.
3. If your association's budget is near the 10% line, understand what the January 4, 2027 step to 15% means for a buyer applying next year, and raise it with your board now rather than during a contract.
4. Know your competition. Supply is long in all four counties, which I walked through in the condo supply post linked above and in the Central Florida housing market hub.

If you are an investor: the elimination of the 50% investor concentration cap for established projects under Full Review, per NAR's summary of LL-2026-03, is a real loosening and it has gone underdiscussed next to the reserve news. The reserve floor and the review requirements still apply. Underwrite the association's balance sheet, not just the unit.

Frequently asked questions

Did Central Florida condo sales actually shift toward cash after the August 2026 rule change?

Not measurably. Across 2,876 closed condominium sales in Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia counties pulled from Stellar MLS on November 3, 2026, cash was 59.97% of the 2,031 closings from January through July and 61.07% of the 840 closings from August through October, a gap of 1.10 points. A gap that size between samples of 2,031 and 840 closings is within ordinary statistical noise, and single months from January through July ranged from 56.25% to 64.29% on their own.

What changed in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac condo rules?

Fannie Mae's Lender Letter LL-2026-03 and Freddie Mac's Bulletin 2026-C revised project review. Per NAR's March 23, 2026 summary, the Limited Review process was eliminated, projects with 10 or fewer units may qualify for a waiver of project review, the 50% investor concentration cap was removed for established projects under Full Review, and where a reserve study is used the highest recommended reserve amount applies. Freddie Mac's own FAQ states that Streamlined Review may be used only if the application received date is before August 3, 2026.

What happens on January 4, 2027?

For Full Review applications dated on or after January 4, 2027, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raise the minimum replacement reserve allocation from 10% to 15% of the association's annual budgeted assessment income. The National Association of Mortgage Brokers asked FHFA for at least a twelve-month delay, and trade coverage in late September 2026 reported FHFA's position that the companies would implement on time. The date stands as published.

Can a Florida condo association follow state law and still fail the agency reserve test?

Yes, and this is the Florida-specific mismatch. Section 718.112(2)(g)4.a of the Florida Statutes requires a structural integrity reserve study to include, at minimum, a recommendation based on a baseline funding plan that keeps the reserve cash balance above zero. Freddie Mac's Condominium Unit Mortgage FAQ states that where a reserve study is used as the exception to its reserve requirements, sellers may not use the baseline funding methodology for applications received on or after August 3, 2026, and the study's highest recommendation must be used. An association can fund exactly to the statute's minimum recommendation and still have to meet the flat budget test instead.

Does this mean a condo in a building with low reserves cannot be financed?

No. Freddie Mac's FAQ describes a Project Waiver Request path in Condo Project Advisor for established projects that do not meet the replacement reserve requirement, NAR's summary describes the waiver of project review for projects of 10 or fewer units, and portfolio and non-agency lenders operate outside the agency framework. Eligibility is a determination your lender makes on your specific project and loan program, so get it in writing rather than relying on a general rule.

Why are condo-hotel figures reported separately?

Because they are a different market. In the same pull, 157 of 195 closed Condo - Hotel sales in these four counties were cash, 80.51%, compared with 60.36% across the 2,876 residential condominium sales. Condo-hotel projects are generally not eligible for agency financing to begin with, so mixing the two would overstate the cash share of the condominium market.

What is the single most useful question to ask before buying a Central Florida condo right now?

Ask your lender which review type the project runs under and whether it has already been reviewed, and ask the association which funding methodologies its structural integrity reserve study recommends. Those two answers tell you more about your financing risk than anything else on the document list.

Buying or selling a condo in Orange, Seminole, Lake or Volusia county and want the association's numbers read before you write an offer or set a price? That is the work, and I am happy to do it with you. Call or text me at 407-616-9019, or send me a message here. If you are weighing a sale, start with the home value estimator and we will refine it from there.