FHA Lowers MIP Rates For Home Buyers

 

 

FHA Lowers MIP rates for home buyers

Transcript:

1
00:00:03,290 --> 00:00:06,640
Good morning, Brenden with
The Homes In Orlando team.

2
00:00:06,959 --> 00:00:11,423
Joined again here Joseph Dionne of
Appli Home Loans. Happy Thursday.

3
00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,835
What is up excited to be here?
We got some good news today,

4
00:00:14,915 --> 00:00:17,749
I think or some mixed news. We
got a whole bunch of random. Yeah.

5
00:00:17,868 --> 00:00:21,816
We got we got some good have
a little bit of not so good.

6
00:00:22,274 --> 00:00:25,467
But been a while since we actually
been able, like, come out and say,

7
00:00:25,587 --> 00:00:29,574
hey, this is good news for
the consumers. For the consumer, Yes.

8
00:00:30,113 --> 00:00:34,328
And that good news is
Fha announced yesterday.

9
00:00:36,679 --> 00:00:40,112
That they are going to lower
the mortgage insurance premium.

10
00:00:40,790 --> 00:00:43,944
Yep. So that's the monthly amount that
is... That's some mortgage insurance.

11
00:00:44,064 --> 00:00:48,752
And it's been set at point eight
five for... I don't know, Gosh.

12
00:00:48,871 --> 00:00:51,668
The last five years six. I
don't know. It could been long.

13
00:00:51,788 --> 00:00:55,400
I don't remember, but they're dropping
it down to point five five percent.

14
00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:59,900
That's a thirty pin reduction
on a Mi, and that's actually...

15
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,160
Like, that's a decent
number for consumers.

16
00:01:02,574 --> 00:01:06,982
Actually a little bit of savings
some some some gust to that savings.

17
00:01:07,399 --> 00:01:11,227
Yep. Yeah. Let's let's look at it
because we actually ran a couple

18
00:01:11,227 --> 00:01:14,237
little numbers. To show people
what the savings is gonna be.

19
00:01:14,796 --> 00:01:16,973
Why don't you go ahead and go through
it because this is your specialty.

20
00:01:17,232 --> 00:01:20,402
Oh, yeah. So I mean, I kinda
of use like some round numbers

21
00:01:20,402 --> 00:01:21,559
just so we get some
different ideas.

22
00:01:21,679 --> 00:01:24,074
So I said two hundred and fifty
thousand dollar buyer with

23
00:01:24,074 --> 00:01:24,952
three and a half
percent down.

24
00:01:25,032 --> 00:01:27,706
So that's just your standard like,
hey, you're minimum FHA loan,

25
00:01:27,826 --> 00:01:30,698
but we're gonna say hundred and
fifty thousand is the purchase price.

26
00:01:31,077 --> 00:01:34,473
And currently, the monthly
mi that point eight five is

27
00:01:34,473 --> 00:01:37,270
right out of about a hundred and sixty
nine dollars and ninety eight cents.

28
00:01:37,845 --> 00:01:39,642
The new would be a hundred
and nine ninety eight.

29
00:01:39,762 --> 00:01:43,796
This actually perfect just a super
round sixty dollars straightforward.

30
00:01:43,916 --> 00:01:45,887
What that means is, you
either for the same home,

31
00:01:46,007 --> 00:01:48,623
you save sixty dollars just
because of this change,

32
00:01:49,241 --> 00:01:52,115
or if you wanted to keep
that same payment as before,

33
00:01:52,234 --> 00:01:54,071
you get about eight
thousand in buying power.

34
00:01:54,803 --> 00:01:56,875
Then to give that little bit
differences is, you know...

35
00:01:57,592 --> 00:02:00,244
Let's say four hundred
thousand dollar purchase price.

36
00:02:00,421 --> 00:02:03,830
You now the change is almost
is... You know, almost...

37
00:02:03,950 --> 00:02:05,590
You know, we're talking
ninety five ninety eight,

38
00:02:05,830 --> 00:02:09,350
much bigger change or month
monthly savings on that.

39
00:02:09,430 --> 00:02:10,925
And that's actually a little
bit more buying power.

40
00:02:11,085 --> 00:02:13,725
So twelve thousand five
hundred and just a buying power.

41
00:02:13,925 --> 00:02:16,765
I think, like, you you think
about that on a four hundred

42
00:02:16,765 --> 00:02:19,980
thousand dollar home, which
it's kinda two fifty and our

43
00:02:19,980 --> 00:02:23,340
market is on the lower side
of what kind of buyers is.

44
00:02:24,060 --> 00:02:26,794
And then four hundred is kind
of the eye of the median, like,

45
00:02:26,914 --> 00:02:29,950
in the middle high side of
the median. Right? Correct. Yeah.

46
00:02:30,070 --> 00:02:31,309
We're right there
kind of it's there.

47
00:02:31,469 --> 00:02:34,905
But more buyers are in that four
hundred thousand, I think right now.

48
00:02:36,236 --> 00:02:38,549
Yeah. And a hundred dollars
is a hundred dollars.

49
00:02:38,709 --> 00:02:42,098
Like, I think all of us would like
to save a hundred dollars a month.

50
00:02:42,218 --> 00:02:47,425
I mean, that's almost to take a gas for
my truck. So I'm I'm happy with that.

51
00:02:47,545 --> 00:02:48,785
If I can get
a free tank, like,

52
00:02:48,985 --> 00:02:51,865
that's for doing nothing else
and just being an awesome person,

53
00:02:51,985 --> 00:02:56,016
and and being ready to go when
that change goes into play.

54
00:02:56,275 --> 00:02:58,992
Yeah I mean, that's that's twelve
hundred dollars a year. Yeah.

55
00:02:59,152 --> 00:03:03,116
That's a nice savings. So
and that change doesn't it go

56
00:03:03,116 --> 00:03:06,684
into effect until March twentieth.
So we're about a month ahead.

57
00:03:07,021 --> 00:03:09,669
You know, they've gotta do
the little bit of that P and

58
00:03:09,669 --> 00:03:11,027
give that updates
to the release.

59
00:03:11,147 --> 00:03:14,045
We gotta make sure Hud
gets to have their official

60
00:03:14,064 --> 00:03:18,814
announcement and press conference if
you have president they're little bit.

61
00:03:19,033 --> 00:03:20,831
Right right You know, we
gotta make sure those things

62
00:03:20,831 --> 00:03:22,189
happen before it
to go into effect.

63
00:03:22,269 --> 00:03:24,585
And there's some administrative
pieces obviously as well.

64
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,594
Like, you know, you can't
just change the number of one

65
00:03:27,594 --> 00:03:29,908
system and it change for
everything. So... Yeah.

66
00:03:30,028 --> 00:03:33,421
It's I mean, it really makes sense
because when you looked at the funding,

67
00:03:34,473 --> 00:03:40,976
Fha Mi. It was... The way they
calculate, it was extremely over funded.

68
00:03:41,550 --> 00:03:45,824
Yeah. Very finding. Which
honestly, you know, got...

69
00:03:46,024 --> 00:03:48,861
I understand everyone's
caution, especially, you know,

70
00:03:49,795 --> 00:03:52,429
going back to the to the recession
of, you know, two thousand seven,

71
00:03:52,548 --> 00:03:56,042
two thousand eight when they, you
know, cost them a lot of money.

72
00:03:56,220 --> 00:04:00,970
So better safe than sorry overall.
Definitely better safe than sorry overall.

73
00:04:01,510 --> 00:04:04,070
And then the other
news... It's it's nice,

74
00:04:04,190 --> 00:04:07,564
but it's not making the effect that
I think that they wanted it to.

75
00:04:07,724 --> 00:04:12,035
Unit just before... I mean,
Fha stole all the thunder here,

76
00:04:12,315 --> 00:04:15,428
because I made an announcement
just beforehand but they're

77
00:04:15,428 --> 00:04:18,439
reducing their funding
fee. This is awesome.

78
00:04:18,598 --> 00:04:21,196
So the funding fee
for Va is front.

79
00:04:21,356 --> 00:04:24,513
It's it's kind of like, hey, You don't
have one mortgage insurance with Vm.

80
00:04:24,632 --> 00:04:27,642
We have this funding fee, and
it's a little bit higher And

81
00:04:27,642 --> 00:04:31,188
it was two point three, and
now it's gonna be two point one

82
00:04:31,188 --> 00:04:35,669
five of point one five reduction and
then on sub point use, it was two...

83
00:04:35,828 --> 00:04:39,245
Or three point six. Now it's gonna be
three point three little bit bigger.

84
00:04:39,544 --> 00:04:42,501
And I just... I just wanted to give
you guys just super simple like,

85
00:04:42,741 --> 00:04:46,555
hey. X's and o's, like, you
know, rounding round numbers.

86
00:04:46,715 --> 00:04:50,075
I even look at what it was. I just
kinda went into a prior file and said,

87
00:04:50,195 --> 00:04:53,447
hey, what's it look like You're
talking that drop is about

88
00:04:53,447 --> 00:04:55,525
six hundred dollars
on that funding fee.

89
00:04:55,725 --> 00:05:00,355
But realize how many veterans pay
their funding fee up upfront zero?

90
00:05:00,615 --> 00:05:04,975
Like, nobody does because Va
allows you to put it into the loan

91
00:05:04,975 --> 00:05:08,108
and increase the loan amount
to cover that funding fee very,

92
00:05:08,308 --> 00:05:10,699
rarely do we see veterans
pay that upfront.

93
00:05:11,177 --> 00:05:14,764
And so what happens is it mostly
gets paid in and built into the loan.

94
00:05:14,924 --> 00:05:17,891
So what's that impact? I had
to go to four hundred thousand.

95
00:05:18,010 --> 00:05:19,806
Just try to give a little
bit of an impact.

96
00:05:19,926 --> 00:05:22,760
So you can that Great
Like, you right there.

97
00:05:22,959 --> 00:05:25,210
On this scenario, it was
kind of like, Alright.

98
00:05:25,449 --> 00:05:29,745
Boom, you're saving less than
four dollars a month. Like...

99
00:05:31,003 --> 00:05:33,760
That's one gallon of gas for
your truck, Joe. That's it.

100
00:05:34,095 --> 00:05:37,615
I made this one gallon. So
over the course of the year

101
00:05:37,615 --> 00:05:42,808
you're saving about forty bucks. Or
what is that forty eight dollars?

102
00:05:43,826 --> 00:05:50,115
It's still the savings. Yeah. You know
all the order. Okay. So there is...

103
00:05:50,235 --> 00:05:53,355
I mean, it is a dollar for dollar
savings. So I don't wanna discredit it.

104
00:05:53,475 --> 00:05:57,435
It is the savings. It is a benefit
of veterans because it was again,

105
00:05:57,849 --> 00:06:00,281
they saw that it was
over finding they didn't.

106
00:06:00,401 --> 00:06:01,677
They could pull
back a little bit.

107
00:06:01,796 --> 00:06:04,348
They didn't feel that they had as
much room to pull back as others.

108
00:06:04,706 --> 00:06:08,113
And one thing that I still sit
there and think, Va is still...

109
00:06:08,233 --> 00:06:10,031
Like, it's still a hundred
percent financing.

110
00:06:10,191 --> 00:06:13,307
So note doubt came necessarily
required and it has no

111
00:06:13,307 --> 00:06:18,070
monthly mortgage insurance. So even
though Fha had a bigger adjustment,

112
00:06:18,708 --> 00:06:21,539
if you're if you're eligible
for epi take and Va,

113
00:06:21,779 --> 00:06:24,411
b is still gonna be a better
loan option for you. Oh, yeah.

114
00:06:24,984 --> 00:06:28,157
Is it doesn't have the mortgage insurance.
The monthly mortgage insurance.

115
00:06:28,415 --> 00:06:32,580
Yep. Yep. Completely all day
long. Yeah. All day long. Sound.

116
00:06:32,700 --> 00:06:36,440
So that really was. That was
our good news for the consumers.

117
00:06:37,020 --> 00:06:39,980
But unfortunately, we had to come
back and hit them with a little

118
00:06:39,980 --> 00:06:42,849
bit of not so
good news. Right?

119
00:06:43,306 --> 00:06:46,495
Sometimes I think markets adjust
because they know this news gonna hit.

120
00:06:47,252 --> 00:06:52,277
You he you're what you're you'll
wonder sometimes. And yeah it just...

121
00:06:52,976 --> 00:06:55,093
Alright. We're gonna save
a hundred bucks a month,

122
00:06:55,293 --> 00:07:00,319
but then interest rates have slowly
been creeping up over the past week.

123
00:07:00,537 --> 00:07:04,886
Yep. And you can see, you know,
the valentine's day were six point six two,

124
00:07:05,778 --> 00:07:10,083
And as of yesterday, the average
nationally was six point eight eight.

125
00:07:10,482 --> 00:07:14,763
Yeah. So that little bit of
savings we had gonna get eaten

126
00:07:14,763 --> 00:07:17,635
up by the new by the little
bit higher interest rates yes.

127
00:07:17,795 --> 00:07:21,185
And it's gonna be interesting to see
because if we see this trend continue,

128
00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,677
when you see the movement that
we saw in these markets in

129
00:07:24,677 --> 00:07:29,592
the bond market and so forth, like,
sometimes when see these big jumps,

130
00:07:30,071 --> 00:07:32,562
these investors don't...
Like, they...

131
00:07:32,761 --> 00:07:34,637
They're forced
to increase rate,

132
00:07:34,797 --> 00:07:37,870
but they kinda hold back
more than where they probably

133
00:07:37,870 --> 00:07:39,586
should sometimes because
they're like, crap.

134
00:07:41,077 --> 00:07:45,506
We're already slowing down jump
in a half percent overnight

135
00:07:45,506 --> 00:07:47,540
or in a week or two.
We're gonna be toast.

136
00:07:47,994 --> 00:07:50,230
So then they sit they're say,
let's let's tighten in our

137
00:07:50,230 --> 00:07:53,063
margins even more so that
we can slow how long.

138
00:07:53,143 --> 00:07:56,815
So I think if we see this and we don't
see these markets kind of adjust back,

139
00:07:57,230 --> 00:07:58,906
a little bit pullback
back a little bit.

140
00:07:59,065 --> 00:08:01,100
I I think we're gonna
continue to see these rates.

141
00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:04,452
Even if we stay flat, we're
gonna see these rates creep up

142
00:08:04,452 --> 00:08:07,685
over the next month. Yeah. I
think I think we're gonna stay

143
00:08:09,025 --> 00:08:12,225
stay in this area probably
through the summer.

144
00:08:12,305 --> 00:08:19,403
And the reason why I say that, Main
reason is the Fed, I think there...

145
00:08:20,298 --> 00:08:24,765
As long as that core inflation
number stays where it's sitting.

146
00:08:25,705 --> 00:08:29,905
They're forced to continue to
increase interest rates. Yeah.

147
00:08:30,105 --> 00:08:36,695
They have to. Yeah. We'll reset
at in six point eight eight two.

148
00:08:37,074 --> 00:08:39,471
You know, so there
they're goals too.

149
00:08:39,591 --> 00:08:41,403
And they're they're
far from it,

150
00:08:41,723 --> 00:08:45,638
which means that they're gonna
have to continue to prep you know,

151
00:08:46,358 --> 00:08:48,809
continue that rate increase.
And I think you know,

152
00:08:49,209 --> 00:08:53,200
more of them have come out to
another half a point increase

153
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:57,911
at the next meeting as opposed to
the slower quarter point. Yeah.

154
00:08:59,801 --> 00:09:01,777
Interest. Right? You know,
It just rate increase.

155
00:09:02,075 --> 00:09:06,319
And I think that's that's gonna
continue to force the the bond

156
00:09:06,319 --> 00:09:10,494
market yields to stay to stay
a little bit higher until we

157
00:09:11,312 --> 00:09:14,365
until we can get to that level,
where they can actually say,

158
00:09:14,605 --> 00:09:19,145
okay. Yeah. It's it's really... We've...
The economy's is really slowed down.

159
00:09:20,325 --> 00:09:26,700
You know, you're looking at continued
wage increases. Walmart came out.

160
00:09:27,700 --> 00:09:31,033
They're they're jumping people
from seventeen to seventeen fifty,

161
00:09:31,113 --> 00:09:32,112
which doesn't
seem like a lot.

162
00:09:32,192 --> 00:09:36,067
But when you look at the number of
employees that that Walmart has.

163
00:09:36,227 --> 00:09:38,718
That's that's that's
okay. That number. Yeah.

164
00:09:38,878 --> 00:09:43,621
Then Home Depot also came out and
announced an increase in wages.

165
00:09:44,737 --> 00:09:48,997
Yeah. So the wage pressure is
continuing to increase which

166
00:09:49,931 --> 00:09:51,763
unfortunately is gonna
continue to, you know,

167
00:09:51,962 --> 00:09:55,885
force that that inflation number.
Up a little bit. And until we...

168
00:09:56,085 --> 00:10:00,276
Until we hit that, we're just...
It it it's gonna continue to do it.

169
00:10:00,436 --> 00:10:02,812
And I think one thing we're
gonna see later from the numbers.

170
00:10:03,883 --> 00:10:10,089
That's really important is how
rates sensitive buyers are. Yeah.

171
00:10:10,347 --> 00:10:12,437
You know. They are
extremely rate sensitive.

172
00:10:12,596 --> 00:10:15,709
And I think we're gonna see that
when we get into the numbers

173
00:10:15,709 --> 00:10:18,222
here in a in a just
a moment. Mh.

174
00:10:18,382 --> 00:10:24,856
So It's it's a fine balancing game right
now, you know, going into the spring.

175
00:10:25,454 --> 00:10:28,005
You know, when we go in there,
we start looking at our numbers,

176
00:10:28,539 --> 00:10:29,975
Let me hop back
up to the top.

177
00:10:32,926 --> 00:10:36,116
And this is something we have
mentioned is that mid January,

178
00:10:36,236 --> 00:10:37,990
we saw we saw those
interest rates dropped.

179
00:10:38,324 --> 00:10:43,742
We got down, you know, low sixes
around the sixes. And what did we do?

180
00:10:44,459 --> 00:10:49,702
We jumped to about four hundred... We
had four hundred closing last week.

181
00:10:50,939 --> 00:10:55,051
In January, January, we were sitting
at that two hundred per week level.

182
00:10:57,140 --> 00:11:00,091
And when you looked at the number
nationally for January,

183
00:11:00,251 --> 00:11:04,877
it was the lowest number of sales,
home sales in, like, twenty years.

184
00:11:05,569 --> 00:11:09,158
Yeah. And they all they're
projecting maybe four million...

185
00:11:09,238 --> 00:11:11,112
You know, it's not
a small number,

186
00:11:11,231 --> 00:11:14,700
but four million total sales nationally
for the for twenty twenty three.

187
00:11:15,275 --> 00:11:18,795
Yep, which is a low number. You know,
we're we're staying consistent.

188
00:11:18,915 --> 00:11:21,515
You know, we we jump up and down
on the median price little bit.

189
00:11:21,675 --> 00:11:25,245
We're sitting right in that four
hundred thousand dollar mark...

190
00:11:25,325 --> 00:11:28,676
You know, plus or minus a little
bit. But here's the thing again.

191
00:11:29,633 --> 00:11:34,575
Inventory dropping. It's just been
a consistent drop in the inventory.

192
00:11:35,790 --> 00:11:37,943
And then overall
prices, you know,

193
00:11:38,621 --> 00:11:42,790
our original list to final
a list we're consistent right in

194
00:11:42,790 --> 00:11:46,070
that ninety two percent mark and
I have been for the past month.

195
00:11:46,870 --> 00:11:51,825
You know, and ninety six percent roughly
for the final list to sales price.

196
00:11:52,005 --> 00:11:53,865
And again, we're
sitting consistent.

197
00:11:55,205 --> 00:11:58,780
Then when you look at it on
a graph, you can see how you know,

198
00:11:58,980 --> 00:12:03,500
here's here's the month of January,
two hundred two fifty, two fifty,

199
00:12:03,980 --> 00:12:06,540
you know, two twenty
five. We jumped.

200
00:12:07,354 --> 00:12:09,452
At the end of the month,
which we always do.

201
00:12:10,270 --> 00:12:13,106
And then we we pull back
a little bit but came back up.

202
00:12:13,266 --> 00:12:17,215
And that's that I truly
believe is all rate sensitivity

203
00:12:17,832 --> 00:12:19,269
because people saw
that six percent.

204
00:12:19,389 --> 00:12:24,950
So, you know, a little breath of
fresh air, hey, you know, six percent,

205
00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:29,970
I can go ahead and pull the trigger,
but six point seven five seven percent,

206
00:12:30,130 --> 00:12:32,658
I'm gonna have to
wait. Yep. You know,

207
00:12:32,898 --> 00:12:36,614
that that difference in the payment
is is just making, you know,

208
00:12:36,774 --> 00:12:39,650
it it's making a lot of
a lot of people hesitant.

209
00:12:40,345 --> 00:12:43,625
And what and we talked about
this a lot is is the uncertainty.

210
00:12:43,785 --> 00:12:47,465
Right? It's our rate's gonna go back
down. Are they here? Where do they stay?

211
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,996
Where we saw rates kinda drop
a little bit, and they just sit there.

212
00:12:51,556 --> 00:12:54,153
People were okay that rates
were higher than when they were

213
00:12:54,153 --> 00:12:56,230
a year ago or higher than
where they are two years.

214
00:12:56,804 --> 00:12:59,481
But when it's moving up and
moving down and moving up, like,

215
00:12:59,641 --> 00:13:01,718
people go when it's on
the way up, they go okay.

216
00:13:01,837 --> 00:13:04,849
Maybe it's gonna go back down
like it did three other times

217
00:13:04,849 --> 00:13:09,284
in the last six months. Mh. And that's
where I feel like we get this like,

218
00:13:09,763 --> 00:13:12,320
hold back of not only a losing
buyers because rates are

219
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,735
going up and it they're
being priced out.

220
00:13:14,935 --> 00:13:17,215
We're losing buyers because they're
sitting on the sideline going,

221
00:13:17,375 --> 00:13:22,508
where we go. Yep. And you get
you read the headlines and

222
00:13:22,508 --> 00:13:25,824
it's all over the place.
It it really is. You know.

223
00:13:26,184 --> 00:13:27,941
And one of the people
I I've just...

224
00:13:28,061 --> 00:13:31,571
I've got disagree with,
respectfully, at this time is very.

225
00:13:32,189 --> 00:13:36,061
You know, it was a very well known
person in our in our industry.

226
00:13:36,301 --> 00:13:38,935
No. I'm. I I do... I'm just... I've
just... I gotta disagree with them.

227
00:13:39,429 --> 00:13:42,497
Yeah Know he was here's right to
a point with the pullback, you know,

228
00:13:42,616 --> 00:13:45,285
the the initial inflation
rate of eight point two. Yeah.

229
00:13:45,365 --> 00:13:49,167
It's gonna pull back when
that pulled pulls back our our

230
00:13:49,167 --> 00:13:51,081
interest rates should
fall. Anyway right.

231
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,868
What the problem is, he was
projecting continued decrease

232
00:13:54,868 --> 00:13:57,635
in the inflation right.
Mh. We're not getting it.

233
00:13:58,353 --> 00:14:02,382
And until we get it, rates will not
pull back. They can't pull that.

234
00:14:02,621 --> 00:14:06,555
Yeah. And you look at what's happening
here, we have, like, you know,

235
00:14:07,115 --> 00:14:09,075
you see inflation
not pulling back.

236
00:14:09,155 --> 00:14:12,049
We're seeing like the jobless
jobless claims report,

237
00:14:12,129 --> 00:14:14,966
like the it just came out. And they're
saying there's a small decrease.

238
00:14:15,125 --> 00:14:18,002
Like, like, okay. So less
people are losing their job,

239
00:14:18,082 --> 00:14:20,815
The whether it's broken mirrors,
I don't know. But, like, Alright.

240
00:14:20,935 --> 00:14:22,535
So less people are
losing their jobs.

241
00:14:22,695 --> 00:14:26,375
We're still super strong, but, you know,
we can't say for a fact that we know.

242
00:14:26,535 --> 00:14:28,935
It's a lot harder to
find a job right now.

243
00:14:29,510 --> 00:14:33,330
If you had of work, like, that's
definitely gotten harder. But...

244
00:14:33,670 --> 00:14:37,410
It's hard to be like, hey, inflation
up, but employment is still,

245
00:14:37,670 --> 00:14:42,365
you know, unemployment it's inside all
time low. Like where's that balance?

246
00:14:42,485 --> 00:14:44,605
Like, you almost... Sometimes
like, you need, like,

247
00:14:45,245 --> 00:14:48,059
more people to lose their job
to help taper for some this,

248
00:14:48,179 --> 00:14:51,676
but you don't want that for anybody,
but you don't... Yeah. And...

249
00:14:53,213 --> 00:14:56,170
Yeah. Feds looking at that employment
number going... It's still too strong.

250
00:14:56,545 --> 00:15:00,065
It's still too strong. And and
that's the hard part is the fence

251
00:15:00,065 --> 00:15:03,185
looking at all this data and
they're saying it's still so I

252
00:15:03,185 --> 00:15:06,880
think like he said earlier,
and this we're gonna see we're

253
00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,140
probably gonna see fifty
bp. I think we are.

254
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:13,880
And they're saying possibly three
more adjustments increases this year.

255
00:15:14,934 --> 00:15:20,127
From the fed, which the the hope
we did a quarter back, you know,

256
00:15:20,367 --> 00:15:27,009
a month ago was, like, we're finally
seeing it slow down are the pivot.

257
00:15:27,288 --> 00:15:30,641
And that was placed
really quick.

258
00:15:32,054 --> 00:15:35,449
You know, and that's all of like
a day or two for power say hey guys,

259
00:15:35,649 --> 00:15:38,605
take your expectations,
which then drove rates up.

260
00:15:39,737 --> 00:15:42,210
You know, on the mortgage
side we saw how to go and and

261
00:15:42,210 --> 00:15:44,842
it's like where we at
now, I think that's...

262
00:15:45,001 --> 00:15:47,474
I think ultimately
until we see, you know,

263
00:15:48,032 --> 00:15:52,920
it's we want a soft landing
but the Feds saying, hey.

264
00:15:53,039 --> 00:15:57,008
We want a soft landing, but we also
wanna see some turmoil. Or yeah.

265
00:15:57,128 --> 00:15:58,665
We wanna we want
some turbulence.

266
00:15:59,281 --> 00:16:02,312
Like, we wanna land this softly, but
we need to see some turbulence too.

267
00:16:02,671 --> 00:16:04,266
Yep. There's gonna...
There's gonna be paying.

268
00:16:04,346 --> 00:16:06,714
I mean, they flat out said,
hey there we're we've gotta

269
00:16:06,714 --> 00:16:11,185
have a little bit pain. Yeah. Able
to do able to pull back. Yeah.

270
00:16:11,544 --> 00:16:12,423
The... Quite
honestly, though,

271
00:16:12,542 --> 00:16:19,677
the the thing that is really
helping sellers at this point

272
00:16:20,133 --> 00:16:23,734
maintain their values
is right here. Yeah.

273
00:16:23,894 --> 00:16:26,411
And we'd say it every week and
we've said it every week for

274
00:16:26,411 --> 00:16:32,980
the past couple months, inventory. Yep.
Our inventory. We have just been on a...

275
00:16:33,220 --> 00:16:37,860
Since since November, we been on
a constant decrease in inventory.

276
00:16:38,380 --> 00:16:42,271
Mh. Every single week where
you're dropping our inventory.

277
00:16:42,790 --> 00:16:46,345
And as long as that inventory
continues to drop, you,

278
00:16:47,477 --> 00:16:51,045
the the prices aren't we're
not gonna see that decrease

279
00:16:51,422 --> 00:16:53,573
that other parts of
the country have have seen.

280
00:16:54,131 --> 00:16:56,421
You know, you know, other
parts of the country,

281
00:16:56,540 --> 00:17:00,712
their their inventories jumped,
you know, a lot more than ours.

282
00:17:00,850 --> 00:17:02,965
And then, you know, we're
an constant decrease.

283
00:17:03,660 --> 00:17:07,820
So we've got all these people
coming in and we're just...

284
00:17:07,980 --> 00:17:11,975
We don't have the inventory
of homes. Forum them. You yep?

285
00:17:12,755 --> 00:17:15,535
You know, and and it's the same
thing even with rental properties.

286
00:17:15,995 --> 00:17:18,275
There's no rental properties
for these people and that's

287
00:17:18,275 --> 00:17:21,787
why we're continuously see all
these Apartments being built.

288
00:17:22,086 --> 00:17:27,794
Yep. You know, for us, for us to see
a a a push downward in home values,

289
00:17:28,632 --> 00:17:33,156
a real push, that inventory
gotta got shoot up. Know.

290
00:17:33,315 --> 00:17:36,746
We've gotta get a thousand, you
know, fifteen hundred home increase.

291
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:42,055
But why when you looked at
the numbers, so I saw graph yesterday,

292
00:17:42,874 --> 00:17:47,403
seventy five percent of homeowners
have an interest rate of

293
00:17:47,403 --> 00:17:56,147
three percent or lower. Seventy five
percent Yeah. They're not moving.

294
00:17:56,346 --> 00:18:00,135
I don't care. They have something
that has to happen. Yeah.

295
00:18:00,335 --> 00:18:05,345
You've got, like, increase jab
relocation, need more space.

296
00:18:05,465 --> 00:18:06,505
Like, you gotta
have a reason.

297
00:18:06,625 --> 00:18:10,225
You you're losing those buyers that
are just like, how what a new house?

298
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,796
Like, hey. I'm like... I like another
bedroom, but I don't need one.

299
00:18:14,356 --> 00:18:17,232
Like god I like a home
office, but I don't need one.

300
00:18:17,432 --> 00:18:20,963
Like, it's hard to be like, oh,
Not only do I have to pay way more?

301
00:18:21,082 --> 00:18:23,519
Yeah. I could sell my home for
more, but I got a pay reward.

302
00:18:24,158 --> 00:18:28,444
And then I got a monthly pay
name way more because interest

303
00:18:28,444 --> 00:18:32,588
rates I'm lose mine by my two
point seven five or two point

304
00:18:32,588 --> 00:18:37,991
two five or two point three five like,
You. Seems like buyers one exactly.

305
00:18:38,071 --> 00:18:43,358
You got a three. Like... Yep.
And and you're just you're

306
00:18:43,358 --> 00:18:47,428
just gonna see people sit.
And one of the things you you

307
00:18:47,428 --> 00:18:50,221
are seeing though is the increase
in home equity lines or credit.

308
00:18:50,795 --> 00:18:52,553
Yeah. Because people are doing
exactly what you said, yeah.

309
00:18:52,632 --> 00:18:55,149
I'd I love that additional
bedroom. Maybe I'm better off.

310
00:18:55,909 --> 00:18:58,266
Borrowing against
the equity in my home. Yep.

311
00:18:58,466 --> 00:19:04,385
And doing it, you know, just building
on here. Yep. Yeah. Or you know what?

312
00:19:04,584 --> 00:19:08,589
Yeah. Do I need a bigger house
what I like in your house yeah,

313
00:19:08,708 --> 00:19:11,780
but let me just do some renovations.
You know, let me redo the...

314
00:19:11,980 --> 00:19:16,907
Let redo that bathroom. Y. And I mean,
all the contractors I'm talking to,

315
00:19:17,027 --> 00:19:19,983
they're still they're still
extremely lousy. Swamped.

316
00:19:20,982 --> 00:19:25,211
And a lot of it is this renovation
type work. That's going on for them.

317
00:19:25,987 --> 00:19:28,403
Exactly. So I
mean, it's just...

318
00:19:29,219 --> 00:19:34,619
That that is the Golden parachute right
now for sellers. Is the inventory.

319
00:19:35,456 --> 00:19:38,327
And you know, you you... I get questions,
you know, a good time to sell.

320
00:19:38,407 --> 00:19:41,572
And it's like, you know what?
It actually still is. Yep.

321
00:19:41,731 --> 00:19:47,212
If you present your house right, it's
clean, present and price correctly,

322
00:19:47,509 --> 00:19:51,707
it's gonna sell. Yep. I just
got a one point five million

323
00:19:51,707 --> 00:19:58,615
dollar home in double Chase under
contract in six days. Six days.

324
00:19:59,451 --> 00:20:05,890
Yep. And we have multiple people. Mh.
I I was actually taken about wow.

325
00:20:06,010 --> 00:20:09,970
Hope. This is wonderful. You know.
Yep It wasn't expecting it though.

326
00:20:10,650 --> 00:20:11,490
Because when you
look, you know,

327
00:20:11,945 --> 00:20:14,262
up here and you look at the days
on market average stays on

328
00:20:14,262 --> 00:20:19,535
market is jumped to sixty three or
sixty eight. Excuse me. You plan that.

329
00:20:20,030 --> 00:20:23,630
As a as a realtor is okay.
Average is sixty eight.

330
00:20:23,870 --> 00:20:27,850
What what can I do to make sure
that we're below that average?

331
00:20:28,030 --> 00:20:32,991
Yep. So it's just...
It's it's gonna...

332
00:20:33,429 --> 00:20:38,016
That right there is gonna continue to
help the sellers overall in the market.

333
00:20:39,708 --> 00:20:43,044
And we're just... You know, just
watch every week, watch the numbers.

334
00:20:43,343 --> 00:20:48,029
I think we're gonna see the the sales
numbers For March we're gonna drop.

335
00:20:48,189 --> 00:20:50,224
We're probably gonna drop
back down to two hundred two

336
00:20:50,224 --> 00:20:53,536
fifty with the century
rate spike. Yep.

337
00:20:54,629 --> 00:20:58,845
And this is where I think you and I
education wise for our for our clients,

338
00:20:59,185 --> 00:21:02,781
we've got go back into the, you
know, education of the rate by now.

339
00:21:03,380 --> 00:21:06,429
Yep know, offer the different
offer the differences.

340
00:21:06,509 --> 00:21:08,943
You know, do we do a do we
do a permit right by down?

341
00:21:09,063 --> 00:21:15,167
Do we do a two one buy down? I really
haven't gotten into the three two ones.

342
00:21:15,546 --> 00:21:24,630
I'm not so confident in in presenting
those? Two one. Yeah. Permanent?

343
00:21:25,749 --> 00:21:28,466
Yes. Definitely. Yeah. I mean,
the two one definitely...

344
00:21:28,546 --> 00:21:31,352
It's I think the two makes it...
I mean, we see the three two one.

345
00:21:31,472 --> 00:21:36,135
Like, that's like I I I've seen
one seller being willing to

346
00:21:36,135 --> 00:21:39,865
give a credit that. But
the two one does make sense.

347
00:21:40,025 --> 00:21:43,625
I do like, you know,
a permanent buy down too.

348
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,560
It's hard because I do think we're
gonna see that that drop in rates.

349
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,815
So I... And and the one thing
that I do like about two by

350
00:21:52,815 --> 00:21:56,295
down is simply the fact that
they don't lose the money if

351
00:21:56,295 --> 00:21:58,375
they refinance because
it's sitting in an escrow.

352
00:21:58,535 --> 00:22:00,495
So it's not like it's
a hard loss of money.

353
00:22:01,109 --> 00:22:04,026
So if you go down to reduce their
parental payoff off where it can,

354
00:22:04,106 --> 00:22:06,703
you know, cover out a closing
cost like, it's it's there.

355
00:22:07,143 --> 00:22:09,460
You know, So they got
six k left in that.

356
00:22:09,954 --> 00:22:12,624
Escrow for the two one buy
now program because they ref

357
00:22:12,624 --> 00:22:17,645
refinance at nine months. They that
money is still being applied somewhere.

358
00:22:18,179 --> 00:22:21,645
Yep. Yep. That is that's
a huge benefit of it. Mh.

359
00:22:21,885 --> 00:22:25,431
So thank you for joining us. Those
are our numbers for the week.

360
00:22:26,164 --> 00:22:30,072
Appreciate your time again, Joe.
As always. Take care everyone.

361
00:22:30,231 --> 00:22:32,704
We will see you
next Thursday. Good.