Condos Have 8.5 Months of Supply Here and Houses Have 3.7. That Gap Is the Whole Story.

By Brenden Rendo, Realtor · Updated September 27, 2026

National headlines this month said condo sales fell to a data low and condo supply spiked to a 14-year high. That is a real national number, and it is worth asking what it actually looks like in Orange, Seminole, Volusia and Lake counties. So I pulled it. On September 24 I ran a fresh Stellar MLS query across all four counties, splitting active condominium listings from active single-family listings and measuring each against its own trailing 12 months of closed sales. The gap is wide, and the reason behind it depends on which county you are in.

What months of supply actually measures

Months of supply answers one question: at the pace buyers are currently closing, how long would it take to sell every listing on the market today if nothing new came on. I calculated it the plain way. Active listings divided by the average monthly closed-sale count over the trailing 12 months. Twelve months of closings rather than one month, because a single month of sales is a season, not a market.

The conventional read is that roughly six months is balanced, below that favors sellers and above that favors buyers. Treat that as a rough guide rather than a rule. What matters more is the contrast between two segments measured the same way on the same day, and that contrast here is stark.

Source: Stellar MLS, pulled September 24, 2026. Active counts cover listings flagged for internet display in Orange, Seminole, Volusia and Lake counties. Prices referenced throughout this post are asking prices on active listings, not sale prices and not home values.

One number in that table cuts against the easy narrative. The share of listings sitting below their original price is nearly identical for condos and houses, 53.6% against 55.6%. Sellers in both segments are cutting at about the same rate. The difference is not who is cutting. It is how much, and how long they wait first.

The national story is a sales slump. Locally, it depends on the county.

According to the National Association of Realtors existing-home sales report for August 2026, condominium and co-op sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 360,000, down 2.7% from the month before and down 2.7% from a year earlier, at a median price of $371,600. Total housing inventory nationally hit 1.62 million units, 5.9% above August 2025, putting overall supply at 4.9 months, which NAR's chief economist called the highest in over ten years.

Here is where our four counties diverge, from the national number and from each other. Condo closings across Orange, Seminole, Volusia and Lake totaled 3,400 over the trailing 12 months, against 3,267 in the 12 months before that. That is a 4.1% increase, a little ahead of the 2.2% rise in single-family closings. But the gain is almost entirely Volusia, where condo closings rose from 735 to 922, up 25.4%. Orange County, which holds about half of the active condo inventory, went the other way: 1,765 closings against 1,832, down 3.7%, the same direction as the national number. Seminole was flat at 590 against 594, and Lake rose from 106 to 123, too few sales to read much into.

Which means the 8.5-month figure is not one story. In Volusia, buying is up sharply and supply is still the deepest in the four counties at 9.0 months, so it is the listings that have to clear. In Orange, fewer condos closed than a year ago and 8.4 months of supply sits on top of that, so demand is part of it. The two resolve differently. A market where buying is up clears as the listing side normalizes. A market where buying is slipping needs lower prices or more buyers first. In both, the buyer holds the leverage for now.

County by county, and why Volusia is the outlier

Source: Stellar MLS, pulled September 24, 2026. Asking prices on active listings.

Volusia is the hardest condo market in the four counties, and it is also the most expensive one. That combination surprises people. The median Volusia condo asks $379,000 at $290 per square foot, which is a higher price per square foot than any single-family market we cover, Orange County houses included at $263. This is beachside inventory. Oceanfront and near-ocean buildings in Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, New Smyrna Beach and Ponce Inlet command a premium per foot and sell to a discretionary buyer who is under no deadline. A 74-day median and 55.2% of listings past 60 days is what a discretionary market looks like when carrying costs are climbing.

Orange County holds the volume at 1,230 active condos, more than half the four-county total, but at a $199,000 median ask. That is a fundamentally different product from Volusia: mid-rise and garden-style inventory near the attractions corridor, the airport, and the university, with a median year built of 1994 and a heavy investor and second-home component.

Seminole is the tightest of the three real condo markets at 8.2 months, with the lowest median ask at $178,500 and the oldest median vintage at 1985.

Lake County does not really have a condo market, and I would rather say that than hand you a clean-looking 7.4 months. Seventy-six active listings against 123 closed sales over a full year is a sample small enough that a dozen units changing hands moves the figure noticeably. Read Lake's condo numbers as directional at best. Lake's single-family market, at 2,530 active listings and 4.4 months of supply, is the one that actually carries the county.

Why Florida condo supply builds differently than house supply

A house and a condo at the same price do not carry the same monthly obligation, and in Florida the gap has widened. Three things stack on the condo side that do not touch a single-family owner.

Milestone inspections and reserve studies. Florida requires milestone structural inspections for condominium and cooperative buildings of three or more habitable stories, and structural integrity reserve studies that drive how much an association must set aside. HB 913, effective July 2025, adjusted the framework, including an inflation-indexed reserve threshold and a narrow allowance for an association to pause or reduce reserve funding for up to two annual budgets when a milestone inspection has identified repairs and the membership approves. The practical effect for a buyer is that two buildings across the street from each other can be in very different financial condition, and the difference shows up in the assessment, not the asking price.

Insurance. Master policy premiums pass through to owners as association dues. When that line moves, every unit in the building gets more expensive to hold on the same day, regardless of what the unit is listed for.

Financing friction. Lenders evaluate the project, not just the borrower. A building with pending litigation, thin reserves, or an unresolved inspection item can fall outside conventional project eligibility, which narrows the buyer pool for every unit in it at once. A house never fails a project review.

Layer those on top of financing costs generally. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.76% two weeks earlier. Rising rates squeeze every buyer, and they squeeze hardest where the monthly carry already includes a dues line that has been climbing.

That is the mechanism behind an 8.5-month figure that coexists with rising sales. Condo owners have good reasons to list. Condo buyers have good reasons to be selective about which building they list under.

If you are buying a condo right now

You are shopping in the softest segment in Central Florida, and the data says so in three separate ways: more supply, longer time on market, and deeper cuts when they come. Across the four counties, condo sellers who have reduced have taken a median 6.1% to 7.2% off their original asking price depending on county, against 4.4% to 4.8% for house sellers. Nearly half of active condo listings have been sitting more than 60 days, and 37.6% have passed 90.

Two practical points on negotiating. First, a seller at 90-plus days has already told you the price is wrong, and 37.6% of the active condo market fits that description. Second, at a 7.03% rate, ask whether a seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown does more for your monthly payment than an equivalent price cut. Frequently it does, and a seller who is resistant to the headline price moving will sometimes agree to it.

If you want to see what has already moved, our county pages track active listings that have taken a reduction: Orange County price reductions, Seminole County, Volusia County and Lake County.

If you are trying to sell one

The hard truth in this dataset is not the supply figure. It is the sequence. Condo sellers are cutting at about the same rate as house sellers, 53.6% against 55.6%, but they are cutting roughly 1.5 percentage points deeper and after more time on market. That is the signature of a listing that started above the market and chased it down in stages.

Pricing to the segment rather than to the county average is the whole game. An Orange County condo priced against a $550,000 single-family median is invisible; the condo median ask in that county is $199,000. Within a building, your competition is the other units in the same building and the same stack, not the county.

Prepare the association paperwork before you list, not after an inspection objection. When a buyer's lender asks the project questions and the answers take two weeks to assemble, you lose the buyer who had a rate lock expiring. In a market where half the segment is sitting past 60 days, the listing that can answer those questions on day one has a real advantage.

For broader context on what is sitting and why, I broke down the stale-inventory picture across both property types in the 90-day stale listings analysis. The full data picture for the region lives on our Central Florida housing market hub, and if you want a current read on a specific unit, the home value estimator is the starting point.

Frequently asked questions

How many months of supply do Central Florida condos have right now?

Condominiums across Orange, Seminole, Volusia and Lake counties carry 8.5 months of supply as of September 24, 2026: 2,399 active listings against 3,400 closed sales over the trailing 12 months. Single-family homes in the same four counties carry 3.7 months.

Are condo sales falling in Central Florida the way they are nationally?

Not across the four counties combined, but it depends on the county. Closed condo sales totaled 3,400 in the trailing 12 months versus 3,267 in the prior 12 months, an increase of 4.1%, while NAR reported condominium and co-op sales down 2.7% nationally in August 2026. Nearly all of the local gain came from Volusia, up 25.4%. Orange County condo closings fell 3.7% and Seminole was flat, so in Orange the national slowdown does show up.

Which Central Florida county has the weakest condo market?

Volusia County, on every measure in this pull. It carries 9.0 months of supply, a 74-day median time on market, and 55.2% of its 692 active condo listings sitting past 60 days. It is also the most expensive condo market of the four at a $379,000 median asking price and $290 per square foot, reflecting beachside inventory in Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, New Smyrna Beach and Ponce Inlet.

How much are Central Florida condo sellers cutting their prices?

Among active condo listings that have taken a reduction, the median cut off original asking price runs 6.09% in Orange County, 6.15% in Volusia, 6.25% in Seminole and 7.17% in Lake. Single-family sellers who have cut are running 4.35% to 4.78% by county. These are reductions off original list on active listings, not sale prices.

Why is condo inventory higher than single-family inventory in Florida?

Condo ownership carries costs a house does not: association dues that absorb master insurance premiums, milestone structural inspections required on buildings of three or more habitable stories, and structural integrity reserve study funding. Lenders also evaluate the project alongside the borrower, so a building with thin reserves or pending litigation can narrow the buyer pool for every unit in it at once. Those pressures push more owners to list and make more buyers selective about which building they buy into.

Should I buy a Central Florida condo right now?

That depends on the building far more than on the market. The segment-level data favors buyers: more supply, longer marketing times, and deeper reductions than the single-family side. But an 8.5-month segment average tells you nothing about a specific association's reserves, assessment history or inspection status. Review the budget, reserve study, milestone report and 12 months of board minutes before you commit. Nothing here is a guarantee of a future price, a future assessment, or loan approval.

Thinking about buying or selling a condo in Orange, Seminole, Volusia or Lake County? I will pull the actual comparable sales inside your building, not the county average, and walk through the association documents with you before you are under contract. Call or text me at 407-616-9019, or reach out through homesinorlando.forsale.