Orlando Housing Market: Trump's "High Value" Paradox & The Florida Migration Slowdown

February 5, 2026

Key Takeaways from This Episode

  • Trump's Housing Goal: President Trump wants to lower interest rates to help buyers, but explicitly stated he wants to keep home values high for existing owners. Can you actually have both?
  • New Fed Nominee Kevin Warsh: A look at the potential new Fed Chair who is anti-QE and historically "hawkish"—a potential conflict with the administration's desire for cheap money.
  • Florida Migration Plunge: New data shows Florida's net migration dropped from ~500k during the pandemic to just 23k last year. Is the "Florida Boom" over?
  • Orlando Stats Bounce: After dipping last week, the median home price jumped back over $400k, while Condo inventory hit a concerning 10-month supply.

Good morning! We have a packed show today. From the White House Cabinet meeting to the latest migration numbers that might shock you, there is a lot of noise in the market right now. And, of course, with the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, we even have a little prediction on where Redfin is giving away their million-dollar house.

I’m Brenden Rendo with The Homes in Orlando Team, joined by Joseph Dionne of Appli Home Loans. Let's get into the headlines impacting your home value.

Trump's Housing Paradox: High Values AND Low Rates?

President Trump made some fascinating comments on housing this week. He stated that his goal is to lower interest rates to make buying easier, but he also explicitly said he does not want home values to come down because millions of Americans have become wealthy through their home equity.

Here is the quote: "I don't want those values to come down... The best thing that can happen for both groups of people is lower interest rates."

The problem? History tells us that when you artificially lower interest rates while inventory is low, prices don't just stay stable—they skyrocket. We saw this in 2020 and 2021. If we pour cheap money onto a fire, we risk making affordability even worse for the entry-level buyer, creating a permanently higher floor for prices.

The New Fed Nominee: Kevin Warsh

To execute this plan, there is talk of nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. Warsh is brilliant—he was the youngest Fed Governor in history at age 35. However, his track record is "hawkish." He resigned in 2011 because he disagreed with Quantitative Easing (printing money).

This sets up a potential conflict. You have a President who wants lower rates (which usually requires easy money policies) and a potential Fed Chair who hates easy money policies and wants to shrink the balance sheet. It will be very interesting to see how this dynamic plays out for mortgage rates in 2026.

"Florida homeowners lost a median of about $10,000 in home value last year. It's the market finding a balance."

Is the Florida Migration Boom Over?

We used to say, "Everyone is moving to Florida." The data is starting to say otherwise. During the pandemic peak, Florida gained nearly 500,000 people. Last year? The net increase in migration was only 23,000 people.

Bank of America data even suggests Orlando’s population ticked down slightly. Why? Affordability. The "Florida Discount" is gone. Between insurance costs, property taxes, and home prices, people from New York are starting to look at Tennessee and Texas instead. When you remove 470,000 potential buyers from the pipeline, the market is naturally going to feel softer.

Orlando Market Stats: The $400k Bounce

Let’s look at what happened in Orlando this week:

  • Sales Volume: 357 sales (up from last week).
  • Median Price: After dipping below $400k last week, single-family home prices bounced back up over $400,000.
  • Inventory: Creeping up slightly (+5.5% for the year). This is good for buyers who need options.
  • Condos: This is the trouble spot. Inventory is at 10 months. The median condo price dropped 9.3% to $244,900.

The "Clean House" Rule: I cannot stress this enough—sellers must present a clean house. I showed a home in Winter Park listed at $475k. It was priced right, clean, and in a good location. Result? Multiple offers immediately. If you overprice or leave deferred maintenance, you will sit on the market. If you price it right, the buyers are there.

Redfin Super Bowl Prediction: Redfin is giving away a house during the Super Bowl. Based on the price point and clues, I ran an AI analysis. My prediction? The house is in Pittsburgh. Keep an eye out for the commercial!

If you want to check the value of your home in this shifting market, you can do that here: Home Valuation.

Enjoy the Super Bowl, and we will see you next Thursday for more updates!