Shocking Twist: Fed Adjusts Unemployment Numbers Out of Nowhere

 

 

Shocking Twist: Fed Adjusts Unemployment Numbers Out of Nowhere - Was Powell's Plan All Along?

 

Jerome Powell has stated several times his goal is to increase unemployment to 4.5% by the end of the year.  This week's ADP National Employment Report shows signs that his plan is working.  How will this affect the housing market going forward? Join Joseph Dionne of Appli Home Loans and I Thursday morning at ten o'clock as we look at the latest economic factors affecting the housing market.  We will try to answer all these questions and more

 

Transcript:

1 00:00:06,411 --> 00:00:11,345 Well, Jerome Powell said he wanted to drive up the unemployment 2 00:00:11,345 --> 00:00:13,665 rate to about four and a half percent. 3 00:00:14,918 --> 00:00:18,946 And looking at the numbers coming out and a total surprise 4 00:00:18,946 --> 00:00:22,016 this morning from the from the federal government. 5 00:00:22,774 --> 00:00:28,360 Jerome powell plan may have been working all along. Wait a minute. 6 00:00:31,909 --> 00:00:34,386 Interesting. We got a big surprise today, 7 00:00:34,586 --> 00:00:39,061 but let's start off and let's go back to yesterday in this headline right here. 8 00:00:39,835 --> 00:00:44,550 The Adp national employment report which always comes out 9 00:00:44,550 --> 00:00:48,047 before the government report. That's right. Private payroll. 10 00:00:49,279 --> 00:00:54,104 They were expecting about two hundred thousand new new jobs. 11 00:00:54,503 --> 00:00:58,172 And we actually dropped to a hundred and forty five thousand. 12 00:01:00,301 --> 00:01:06,326 So no, you know, so we seen new job creation go down? Correct. 13 00:01:07,140 --> 00:01:14,220 In this narrative of this super strong jobs market is bullshit. 14 00:01:18,192 --> 00:01:20,329 We're we're gonna go that far. We're gonna call the bullshit. 15 00:01:20,828 --> 00:01:22,825 Yeah. I think we're gonna call bullshit this one. 16 00:01:24,119 --> 00:01:27,755 I I I'm sure we're gonna dive into this, but like, that's all... 17 00:01:28,115 --> 00:01:31,631 It's always interesting in Adp and they do their numbers and then who's... 18 00:01:31,751 --> 00:01:34,182 Who do they always compare two right. 19 00:01:35,117 --> 00:01:38,368 And they're almost always, like, locks step. 20 00:01:39,503 --> 00:01:44,724 But they've not been locks that lately. No. No. They have not. 21 00:01:45,221 --> 00:01:51,625 They have not. And, you know, this The other thing that came 22 00:01:51,625 --> 00:01:57,145 out and another headline to came out is that for the first time in two years, 23 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:04,912 the number of job openings has dropped. Mh. And it's dropped below ten million. 24 00:02:05,391 --> 00:02:07,441 Yeah. Well I think that can be... 25 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,470 We talked about this a lot last last time I was on, 26 00:02:10,589 --> 00:02:12,861 which I know I missed last week, but the week before that, 27 00:02:12,981 --> 00:02:17,467 we talked about how the service industry was starting to finally 28 00:02:17,467 --> 00:02:22,980 get back to prep pandemic levels, so it wouldn't continue to prop up. 29 00:02:24,114 --> 00:02:27,190 This this job creation market. Right? Right. 30 00:02:27,470 --> 00:02:30,426 So I I think we're clearly seeing that now. 31 00:02:30,586 --> 00:02:33,937 Like, service levels service not hiring the way it was. 32 00:02:34,515 --> 00:02:37,631 All of a sudden job creations doesn't look as strong as it was. 33 00:02:38,030 --> 00:02:41,321 Correct. And those are some of the high paying jobs the financial jobs, 34 00:02:41,441 --> 00:02:43,039 the programming jobs. You know, 35 00:02:43,199 --> 00:02:47,650 there's there's a lot of those jobs that are just they're falling away, 36 00:02:47,810 --> 00:02:52,570 and the openings are falling away. Yep. So we've got. 37 00:02:53,265 --> 00:02:58,345 Roughly four million people who quit their jobs without having another job. 38 00:02:59,025 --> 00:03:03,178 Mh. And they're seeing Well, maybe there's not as many 39 00:03:03,358 --> 00:03:10,230 opportunities out there as we have thought previously. So like possible. 40 00:03:10,845 --> 00:03:14,081 Yeah. But this is the big... This is the big one today. 41 00:03:14,361 --> 00:03:19,795 This just came out of the blue. And it could be because it's Thursday. 42 00:03:21,410 --> 00:03:26,290 The market's closing tomorrow. Oh, wait. Wait holiday weekend. 43 00:03:26,490 --> 00:03:30,383 We so so instead of a Friday news dump we do it Thursday news dump. 44 00:03:30,503 --> 00:03:34,160 We do a Thursday new dump. Hey take a advantage of the three day weekend. 45 00:03:35,618 --> 00:03:38,295 Nobody will remember. There's so much going on this weekend. 46 00:03:38,710 --> 00:03:41,841 We won't even know. Exactly. Exactly. 47 00:03:42,657 --> 00:03:46,884 So this is the United States initial Jobs claim. 48 00:03:48,694 --> 00:03:51,528 This is going back to the beginning of the year. Yep? 49 00:03:52,646 --> 00:03:56,278 Notice the numbers two hundred one ninety four one ninety nine two twenty. 50 00:03:56,558 --> 00:04:03,731 Look at these numbers. Okay. Now this is just a quick look at last week's. 51 00:04:04,188 --> 00:04:11,315 Mh. April first. Previous previous was a hundred and ninety one thousand. 52 00:04:12,555 --> 00:04:20,425 Mh. They revised it this morning. To two hundred and forty six thousand. 53 00:04:24,855 --> 00:04:29,575 Just fifty k off. Not much. Not much. 54 00:04:30,710 --> 00:04:36,190 Just fifty thousand fifty thousand more unemployed people than 55 00:04:36,190 --> 00:04:42,005 originally calculated. It's a rounding error. It's... Oh. Yeah. 56 00:04:42,325 --> 00:04:49,247 Because, you know, what we did is We round it wrong for the entire year so far. 57 00:04:50,563 --> 00:04:53,712 And things are the numbers before the revisions came out this morning. 58 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:00,752 Everything here is sitting under two hundred thousand. 59 00:05:01,191 --> 00:05:06,437 It isn't that interesting. So that way, all before the revised number, 60 00:05:06,597 --> 00:05:09,274 so they revised numbers for the whole year. Right? 61 00:05:09,793 --> 00:05:14,061 They've revised numbers for the whole year And usually I hear 62 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,470 track one or two weeks, like but they went back and said, 63 00:05:17,669 --> 00:05:21,936 actually this whole year we kinda wear a little bit off. We screwed up. 64 00:05:23,030 --> 00:05:26,950 So look at these. One ninety two one eighty six, one eighty three. 65 00:05:27,870 --> 00:05:31,903 And then let's go back. To where the numbers are now? 66 00:05:32,282 --> 00:05:35,779 Oh, one ninety four, one ninety nine two twenty two sixteen, 67 00:05:36,238 --> 00:05:37,876 two seventeen, two twenty one. 68 00:05:39,409 --> 00:05:43,599 They basically revised unemployment numbers up about three 69 00:05:43,599 --> 00:05:49,321 hundred thousand since the beginning of the year. Yep. So that's about it. 70 00:05:49,441 --> 00:05:53,692 I think Cath, I think it was about a point two percent increase 71 00:05:54,349 --> 00:06:00,920 in the unemployment rate. Point two is not big. Point two. Yeah. 72 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:08,605 It's not big. But It it changes... It changes the whole dynamics of the market. 73 00:06:08,725 --> 00:06:11,638 The conversation. Right? It's a little bit different conversation. 74 00:06:12,277 --> 00:06:17,641 Right? It's always interesting to be like, wait and and I I... 75 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,712 You know, I'm I asked questions and I think right A lot of people do. 76 00:06:21,872 --> 00:06:25,805 Right? Like, and it's like Why are we just now coming out and 77 00:06:25,805 --> 00:06:28,785 realizing that the numbers from three months ago were wrong 78 00:06:28,885 --> 00:06:30,245 And two months ago were wrong. 79 00:06:30,779 --> 00:06:33,292 Correct Like, why are those all being, like revised up? 80 00:06:33,611 --> 00:06:42,515 What's what were we trying to hide? Or what a bank run? Possible. 81 00:06:43,375 --> 00:06:50,183 Could you be trying not to scare people for a bank run? But that just happened. 82 00:06:50,263 --> 00:06:53,416 It already happened, like, wait wait, when already happen. 83 00:06:53,615 --> 00:06:57,225 So now we can come back and correct everything. 84 00:06:57,465 --> 00:07:01,185 Correct everything because now we've got pass that little bit of... 85 00:07:01,345 --> 00:07:03,465 We were able to fix this and kinda mu it over. 86 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,695 But it is still interesting because banks are seeing significant 87 00:07:07,714 --> 00:07:10,670 amount of withdrawals. Like, that that news is like, 88 00:07:10,830 --> 00:07:15,185 it's crazy every bank is seeing less deposits more withdraws. 89 00:07:15,405 --> 00:07:20,297 Like, the baby like, there is a lot of loss confidence in 90 00:07:20,297 --> 00:07:24,003 the banking sector without having with a lot of these banks, 91 00:07:24,202 --> 00:07:28,281 not actually having to be... They were one they're only a handful 92 00:07:28,281 --> 00:07:31,828 of negatively impacted. When the whole sector as a whole is 93 00:07:31,828 --> 00:07:35,096 feeling that blow right now. Yeah. Yeah. People have lost confidence. 94 00:07:35,789 --> 00:07:39,344 Mh. But what happens when they lose confidence? Where do they go? 95 00:07:43,154 --> 00:07:50,826 Treasuries. Yep. Treasuries. And has this benefited us? Yes. 96 00:07:50,986 --> 00:07:57,070 It has. It's just gonna get home buyers? Yes, it is. Because what happens? 97 00:07:57,828 --> 00:08:01,780 People get scared, and they run to the place where they feel the most safety. 98 00:08:02,353 --> 00:08:06,799 You know Two areas you see where you see the most safety are 99 00:08:06,936 --> 00:08:13,340 people feel Us treasury. Because fortunately, we we've never defaulted yep, 100 00:08:13,820 --> 00:08:18,940 on our treasuries. And when they... When more people go in, yields go down. 101 00:08:19,395 --> 00:08:23,475 Yep. You to be as attractive. Like right take these rates we 102 00:08:23,475 --> 00:08:29,680 can drop these rates which drops mortgage rates. So drops mortgage rates. 103 00:08:30,159 --> 00:08:32,910 There correlations. It doesn't actually... There's correlations there. 104 00:08:33,070 --> 00:08:37,789 Yep. Yep. Exactly. So it's helping for the home buyer. 105 00:08:37,949 --> 00:08:40,580 It's helping for the home buyer. Overall. 106 00:08:41,377 --> 00:08:45,618 But it does show that the economy's is not a strong as we 107 00:08:45,618 --> 00:08:51,008 thought it as we thought it was overall. Because the other thing and I was... 108 00:08:51,167 --> 00:08:57,445 I got this watching gentleman who does who who watches all the charts. 109 00:08:58,202 --> 00:09:01,930 Germ analyst. I mean, just I can never do it if my eyes were bug out. 110 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,757 Nope. But story you went back. 111 00:09:07,754 --> 00:09:14,721 Recession wise and went through every the fed versus the two year treasury. 112 00:09:15,560 --> 00:09:19,995 Okay? And historically, you can tell when the fed's gonna pivot. 113 00:09:20,809 --> 00:09:24,862 And what that is, if you go back historically is when the yield 114 00:09:25,439 --> 00:09:30,625 on the two year treasury goes below the fed fund rate, Yep. 115 00:09:31,005 --> 00:09:35,605 They plateau, and it stays. And look at that, look at that. 116 00:09:35,805 --> 00:09:40,980 Look what we just did. And That was a sharp. That was up... Yes. 117 00:09:42,020 --> 00:09:46,412 Ignites that one. And here we are six months. We've broke it. 118 00:09:48,543 --> 00:09:52,768 So I think what we're gonna do is I think the fed holds. 119 00:09:54,340 --> 00:10:02,100 I think all of sudden, the revised numbers with the unemployment plus this Mh. 120 00:10:02,755 --> 00:10:06,915 Gives the federal reason to hold. Yep. I think so. I think you're right. 121 00:10:07,635 --> 00:10:11,075 And looking at the looking at the bank, I called the vegas numbers, 122 00:10:11,235 --> 00:10:18,115 the Fed watch. We're actually pushing more to no change for the next meeting. 123 00:10:18,913 --> 00:10:23,205 In really man. Yeah. I think I I I think you're right. 124 00:10:23,925 --> 00:10:27,045 On that, we're we're probably not gonna see a major change. 125 00:10:29,652 --> 00:10:30,888 You know, and it's definitely interesting. 126 00:10:31,047 --> 00:10:32,523 Looking at everything, You know that... 127 00:10:32,602 --> 00:10:35,553 You know, when we look at, I look a lot mostly at the ten year 128 00:10:35,553 --> 00:10:41,905 t and then and then the mds is and the ten year is sitting 129 00:10:42,645 --> 00:10:46,994 well below a lot of threshold numbers, specifically, 130 00:10:47,691 --> 00:10:50,524 in the last since this week, we dropped below the two hundred 131 00:10:50,524 --> 00:10:53,413 day moving average. So we're below the two hundred, 132 00:10:53,453 --> 00:10:56,150 to one hundred and the fifty, the twenty five. Like, we're below them all. 133 00:10:56,329 --> 00:11:00,838 Yeah. And we're sitting below. Like we we... 134 00:11:01,017 --> 00:11:05,088 We've we we played with that for a couple times, 135 00:11:05,208 --> 00:11:09,974 but now it's like we're starting days below and ending days below So we've got. 136 00:11:10,134 --> 00:11:14,729 We're sitting on a couple levels that if we break below, 137 00:11:14,848 --> 00:11:18,299 we can see those notes go even further down. Yeah. Yeah. 138 00:11:18,419 --> 00:11:23,162 And that's that's what a lot of people may not know is is a lot 139 00:11:23,162 --> 00:11:27,465 of times you watch those two hundred day averages. For breakouts. 140 00:11:28,205 --> 00:11:30,005 You see you'll see that resistance. 141 00:11:30,565 --> 00:11:34,696 You don't either above or below and It's interesting interesting 142 00:11:34,696 --> 00:11:39,659 because last Friday, gold broke their two hundred day average to the upside. 143 00:11:39,956 --> 00:11:43,945 Mh. And gold... Broke above the two thousand dollar mark, 144 00:11:44,365 --> 00:11:49,205 which a lot people were looking at, you know, as as an indicator. 145 00:11:49,860 --> 00:11:54,180 So that broke up and at same time treasury bills, 146 00:11:54,380 --> 00:11:58,400 another another place of safety broke well below. The. 147 00:11:59,035 --> 00:12:02,111 And we're holding below that two hundred day average. Yep. 148 00:12:02,590 --> 00:12:05,626 And usually, like you said, usually, when it when it when you break, 149 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:10,816 it can be... It can be a good steep break downwards. Mh. 150 00:12:11,474 --> 00:12:15,922 And I think with the nervous nest, the feeling that, you know, 151 00:12:16,002 --> 00:12:19,711 the county is not as strong as as people are saying it is. 152 00:12:20,668 --> 00:12:23,101 I think we're gonna see that continued flight and safety, 153 00:12:23,220 --> 00:12:24,970 which is gonna continue to help rates. 154 00:12:27,661 --> 00:12:32,325 Which which for the housing market can be really good, 155 00:12:32,485 --> 00:12:34,652 but the scary part is you know, we... 156 00:12:34,811 --> 00:12:38,437 I remember we're saying back last August that the one thing 157 00:12:38,437 --> 00:12:45,011 that's been holding up this market is the low unemployment. Mh. 158 00:12:46,306 --> 00:12:48,321 And if that employment number spikes, 159 00:12:49,018 --> 00:12:54,461 I think where you can see Well well we're gonna see your shift of inventory up. 160 00:12:55,500 --> 00:13:00,107 Mh. Which should help keep key prices either at where their 161 00:13:00,107 --> 00:13:02,977 app or push them down a little bit more. Yeah. 162 00:13:03,695 --> 00:13:07,483 Because that's, you know, going into into Orlando. 163 00:13:07,642 --> 00:13:11,624 That's that comes out to be the biggest problem we keep having. 164 00:13:12,319 --> 00:13:17,516 And is the is the inventory. I mean, 165 00:13:17,955 --> 00:13:21,947 this past week was phenomenal for for the Orlando market. 166 00:13:22,586 --> 00:13:25,995 We jumped from four hundred forty four sales to prior week to 167 00:13:25,995 --> 00:13:29,390 five hundred nineteen. You know, that's a big jump. 168 00:13:31,148 --> 00:13:35,318 You know, or at our medium price is staying level as, you know, 169 00:13:35,557 --> 00:13:38,993 staying our excuse, our average price is staying level. Mh. 170 00:13:39,912 --> 00:13:43,678 But our inventory it's it decreases again. Now we're kind of... 171 00:13:43,838 --> 00:13:47,986 We'll kinda hit that flat line, but going in the spring, we gotta push it up. 172 00:13:48,599 --> 00:13:52,025 Yeah. I I had two listings go live, you know, 173 00:13:52,503 --> 00:13:54,955 not space for the weekend before that. 174 00:13:55,252 --> 00:14:01,325 And got full price offers both of them within two days. Mh. 175 00:14:01,785 --> 00:14:05,198 You know, so as a seller, you know, pricing right, We're not... 176 00:14:05,397 --> 00:14:08,614 We're not having to move a whole pack of a lot if we don't want to. 177 00:14:08,834 --> 00:14:11,791 Yeah. Yep? If it's if it's priced correctly. 178 00:14:12,564 --> 00:14:15,498 And the same thing happened with the con with the Condo market 179 00:14:15,517 --> 00:14:18,930 is we took a nice jump we went from a hundred and forty up to 180 00:14:18,988 --> 00:14:24,156 a hundred and eighty one. Mh. And our inventory is tightening again. 181 00:14:27,153 --> 00:14:33,055 So we go our, you know, go to our our our numbers that we look at every week, 182 00:14:33,272 --> 00:14:36,818 which is, you know, the original list and final list to the final sales price. 183 00:14:37,870 --> 00:14:41,806 We're holding steady. We're, you know, we're seeing about that three percent. 184 00:14:42,145 --> 00:14:44,803 Yep. We've that we've seen fairly consistently. 185 00:14:45,861 --> 00:14:49,835 Our daytime market enough hasn't changed too much. 186 00:14:51,115 --> 00:14:53,715 So viruses are still taking a little bit of time. 187 00:14:54,410 --> 00:14:57,630 I think over for the next couple of weeks, we're gonna see that probably drop. 188 00:14:59,170 --> 00:15:03,499 I would be maybe maybe ten days or more. I think we could. Yeah. 189 00:15:03,619 --> 00:15:05,890 I think we're gonna see a lot of potential movement. 190 00:15:06,010 --> 00:15:10,210 I think, you know, I've noticed an uptick on my side of you 191 00:15:10,210 --> 00:15:13,200 don't do applicants bias to the marketplace right now. 192 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,433 So I think we could see that immediate kind of like, 193 00:15:15,991 --> 00:15:17,546 shift because inventory is low. 194 00:15:17,706 --> 00:15:22,743 Like, we're gonna see that pressure to move quicker coming yeah blank. 195 00:15:22,863 --> 00:15:26,569 And we had... We did the open house on the one town home here 196 00:15:26,569 --> 00:15:29,694 alta to my Springs and I think we had twenty or twenty five 197 00:15:29,694 --> 00:15:37,351 people through on a Saturday. That's a that's a great turnout on an open house. 198 00:15:38,005 --> 00:15:41,281 Mh. That tells me there's buyers out there, there's buyers looking. 199 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,797 Yeah. You know, are they gonna be able to find something now? 200 00:15:45,356 --> 00:15:51,590 Mh. And one of the nice thing is if we can continue to push rates down, 201 00:15:52,626 --> 00:15:55,634 people who we've got sitting we've got a couple of clients 202 00:15:55,634 --> 00:16:01,228 who are sitting on that margin where, you know, it's... Believe or not. 203 00:16:01,308 --> 00:16:03,985 It's it's like twenty thousand dollars gets them the house they want. 204 00:16:05,396 --> 00:16:09,903 But at the current rate, we can't make it work. Yeah. 205 00:16:10,581 --> 00:16:13,293 So we wanna continue to see some of these numbers trend in 206 00:16:13,293 --> 00:16:15,741 positive direction for us. Yep. Yep. 207 00:16:15,901 --> 00:16:19,832 Because I think it it it's it it will help kick up the market 208 00:16:19,930 --> 00:16:24,100 a little bit overall. Be good for sellers too because you're 209 00:16:24,100 --> 00:16:28,600 gonna bring in a pool of buyers that's been sitting on the sideline 210 00:16:29,060 --> 00:16:33,195 waiting for that that number to hit where they can they can 211 00:16:33,195 --> 00:16:41,170 buy the house that they really want. Mh? Yep. And then here's our... 212 00:16:41,290 --> 00:16:44,690 You know, here's our charts. And again, you see average days on market. 213 00:16:45,530 --> 00:16:48,330 You know, we've can sit pretty close to that sixty day mark. 214 00:16:49,385 --> 00:16:52,458 And then our inventory numbers really just, you know, 215 00:16:52,977 --> 00:16:56,529 just about thirty eight hundred kinda leveling out in the housing. 216 00:16:57,327 --> 00:17:00,340 Small declines. Yep. Well did. I think we're in that. 217 00:17:00,500 --> 00:17:03,100 You know, we're in this weird I know we've got a little bit 218 00:17:03,100 --> 00:17:06,831 of movement the markets and economy, but we're we're we've got what? 219 00:17:06,911 --> 00:17:10,739 I think seven weeks left to school. So you got... I think a lot of parents. 220 00:17:11,218 --> 00:17:13,890 Like, this this buy it's kinda like we're right that tier. Right? 221 00:17:14,009 --> 00:17:16,059 Or it's like, let's get through school. Yep. 222 00:17:16,218 --> 00:17:17,694 But then conversely, what do you do? 223 00:17:17,814 --> 00:17:20,725 If you're trying to list a home and you're trying to sell and 224 00:17:20,725 --> 00:17:25,751 you gotta buy I think there's a little bit of that play as well with... 225 00:17:26,370 --> 00:17:31,918 What am I gonna buy? Mh. Yep. Yep. You know, it's... 226 00:17:32,897 --> 00:17:36,013 Enough, I'm still seeing some saying builders doing some price 227 00:17:36,013 --> 00:17:41,636 reductions at homes And there either other ones that are are 228 00:17:41,734 --> 00:17:43,330 quote inventory quick moving homes. 229 00:17:43,489 --> 00:17:46,520 Those are homes that are either done already or will be done 230 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:48,609 within the next thirty to sixty days. Yep. 231 00:17:48,729 --> 00:17:51,025 Our builders usually called quick move ins. 232 00:17:51,483 --> 00:17:56,112 And you're still seeing Taylor morrison sent out an email today 233 00:17:56,112 --> 00:18:00,061 and they dropping about thirty thousand dollars per hour. Yeah. 234 00:18:01,559 --> 00:18:05,508 So one for k, you never stay I'm honest, 235 00:18:06,444 --> 00:18:09,954 where they had dropped forty thousand dollars on a house, quick house? 236 00:18:11,111 --> 00:18:16,565 Wow, which that's that's a lot of money. Yeah. That's that's a. 237 00:18:16,725 --> 00:18:19,445 It doesn't know good. Having it sit there empty. 238 00:18:20,300 --> 00:18:23,420 Yep not you gotta move the thing. Yep. Expect. 239 00:18:24,140 --> 00:18:27,915 And these buildings they have to. They have to go. The. 240 00:18:28,155 --> 00:18:33,675 Kind market, we're actually seeing less of a discount in the condos right now. 241 00:18:34,849 --> 00:18:38,716 That's it more at ninety eight percent. And they took a good... 242 00:18:38,996 --> 00:18:41,587 They came down just in about forty eight days. 243 00:18:42,225 --> 00:18:43,341 So they're sitting about the same. 244 00:18:43,995 --> 00:18:47,827 You know, days on market, but you can see their average on 245 00:18:47,827 --> 00:18:52,976 their weekly sales have jumped up. We're we're in the spring springtime market. 246 00:18:54,906 --> 00:18:56,183 So if you're... I mean, if it... 247 00:18:56,342 --> 00:19:00,571 It's difficult, I I understand difficulties for a lot of sellers kind of mh mh. 248 00:19:01,862 --> 00:19:05,952 Right now, you can... You're gonna maximize your price. Yeah. 249 00:19:06,210 --> 00:19:07,646 You are gonna maximize your price. 250 00:19:08,660 --> 00:19:12,016 We're gonna have to do a little work to find your place to move to. 251 00:19:14,054 --> 00:19:17,610 You know what? It's okay. You just need an amazing realtor like Brendan. 252 00:19:17,905 --> 00:19:22,725 And you're good. That's got it. Yeah. Yeah. We just gotta work the numbers. 253 00:19:22,945 --> 00:19:26,025 You know, we we've... We've been able to get creative. 254 00:19:26,559 --> 00:19:29,912 With some clients make it work out? Mh. 255 00:19:30,151 --> 00:19:36,175 Oh but overall, our Florida our Orlando market is solid. 256 00:19:37,595 --> 00:19:38,795 And as long as that, you know, it... 257 00:19:38,995 --> 00:19:42,755 Well, that inventory is low, you know, Florida unemployment is low? 258 00:19:43,475 --> 00:19:46,924 Yeah. Things, you know, it's it's gonna stay... 259 00:19:47,044 --> 00:19:50,357 I think we're gonna continue to see a strong, you know, 260 00:19:50,756 --> 00:19:53,191 strong steady market Mh overall. 261 00:19:54,244 --> 00:19:59,152 We're just gotta be able to replace some of the inventory. So... 262 00:19:59,352 --> 00:20:02,878 So I I wanted to share this one little thing with us, 263 00:20:02,998 --> 00:20:04,475 and I'm a little bit late on it. I... 264 00:20:04,594 --> 00:20:06,709 Because it kinda went more with what we started with. 265 00:20:07,148 --> 00:20:12,655 But did you hear about the Fha fa enhancing their payment deferral program? 266 00:20:13,475 --> 00:20:17,995 No. So it's voluntary for service providers to implement this, 267 00:20:18,115 --> 00:20:22,597 but it's a change. So remember what Fannie Mae freddie Mac that under the F fa, 268 00:20:22,757 --> 00:20:27,381 so the federal housing frame. Like what they did during Covid was the what. 269 00:20:27,715 --> 00:20:31,223 The six month deferral. The deferral. Yeah. Like, payment deferral. 270 00:20:31,382 --> 00:20:34,771 Right? Yep. And I always find this interesting. Right? 271 00:20:35,050 --> 00:20:38,894 Because we're talking about unemployment numbers get revised up. 272 00:20:39,013 --> 00:20:40,210 We see these different things. 273 00:20:40,489 --> 00:20:45,395 All this data right, but they kinda snap this one on And and I love this, 274 00:20:45,655 --> 00:20:51,715 the director. I have this quote ready from San Sandra Thompson, 275 00:20:52,269 --> 00:20:54,105 which is one of the director is the director. 276 00:20:54,225 --> 00:20:56,740 The enterprise complete more than one million Covid nineteen 277 00:20:56,740 --> 00:20:58,137 payment deferral during the pandemic, 278 00:20:58,296 --> 00:21:00,771 helping barr nationwide stay in their homes. 279 00:21:01,504 --> 00:21:04,896 She continued by saying, based on the success of the Covid 280 00:21:04,896 --> 00:21:08,687 nineteen payment our program, we are making this solution a key 281 00:21:08,687 --> 00:21:12,580 part of our standard loss mitigation tool that is available 282 00:21:12,580 --> 00:21:22,060 to all barns with eligible hardships. So... When did they take that one out? 283 00:21:22,220 --> 00:21:27,107 Or this was last week? And it I I I I... Like... 284 00:21:27,267 --> 00:21:30,064 But you like how that kinda just needs and there like, hey, 285 00:21:30,183 --> 00:21:32,701 this was so successful. We're just gonna keep it here. 286 00:21:33,155 --> 00:21:36,755 And why do you think they wanna keep a program around? 287 00:21:37,475 --> 00:21:38,675 Because the unemployment gonna go up. 288 00:21:39,515 --> 00:21:43,449 Because they see the numbers trending and gosh. 289 00:21:43,688 --> 00:21:45,925 As the government, like, as an entity, 290 00:21:46,085 --> 00:21:48,562 they're gonna have more access to numbers than we are. Right? 291 00:21:48,682 --> 00:21:50,174 Like, a lot of times. So they're kinda of... 292 00:21:50,293 --> 00:21:53,525 Like, I think personally, they see a little bit. They're getting... 293 00:21:53,684 --> 00:21:54,762 They're getting in front of it. 294 00:21:54,921 --> 00:21:59,840 But this wasn't a big news site, like, Nobody really heard about this change. 295 00:22:00,477 --> 00:22:05,114 And it's a voluntary change to go into back July first for 296 00:22:05,114 --> 00:22:08,582 servicer before they make it mandatory. Right? 297 00:22:08,861 --> 00:22:12,887 But it's it's been approved and it's now gonna be a part of 298 00:22:12,887 --> 00:22:15,918 the standard process for Fannie mae and freddie any mac back loans, 299 00:22:16,297 --> 00:22:18,975 which means that they they think like, 300 00:22:19,454 --> 00:22:22,611 why would they make something standard if they didn't expect to need it? 301 00:22:23,145 --> 00:22:27,691 Right? Correct. They wouldn't. Like, wait... 302 00:22:27,850 --> 00:22:31,320 But you wanna make sure that the housing market is impact too greatly, 303 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:36,184 so you do what. You you make previously okay. You why doing this. 304 00:22:36,442 --> 00:22:39,196 So I think it's kind of an interesting piece. We're gonna see some... 305 00:22:39,356 --> 00:22:41,591 I think we are gonna see some shake ups coming. 306 00:22:42,124 --> 00:22:45,192 But you see the government kinda operating and step, you know, 307 00:22:45,272 --> 00:22:51,008 in Unison in different areas to make sure that they're they're 308 00:22:51,187 --> 00:22:56,455 controlling the impact as best as they can. We're gonna see him fall up. 309 00:22:56,575 --> 00:22:58,491 But what does that fall? Look like? I don't know. 310 00:22:59,144 --> 00:23:04,528 How people aren't gonna have equity in their homes? And we they will. 311 00:23:04,727 --> 00:23:06,921 Right? But they're still gonna help with this program because 312 00:23:06,921 --> 00:23:11,045 they know it's gonna be worse because what happens if somebody has the equity. 313 00:23:11,205 --> 00:23:17,031 Right? But they can't afford to make the payment and they can't find a home. 314 00:23:17,605 --> 00:23:20,439 Right? You you can't find you can't go buy home. You don't wanna rent. 315 00:23:20,559 --> 00:23:24,151 You're not gonna sell. Right? You're gonna ride out no payments 316 00:23:24,151 --> 00:23:29,220 because you still get equity and in two years sell and still 317 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,780 turn a profit it because of the equity you've gained into your property. 318 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,755 Well, that's not gonna be good for the servicer. No. 319 00:23:37,215 --> 00:23:40,535 So I I think this is a solution because they see that there 320 00:23:40,535 --> 00:23:45,950 could potentially be a longer term path that then you're gonna 321 00:23:45,950 --> 00:23:49,386 see some borrowers start to take advantage of as they fall on hard times. 322 00:23:49,586 --> 00:23:51,743 So what are they... Are they gonna turn everyone into forty 323 00:23:51,743 --> 00:23:55,433 year mortgages like they did? I don't know. 324 00:23:55,632 --> 00:23:58,104 Like, I mean, that's we got more into that one. 325 00:23:58,343 --> 00:24:04,418 That the full year mortgage program for Fha is there for approved default, 326 00:24:04,857 --> 00:24:07,372 mitigation, loss mitigation yeah. 327 00:24:07,652 --> 00:24:10,486 Hasn't been approved on the standard front side, like, 328 00:24:10,605 --> 00:24:12,402 I can't tell someone tomorrow to be like, hey, 329 00:24:12,521 --> 00:24:16,285 let's do a for the year and let's close on a buy right now, 330 00:24:16,564 --> 00:24:19,554 but it's there for lost mitigation and it's been fully approved 331 00:24:19,554 --> 00:24:24,557 on the government on the government shirt which the F fa Fannie, 332 00:24:24,797 --> 00:24:29,772 Freddie not quite government and strict butt manager. But... 333 00:24:30,031 --> 00:24:32,361 Yeah. Just interesting little tidbit I thought, like, 334 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,573 just to make you think a little more branded before we wrap up today. 335 00:24:37,031 --> 00:24:39,506 Wow. Okay. That would caught me totally after there. 336 00:24:40,478 --> 00:24:42,334 We'll talk more about that one off camera. 337 00:24:43,429 --> 00:24:45,503 Because that one's that one's interesting. 338 00:24:46,779 --> 00:24:52,465 So our so we revise unemployment numbers of we slip in a a defer 339 00:24:52,465 --> 00:24:59,619 program without anyone doing. Right. Okay. Okay. 340 00:25:01,196 --> 00:25:04,312 Love, I think we're gonna leave everybody with that little 341 00:25:04,312 --> 00:25:08,002 cliff hanger and we'll here it have to tune in next week as 342 00:25:08,002 --> 00:25:11,038 we dive into this a little bit more. Yes. Definitely. 343 00:25:11,637 --> 00:25:15,628 Thank you everyone for joining us. Take care. Have a wonderful day. 344 00:25:16,965 --> 00:25:20,907 It now. Bye. 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