By Brenden Rendo, Realtor · Updated October 31, 2026

Two housing reports landed on the same day, October 29, and they sound like opposites. The National Association of REALTORS said home prices rose in 78% of U.S. metro areas in the third quarter. Redfin's headline said U.S. home-sale prices had just fallen for the first time in three years. If you are buying or selling in Orange, Seminole, Lake or Volusia County, which headline is yours? I pulled the closed sales for July, August and September to find out.

+1.7%
NAR: U.S. Median Price, Q3 Year Over Year
Existing single-family median of $432,900 (NAR, October 29, 2026)
-0.1%
Redfin: U.S. Median Sale Price, Year Over Year
Median of $389,601, four weeks ending Oct. 25 (Redfin, October 29, 2026)
5 up, 4 down, 3 flat
Local Median Price Readings, Jul to Sep
4 counties x 3 months, year over year (Stellar MLS closed sales)
3.76 to 4.48
Months of Supply, July to September
Four-county total, Stellar MLS
TLDR:
  • NAR reported a 1.7% national gain in the third-quarter median price. Redfin reported a 0.1% national dip. Both are close to flat.
  • In Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia, median closed prices moved between -2.55% and +5.96% from a year earlier, with no steady direction. Of 12 monthly readings, 5 were up, 4 were down and 3 were flat.
  • Prices held about even while the market slowed: months of supply rose from 3.76 in July to 4.48 in September, and September closed sales across the four counties were 5.42% below a year earlier.
  • For buyers, that means more time to compare and decide. For sellers, it means the asking price matters more than it did in July.

Two headlines, one quarter

NAR's third-quarter report put the national median single-family existing-home price at $432,900, up 1.7% from a year earlier, with prices rising in 78% of metro areas. For the South region, NAR showed $374,900, up 1.0%. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that homes in nearly all Florida markets are showing price gains this quarter after a year in which prices declined in many of them. You can read the full release on the NAR newsroom.

Redfin's October 29 update measured something different. It put the U.S. median sale price at $389,601, down 0.1% from a year earlier, and headlined it as the first fall in three years. Redfin's figure covers the four weeks ending October 25, after the quarter closed, and it was the second straight weekly dip, after -0.2% the week before.

Read side by side, the gap is smaller than the headlines suggest. One report shows a gain of 1.7% and the other a drop of about 0.1%. Neither describes a surge or a slide. They also measure different things: NAR tracks single-family existing homes by quarter, while Redfin reports homes sold in a rolling four-week window across 900+ metro areas. That is a good reason to look at actual closed sales near you.

What Central Florida closed sales show

I pulled every closed residential sale (single-family homes, condos and townhomes) in Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia counties from Stellar MLS for July, August and September 2026, and compared each month's median closed price with the same month a year earlier. Osceola County is not included.

County July median (YoY) August median (YoY) September median (YoY)
Orange $440,000 (-1.35%) $425,000 (0.00%) $444,995 (+2.00%)
Seminole $439,727 (+5.96%) $420,000 (0.00%) $393,500 (-2.55%)
Lake $365,000 (-2.52%) $375,000 (0.00%) $370,000 (+0.15%)
Volusia $345,000 (+2.99%) $340,000 (+2.65%) $340,000 (-0.98%)
All four counties $399,994 $390,000 $390,000

Source: Stellar MLS closed residential sales, July through September 2026. Year-over-year change compares each month with the same month in 2025. The all-county row is one pooled median across all four counties, not an average of the county medians.

Three of the twelve readings landed at exactly 0.00%. In August the Orange, Seminole and Lake medians were each identical to the year-earlier median: $425,000, $420,000 and $375,000. Median prices tend to cluster at round numbers, so that is not unusual, but it shows how little movement there was.

Quick Tip: A single month's median can swing several points because of which homes happened to close. Look at three months and compare the same month a year apart before you decide a market is rising or falling.

County by county

  • Orange: The median ended the quarter up 2.00% in September to $444,995, but closed sales were down 5.19% (1,280 against 1,350 a year earlier). Higher prices on fewer sales is not the same as a hot market.
  • Seminole: The strongest month was July, up 5.96% to $439,727. August was flat and September was down 2.55% to $393,500. The year-over-year reading weakened each month.
  • Lake: The steadiest county. Medians sat within 2.52% of last year in every month and finished September at $370,000, up 0.15%.
  • Volusia: Up in July and August, down 0.98% in September to $340,000. Closed sales fell 14.13% in September (626 against 729), the sharpest drop of the four counties.

Why the two reports do not match

Three differences matter when you compare any national report with local sales:

  • Different homes. NAR reports single-family existing homes. My table counts all closed residential sales, so condos and townhomes pull the median down. In September the four-county median for single-family homes alone was $430,000, against $390,000 for everything.
  • Different footprints. NAR reports by metropolitan area. The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro includes Osceola County, and Volusia sits in the separate Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach metro. Our four counties are not one NAR metro.
  • Different timing. A third-quarter median and a rolling four-week one from late October can point in different directions when prices are close to flat.

Because of that, I am not claiming that either national report is wrong. I am saying that a 1.7% national gain or a 0.1% national dip tells you very little about your street. The local numbers above are the better guide, and they say the market is holding steady rather than rebounding.

What this means for buyers

Prices did not run away from buyers this quarter, and sales slowed. Across the four counties, months of supply rose from 3.76 in July to 4.11 in August and 4.48 in September, while the average time from listing to contract went from 67.9 days in July to 72.1 days in September. Total closed sales fell from 3,568 in July to 3,034 in September, 5.42% below September 2025, while inventory held near 13,400 to 13,600 homes. That gives you more time to compare and decide, but it does not mean every home is discounted. Homes priced well still sell, and homes priced high sit.

If you are shopping, the practical move is to look at homes that have already cut their price. I track those weekly for each county: Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia.

What this means for sellers

A flat market with slower sales rewards accurate pricing. With closed sales down in three of four counties in September and homes taking about four days longer to go under contract than in July, a price set off last spring's sales deserves a second look before you list. Prices in your neighborhood may be moving differently from the county median, so start with comparable sales close to your home, not a headline.

Pro Move: Before you list, ask for the sold prices and days to contract on the three or four closest comparable homes from the last 90 days. Those tell you more than any county or national median.

For the broader picture, see the Central Florida housing market page, or find out what your own home is worth with the home value estimator.

Thinking about buying or selling in Orange, Seminole, Lake or Volusia County? Call or text Brenden Rendo at 407-616-9019, or send a message, and I will pull the comparable sales for your street.

Local figures are from Stellar MLS closed residential sales for July through September 2026 (Orange, Seminole, Lake and Volusia counties), pulled between August 27 and October 8, 2026. National figures are from the National Association of REALTORS (October 29, 2026) and Redfin (October 29, 2026). Past sales do not predict future prices.