By Brenden Rendo, Realtor · Updated June 18, 2026

This week on the Orlando Real Estate Buzz, the headlines pointed in two directions at once: the Federal Reserve held rates steady under its new chair, mortgage rates stayed flat, and homebuilders kept tapping the brakes — yet here in Central Florida, pending home sales just jumped 8.70% over last year. Below is the full breakdown of what moved, what it means, and the window sellers have right now.

+8.70%
Orlando Pending Sales (YoY)
June 2026 vs. June 2025 — buyers are coming back
+14.50%
Pending Inventory
Nearly 4,000 Orlando homes currently under contract
4.2 mo.
Months of Inventory
Down from ~4.5–5 months — a balanced market
−24%
Lennar Avg. Sale Price
~$370,000 with incentives, down from ~$500,000 in 2022
TLDR:
  • The Fed held rates steady in its first meeting under Chair Warsh; 9 of 19 members projected a possible hike later in 2026.
  • Mortgage rates are flat — the 10-year Treasury sits near 4.43% and heavy federal borrowing keeps yields from falling.
  • U.S. housing starts dropped to 1.177 million (lowest since 2020) as builders slow construction to protect margins.
  • Orlando pending sales rose 8.70% and pending inventory rose 14.50%, while active inventory fell — months of supply is down to 4.2.
  • Sellers have a real window through early-to-mid August if homes are priced right and move-in ready.

The Fed held — and Warsh is playing it close

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh — in line with expectations given recent inflation and jobs data. The bigger story was tone: 9 of the 19 members signaled at least one rate increase could still come this year.

"Warsh is definitely a little tighter to the vest," Brenden noted. Where the prior chair forecast nearly every move, the new Fed plans to keep its cards closer to its chest — which likely means more month-to-month volatility in rate expectations. The CME FedWatch read going into July: roughly 70% expect a hold, about 30% a hike, with the odds of an increase rising to about 50% by September.

Quick Tip: With less forward guidance from the Fed, don't try to time the bottom on rates. If you're pre-approved at today's numbers, plan around them — you can always refinance later.

Why mortgage rates aren't falling yet

The 10-year Treasury yield has eased off its ~4.50% peak to about 4.43%, but that's not enough to move mortgage rates meaningfully. The reason is supply: the Treasury has been issuing enormous amounts of new debt — north of $600 billion in recent single weeks. As long as that pace continues, yields stay elevated, and mortgage rates, which track the 10-year, stay put.

One bright spot for Central Florida wallets: gas prices have fallen about 30 cents in the past week, dipping into the $3.60s. If the broader inflation picture cools, that's the kind of trend that eventually helps rates — but Brenden sees no clear catalyst to push the 10-year back to the 4.2–4.30% range just yet.

Builders are pulling back inventory

Nationally, U.S. Census new residential construction data showed housing starts dropping to 1.177 million in May 2026 — the lowest total since 2020. Because starts translate to inventory six to nine months out, builders are effectively holding back their spring 2027 supply.

Why? Margins. Lennar's average sale price, including incentives, has fallen about 24% — to roughly $370,000, down from near $500,000 in 2022. In Orlando, builders are still buying rates down to the 4.5–4.99% range (and lower on some ARMs), which can cost $30,000–$50,000 per home and keeps headline prices propped up. Slowing starts is how they stop the bleeding on incentives.

★ Pro Move: Builder rate buydowns are real money — sometimes 20–25% of the home's value in total incentives. If you're shopping new construction, ask exactly what the buydown costs and compare it against a resale home priced lower up front.

Orlando pending sales jumped 8.70%

Here's the local good news. Pending sales — the forward-looking signal, not the rear-view "sold" number — are up 8.70% year over year, with pending inventory up 14.50% and nearly 4,000 homes currently under contract across the metro. At the same time, active inventory has fallen, pulling months of supply down to 4.2 from the 4.5–5 months we saw earlier this spring.

"Two months ago I said we were a complete buyer's market. Now you're more of a stable market," Brenden explained. Real example: a client relocating from Louisiana was watching two homes that had sat 47 and 50 days — both went pending within two weeks. Buyers who paused are deciding that with rates steady, they finally know where they stand. For the broader picture, see our Central Florida housing market hub. (National pending-sales context is tracked by the National Association of Realtors.)

What buyers and sellers should do now

For buyers: there are still motivated sellers and real choice, but the easy concessions are thinning as inventory tightens. Move quickly on well-priced homes — the good ones are going pending again.

For sellers: you have a genuine window through early-to-mid August before the market typically slows into September. Price correctly out of the gate, get the home clean and move-in ready, and you may not need the concessions sellers were handing out a couple months ago. Curious where your home stands? Start with our home value estimator.

Florida overall has now posted nine straight months of rising sales — this isn't a crash, it's a transition back toward realistic pricing across Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia counties.

Thinking of buying or selling in Central Florida this summer? The window is open — let's make a plan. Call or text Brenden Rendo at 407-616-9019, and catch the Orlando Real Estate Buzz every Thursday at 11 a.m.