Rates Are Up 0.78 Points Since February. Here's What Central Florida Buyers Lost, and What Sellers Are Giving Back

By Brenden Rendo, Realtor · Updated September 11, 2026

If you started shopping in February and you are still shopping now, you have felt this even if you never saw the number. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed bottomed at 5.98% the week of February 26, 2026, and the week of September 10 it was 6.76%. That is a 0.78 percentage point climb, and it did not happen in a straight line. Below is what it costs on Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia county medians, what sellers of stale listings are giving back right now, and the net number that matters: what waiting has really cost you, today.

1. The Rate Climb, Week by Week

The 30-year fixed did not march upward smoothly. It bottomed in late February, jumped hard through late March and early April, drifted higher through May and June, spent six weeks from late July into early September stuck between 6.65% and 6.71%, and then broke higher to 6.76% the week of September 10. The full weekly path from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey:

Two things jump out. First, the damage was front-loaded: 0.48 of the 0.78-point climb, more than 60% of it, happened in the five weeks between late February and early April. Second, the six quiet weeks from late July through early September did not turn into a pullback. The rate broke higher instead. A buyer who has been waiting for a clear move lower has not gotten one, and the pattern since spring argues for planning around today's rate rather than betting on a return to February's.

2. What the Climb Costs on Local Medians

Here is the payment math, principal and interest only, on the current Stellar MLS county medians as of September 10, 2026: Orange $429,900, Seminole $390,000, Lake $389,900, and Volusia $370,000. Each row compares the payment at February's 5.98% low to today's 6.76%.

The pattern holds across all four counties: roughly $170 to $197 more per month with 10% down, $151 to $175 more with 20% down, and a 30-year cost of the rate move alone that runs from about $54,000 in Volusia to $71,000 in Orange County, assuming the buyer never refinances. That last assumption matters. Most buyers would refinance if rates fell meaningfully, but it is the honest number if they do not.

3. The Price You'd Need Today to Match February's Payment

Flip the question around. Instead of asking what the same price costs more today, ask what price today produces February's payment. Because the ratio of payment factors between two fixed rates does not depend on the loan size, the answer is the same percentage at any down payment: a buyer needs a price about 7.9% below the current county median to recreate February's monthly payment.

That 7.9% is the yardstick for the next two sections. The closer sellers are to conceding that much off original list, the closer buyers get to February's payment through negotiation instead of through the Fed.

4. What Sellers Are Giving Back Right Now

Start with the broader region for context. Per the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association Housing Market Narrative, the most recent published data as of September 10 is for July 2026. ORRA's reporting territory includes Osceola County, so treat these as regional context, not our four-county figures: the median price was $410,494 in July against $375,000 in February, days on market fell from roughly 83 to 64, and months of supply fell from 6.34 to 4.4. Even as rates climbed through the spring, the regional market tightened rather than loosened, most likely the usual spring and summer sales season rather than a rate effect.

Our own four-county numbers (Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia, no Osceola) show the more recent stretch turning in buyers' favor. Comparing our July 22 and September 10, 2026 Stellar MLS snapshots: combined active inventory eased slightly from 13,456 to 13,354, and the median price softened in every county, Orange from $445,000 to $429,900, Seminole from $399,900 to $390,000, Lake from $393,900 to $389,900, and Volusia from $375,000 to $370,000. Median days on market rose in all four counties, and so did the share of listings sitting 60-plus days without a contract.

The clearest measure of negotiating room is the 90-plus day pool. As of the September 8, 2026 Stellar MLS pull, 4,657 active listings across the four counties have sat 90 days or more. Two numbers describe them, and both matter:

The fourth column is the typical stale listing, counting the ones that have not cut at all. The fifth is the typical cut among the listings that have. Both are asking prices on homes that have not sold, so read them as where negotiation starts, not where it ends. And neither reaches the 7.9% from Section 3: even a listing that has already cut is, on average, still a little short of giving a buyer February's payment back.

5. Net It Out: Rate Cost Minus the Discount

Put the rate cost from Section 2 against the discounts from Section 4, financed at today's 6.76% rate, and here is what is left over each month, county by county:

So the typical stale-listing discount wins back roughly 57% to 71% of the rate damage, and a listing that has already cut wins back roughly 82% to 85%. At 10% down that leaves a buyer about $60 to $85 a month above February's payment in the first case and about $25 to $35 in the second. Over 30 years without a refinance, that is roughly $21,000 to $31,000 versus $9,000 to $13,000. Seminole stands out: 85% of its stale listings have already cut, which is why it has the smallest gap in the first column.

6. What Buyers, Sellers, and Investors Should Do With This

Buyers: stop shopping the rate alone and start shopping listings that have already sat 90-plus days, especially the ones that have already cut. Those are the homes where the discount covers most of the climb since February. Ask your lender to run the exact payment on any home you are considering at today's quoted rate, not a rate you remember from the spring, and bring the county-level numbers above into your offer conversation. Browse current price-reduced inventory in Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia counties.

Sellers: if your home has been sitting, look at the table in Section 4. Most listings in your position have already cut, and the typical cut is about 6.5% off original list. Holding out for a February-era price in a 6.76% rate market is the most common reason a listing goes stale in the first place. One well-sized reduction now usually beats a slow series of small ones later. Get a current number from my home value estimator before your next price decision.

Investors: the 7.9% from Section 3 is your breakeven against February conditions. No county's median stale-listing cut reaches it today, even among listings that have already cut. Volusia (6.68%) and Seminole (6.67%) come closest, and Orange (6.45%) is furthest away. So the deals that beat February on payment are individual listings cutting deeper than the median, not a county-wide condition. Underwrite each one on its own numbers.

For the broader county-by-county picture behind these numbers, my Central Florida market hub tracks inventory, cuts, and days on market weekly.

7. Frequently Asked Questions

How much more does a mortgage payment cost in Central Florida after the rate climb since February 2026?

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 5.98% the week of February 26, 2026, and 6.76% the week of September 10, 2026, a 0.78 percentage point rise. On the $429,900 Orange County median with 10% down, principal and interest went from about $2,315 to about $2,512 a month, roughly $197 more, or about $71,000 over a 30-year term if the rate never moves again. Seminole, Lake, and Volusia see a $170 to $179 monthly increase on their medians.

What price would I need to pay today to get the same payment I could have gotten in February?

About 7.9% less than today's county median, at any down payment, because the math is a straight ratio of payment factors between 5.98% and 6.76%. On the Orange County median of $429,900 that is roughly $396,100, about $33,800 lower. On Volusia's $370,000 median it is roughly $340,900, about $29,100 lower. That is the size of the price concession that would fully offset the rate move.

Do price cuts actually offset higher mortgage rates in Central Florida?

Partly. Across the 4,657 listings in Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia counties that have sat 90 days or more (Stellar MLS, September 8, 2026), the median asking price is 4.5% to 5.6% below the original list price, depending on the county. That wins back roughly 57% to 71% of the monthly cost of the rate climb. Among the three quarters or more of those listings that have already cut, the median cut is 6.5% to 6.7%, which wins back roughly 82% to 85%. These are asking-price reductions on homes that have not sold yet, not closed-sale discounts.

Is now a worse time to buy in Central Florida than February 2026?

On rate alone, yes, payments are higher. But the four-county market has also softened: median prices in all four counties eased between late July and early September 2026, days on market rose in all four, and 52% to 57% of active listings are now priced below their original list, per Stellar MLS. At 10% down, a buyer who lands the typical stale-listing discount is left about $60 to $85 a month above February's payment on the county median, and about $25 to $35 a month above it on a listing that has already cut. Waiting for both rates and prices to improve at the same time is not the pattern the data shows.