By Brenden Rendo, Realtor · Updated July 22, 2026
The headlines this week tell two different stories. Florida just logged its 10th straight month of year-over-year sales growth, yet national pending home sales hit their lowest June on record. Here in Central Florida, the truth sits in between: homes are selling, but the leverage keeps tilting toward buyers. Below is what the national and state data says, plus the live numbers I pulled from Stellar MLS this week for Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia counties.
- Florida closed sales rose year over year for a 10th straight month in June: single-family up 9.3%, condo-townhouse up 14%. Part of the streak reflects a weak June 2025 comparison.
- Nationally, pending home sales fell 5.4% in June to the lowest June on record, and mortgage rates ticked up to 6.55%.
- Orlando is carrying roughly 41% more inventory than its pre-pandemic norm, one of the largest surpluses of any major Florida metro.
- Orlando mid-tier condo prices are down about 17% from their January 2024 peak, back to fall 2006 levels. City-wide single-family prices are down a milder 5% from peak.
- In our 4 counties this week: 13,456 active listings, 896 new listings, 1,331 price cuts, and more than half of all active listings already below original list price.
Florida's sales streak reaches 10 months
Florida Realtors reported that June extended the statewide year-over-year growth streak to 10 consecutive months. The June numbers: 26,036 single-family closed sales, up 9.3% from a year earlier, and 8,900 condo-townhouse sales, up 14%. The statewide single-family median rose 4.9% to $432,000, while the condo-townhouse median edged up 1.7% to $305,000.
Two caveats keep me from calling this a boom. First, Florida Realtors' own researchers note that June 2025 was an unusually weak month, which inflates the percentage gains. Second, supply is still ample: 4.5 months for single-family homes and 8.1 months for condo-townhouse product. Anything above roughly 6 months has historically favored buyers, which puts the condo segment squarely in buyer's-market territory.
On the construction side, HBW permit data covered by Florida Realtors shows the Orlando region logged 1,347 new residential permits in June, about $500 million in planned construction. New supply is still coming.
The national picture: demand still frozen
Zoom out and the mood changes fast. National Association of Realtors pending home sales fell 5.4% in June from May, the lowest level for any June in the data's history. The South posted its lowest June on record. This is the fourth straight year of deep-freeze demand nationally, and it is happening alongside the highest supply of existing single-family homes in 10 years.
Rates are not helping: the Freddie Mac weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.55% in the latest reading, up from about 6.48% in June. Buyers waiting for a dramatic rate drop have been waiting since September 2022; the market that exists is the one priced around six and a half percent.
Orlando: more inventory, softer prices, and a tax vote ahead
The July ICE Mortgage Monitor, summarized by Florida Realtors, found Orlando carrying about 41% more inventory than its normal pre-pandemic May level, one of the two largest surpluses among major Florida metros (Lakeland was higher at 69%). ICE's broader finding is simple: metros with extra inventory are seeing weaker price growth. That is us.
You can see it in the price data. Zillow Home Value Index figures compiled by Wolf Street show Orlando mid-tier condo prices down about 17% from their January 2024 peak and down 8.3% year over year, back to where they first sat in fall 2006. City-wide prices across all home types are down a milder 5% from the June 2024 peak. Condos are carrying the weight of rising HOA fees, insurance costs, and financing hurdles; single-family homes are correcting gently, not crashing.
The Orlando Business Journal reported this week that metro sales are climbing while the median sits around $416,308, and flagged November's proposed property tax amendment as the wildcard that could reshape carrying costs for Florida homeowners. I will break that amendment down in a separate post before the vote.
Our live 4-county numbers this week
Every week I pull fresh data for our service area from Stellar MLS. Here is the snapshot as of July 22, 2026:
| County | Active Listings | New This Week | Price Cuts This Week | Median List Price | Median Days on Market | % Below Original Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange | 5,720 | 380 | 556 | $445,000 | 43 | 51.4% |
| Seminole | 1,589 | 117 | 203 | $399,900 | 38 | 56.5% |
| Lake | 3,079 | 206 | 287 | $393,900 | 47 | 52.4% |
| Volusia | 3,068 | 193 | 285 | $375,000 | 50 | 55.5% |
A few things stand out. Price cuts outnumbered new listings in every county this week: 1,331 cuts against 896 fresh listings, with the median cut running about 2.2%. More than half of every county's active inventory is already priced below its original list. And roughly 4 in 10 active listings have been sitting for 60 days or more, which is where real negotiating leverage lives. Volusia is the slowest of the four at a 50-day median and 55.5% of listings below original price.
If you want to hunt those reduced listings directly, the live feeds are here: Orange County price reductions, Seminole County price reductions, Lake County price reductions, and Volusia County price reductions.
What this means for buyers and sellers
Buyers: this is the most leverage you have had in years. Inventory is 41% above normal, half the market has already cut price once, and sellers of 60-plus-day listings are motivated. Do not wait for 5% mortgage rates that may not come; negotiate price, credits, and repairs instead. The math on a well-negotiated purchase at 6.5% often beats renting while you wait.
Sellers: homes are absolutely still selling, 896 of your neighbors listed just this week and Florida closed sales are up 10 months running. But the sellers winning right now price correctly on day one. The data shows what happens otherwise: a 2% cut, then another, then a 60-day-stale listing that buyers circle like sharks. If you are weighing a sale, start with an honest number from our home value estimator and a real conversation about your competition.
For the full data picture, including monthly trends and buyer and seller guides, visit the Central Florida housing market hub.
Want a read on your specific neighborhood, or a shortlist of the most negotiable homes in Orange, Seminole, Lake, or Volusia County? Call or text Brenden Rendo at 407-616-9019, or start at homesinorlando.forsale.
