Top Central Florida Home Builder Is Optimistic

 

 

Top Central Florida Home Builder Is Optimistic

 

As the U.S. housing market continues to be sluggish, homebuilder PulteGroup Inc. remains one of the most active entities in Central Florida According to the company's data report on Jan. 31, there were 41% fewer orders for their homes during the last three months of 2022 from the same period in 2021.   However, CEO Ryan Marshall noted that sales increased month-over-month from October through December and have continued into January. Additionally, PulteGroup’s revenue from home sales skyrocketed 20%, with average sale price surging 17%, while mortgage applications remain largely unaffected by the high interest rates. Notably, Marshall mentioned that in October they had taken steps to walk away from land deals and slow production due to shrinkage in demand.  if consumer buying power continues to recover, the entire homebuilding industry could benefit as inventory of existing homes across metro Orlando is just 2.85 months

Orlando Weekly Housing Market Report

Inflation Show No Signs Of Slowing Down

 

 

 

Transcript of Show

Good morning, and welcome to

the Orlando Real Estate Buzz.

Brenden Rendo with the Homes In Orlando Team

and joined as always by our good friend.

Joseph Dionne, hey Nick. He's sneaking

away of Appli home loans.

He's like, I don't wanna hear today's

conversation. No, he probably does not.

This is kinda actually

good because last week,

we originally talked about

talking about the roller coaster

rates and you know You like, I I

I always laugh, like, you know,

and we're here in Orlando. The old

school roller coasters where it's like,

that tug chug chug is

so goes up to the top.

And then you have, like,

the whole roller coaster where

just shoot two right at the top,

like, from the bottom all the way up.

Which one do you feel like we're always

on right now? Like, any are going up?

This week, we're on the hulk. We

are oh, literally on the hulk.

I mean, we just... You you sent me

the economic news calendar for the week.

You know? And I'm sitting there looking

at going. Shit. It's gonna it's gonna...

It's it's gonna drive us it's

either gonna push us down

real quick or it's gonna shoot us

back up real quick. And what happened?

Shut back up real quick. I mean, when

we we sit and look at the headlines,

it was just, you know, Tuesday.

Consumer price index comes out.

Yep. And we're still sitting

at six point four percent,

which is way off the Fed's target

of two. Didn't Little that.

Just a little bit

just a little bit.

You know And when

you looked at it,

the inside numbers everything actually

went up. Mh. But the rate came down.

It's like, how does that one work?

You? I mean, we're we're off our peak.

Our pete was where where did we

peak at? Like, eight two eight four?

Yeah. It was like, eight... I

think it was eight four. Okay.

Yeah. So we're off, which is great,

but we're not seeing a steady decline.

No. Not at all.

And, you know,

we had we had a lot of people talking

happy news like a week week and a half ago.

Yeah. Offense pay fence

pivoting, boom boom boom.

This is what The chicago head

of the Cleveland Fed said,

she's pushing over for another half

a point re hike. Yeah. So balance don't...

I don't think their pivot means

what they think Pivot means.

Just when we saw that quarter. You

know what it almost feels like.

It almost feels like they knew

these numbers were gonna be

as good as what they needed

to be so they gave us a little

reprieve on the last hike.

Yeah. Exactly. Exactly.

And then this morning, we got the Ppi

numbers. The producers price index.

It was... They had estimated

it coming in at point four.

I wanna be an expert by the way. When I

grew up next life, I'm gonna be an expert.

Just so I can be wrong and still get

paid. And it came in at point seven.

You know, They're they're only off by point

three. Come on. That was pretty close.

Yes. I mean, what what... What a great

job either a meteor or an economist.

Which one? Which point?

Which one because I...

You know, you you can you can be

totally wrong, either direction...

You know and you still give you

still make money. It's just...

It's it's not fair.

Yeah. But, I mean,

and the market this morning just

futures just took a dive. Yeah.

We can absolute dive. And then

the ten year t this morning, ouch,

it took a huge jump. We're up to

three point. Where are we right now?

Three point eight three. So this is just

since Monday the the thirteenth on Monday.

You know, we're sitting down

here at roughly three point

seven and we've jumped to

three point eight six. You.

So in the past, one in the past

two weeks, we've seen what,

almost a half a point jump pretty close,

pretty close. Somewhere in there.

Mh. So you're your baseline

line's is probably what?

About six point seven five

somewhere in that ballpark? Yeah.

I mean, it's it's it's at that

point where you're top tier now,

like top tier client, like,

we're talking like that super

sexy scenario where it's by

four hundred thousand dollar

home putting thirty percent down,

eight hundred credits score...

That that's your six point seven

five. Extra six point seven five.

And then like,

everybody else.

If you're not that scenario, you're

gonna be higher than that right now.

Guarantee just gonna

get hit. Good. Yeah.

I mean I mean, and you may

find and then here's thing,

there's gonna be investors that

are gonna be hurting right now.

That are. There's a lot already

hurting. And they're gonna...

And they're gonna... You're

gonna see rates kind of like,

you're gonna see people take

you're gonna see a little bit

more aggressive rates here

and there. But it's...

Those are companies that

you, we're still seeing.

We're seeing mortgage companies,

I think capital mortgage,

which is a fairly medium sized,

mortgage company, nationally,

just close their door like,

you're seeing a lot of stuff

like you we're still

getting these type news.

Data because a lot of these companies, there's

so much overhead and to be competitive,

they've been trying to get

rates because they're just

trying to under undercut So

they keep revenue coming in,

but they're not

generating it enough.

Like their market is

marketing here and saying,

the market does something

like this. Sake of crap.

I can't we can't do it

any any longer. Yep.

I I think you're gonna continue to

see that type of data news coming out.

Where... You know, a lot

of the big players are out.

You know, I saw

I was laughing.

You saw Jay Foreigner

with Rocket you know,

he he announced his retirement

plan or his he's gonna I was

like would pick a good

time to decide to.

You know, he's he he he's

like I've been through this

roller coaster a few few times already.

I'm ready. I'm ready to retire.

That is enough for me. But. Yeah. It's

just... It's it's gonna be interesting.

And it's continuing to

keep us on our toes.

Every time we think it's gonna

settle back down, it doesn't.

Yep. And I think we're gonna see

that in the numbers too because,

you know, we had talked

beginning of January when we we

pushed down into that six

percent area. We've we felt it.

We felt a sigh relief from from

the buyers You know, I saw in,

you know, an influx of some some

buyers come come back all of a sudden.

I think you know, we saw we saw and we'll

see it. I, again, we'll see in the numbers.

We saw houses moving a little

bit quicker again. Yep.

You know, people at

open houses again.

Our people now, all of

a sudden gonna say, no.

Gonna pull back again and wait, wait

for rates to come back down again.

You know, it's

it's amazing...

I mean, that that half percent

when you're looking at a, you know,

a family with these days, you know, median

income of a hundred thousand dollars.

It stretches them.

You know, a couple...

You know, like couple extra

hundred dollars in payment.

All of a sudden again, prices

them back out of that house. Yep.

You know, how many how many times have

we worked with people are you know,

they're sitting

there, You know,

you're you're running them

through and you're sitting at

that forty nine point five

percent debt to income ratio and

your plan that nothing

changes before that closing.

You know that that they don't go

out and actually spend a couple

extra hundred dollars on their credit card.

So their payment goes up thirty hour.

And it literally just... When

you do that final credit pull,

also sudden Oh, what

we're too high? Yeah.

Like exactly or that that

insurance quote changes last get

the agent quoted extra premiums

to try to win the deal and then,

you know, we get the four point

and no longer. Is it valid.

You know, we we've seen

those the time or too.

I I left, like, we've

got kind of like, a...

We we're getting hit in so

many different directions.

With, like, insurance

cost going up exorbitant.

We've got the information we've got

we've got, you know, rates are...

Like, you have all

these different things.

Market costs, like, you know,

values are so much higher

than where they were three years ago.

We we've we're we're used to that now.

But Florida just been such

an interesting environment.

Like, we still have so many

people moving to Florida that

even with all this

stuff going on,

we haven't seen the massive impact

that I would expect to have seen.

Yeah? Yeah. We

keep calling...

You keep going back to those national

numbers and you you get the news,

you know, coming out

every week, you know,

with with January numbers here

for San Francisco for you know,

San diego Fried h, Os, my gosh, Austin, Texas,

which was one of The top three markets.

Yeah. Got got a gentleman. I know over

there. And the... It's just crashing.

Yeah. I mean, they are... They

are down twenty twenty five

percent somewhere

in that ballpark.

It is you wanna talk about doing

a one eighty and, you know,

hitting the top of that roller coaster

and you're you're just slamming,

you know, slamming down picking up speed.

And you know, I we I feel very fortunate.

You know, that we are in a little bit more

stable market. Doesn't make you on easy?

Yeah. Because like, everyone kinda like,

that s, you know? But it is what it is.

You know, you you you

learn to ride with it.

And just try to stay on top of

the numbers so you can let people know,

Hey, this is what's

happening. Yeah know.

And if I think you look at some

of the other economic numbers,

you know, the manufacturing

number has taken a dive.

So what the Fed is doing is working, it's

just not showing up in the numbers yet.

Yeah. And that's that's the part that's

kinda nerve wracking because it's like,

can they, which they've

never been able to before,

can they provide a soft

landing for the economy.

That you know, can they can they

time it like and they hit it?

Okay. We're... You know, yeah, We

are gonna do another half a point.

But a lot of that stuff doesn't

hit for six months down the road.

Mh. You know, is that September

or October is that and we

see the the unemployment numbers

really take a spike. Yeah. On to see.

Yeah. We'll have to

we'll have to see.

You know, but when we when we

jump back into the numbers here,

in Orlando, you know,

we talked about...

Let's see if that four hundred and seven

number holds up or if we do pull back.

Well, yeah, we did...

We did pull back,

but we pulled back to three

hundred where the previous

couple weeks were sitting

in the low twos. Mh.

So we've seen

the number jump,

which is kinda what I expected

simply because we did have

that low that pullback in

the rates that that's six percent.

And then again, our

inventory keeps decreasing.

And as long as that inventory keeps

decreasing, the prices are gonna hold.

Mh. Now, same thing

with with the condos.

The kind the number of condo

and town home sales pulled back,

but didn't pull back to the previous

levels. It was it was a little bit better.

And our inventory

decreased again.

So that tight inventory is is

helping the whole things up.

And then this was interesting because over

the past couple reports that we've done,

we saw that original list to sales price.

We saw it down as low as ninety percent.

Mh. And we saw this down, I

think as low as ninety two

percent the final this

the sales price. Yeah.

So with more buyers than that early

January coming back onto the market,

the sellers didn't have to give

as much away. As previously had.

They didn't have to discount as much.

And that's why we saw the days on market.

Shrink. So we see here our median

price where we had state study.

Yeah pick we picked

up a little bit.

Which makes sense with the more

buyers on the market. Yeah.

The less discount

than we have. Yeah.

And and here's our chart on the week

on the weekly sales numbers.

Again, we did we're knocked down

here. We're back up here. Yeah.

And I think over the next probably two to

three weeks through the end of February.

We'll see January pending come to

closing. I think we're gonna hold.

We're gonna hold higher at this

number than we had previously.

But now the rates

chuck them back up,

does it make it a softer march

going into the spring. Exactly.

That's what's gonna be

interesting Is we now have that...

And and I'm thinking back to last year.

March was a very weird year last year.

Right? Like,

because we had...

We almost had, like, this

exact thing that we just saw

today and with all this data, was

starting for the first time last year,

but we saw much bigger

jumps. Right? Mh.

It was march april last year where

it's like, holy crap rates weird.

Right? And are we gonna see something

similar this here? I don't know.

I don't think we will because

we're already a little bit higher.

But, you know,

it's... You know,

I think I think it's gonna

be interesting to see how all

this plays out over

the next couple.

I think we will see

a little bit, You know,

those headwind of you've got buying

season really coming upon us,

which that springtime in Florida. And then

you've got the headwind of higher rates.

So what's gonna happen?

Yeah. You got you know,

you got two forces coming like

this. Opposite forces is coming.

Yep. You know how are they

gonna bang together and which

one's gonna push the other one

you know, and when the tug war.

Mh. Really is kind

of what it's like.

And then you see our our days on market,

you know, we dropped was at eight,

six days on average, which again

more buyers not on the market.

Lower inventory,

this should decrease.

And I'm expecting this probably decrease

again over the next couple weeks.

Mh. But then, we're gonna start I

think we're gonna start going back up.

And this is one of the things that

every seller needs to be aware of.

And needs to keep an eye on this trend. Is

this continual decrease in the inventory.

Yep. This is gonna help keep your price

up. This will help keep your product up.

Yep. Because a lot of those houses, you

know, just either either overpriced or...

You know, if you're gonna have

to go at to six point seven five,

you're gonna make sure you're getting

every penny. And everything you want.

So you're not just gonna go in and

throw offers out there. Exactly.

Like, it like had previously

been done. Try. Yep.

Then we kinda see the same

thing here with the condos.

Again, ninety seven. Mh. We're

about two points higher than

we have been over the past

two weeks. That's really...

It's kinda interesting

because it's...

We really have two colliding

market dynamics going on right now.

Yeah. And it's anyone's

guess on where it goes.

You know, if if we

come out next month,

and we find our Cpi number

dropping into the fives?

We'll see, you you know,

we're we'll see...

I think we'll see the the rates

come back down. Yep.

But as I think as

long as we hold...

I mean, we hold study that's

six percent that's way above

where the fed wants to be.

Yep. Then they're gonna con...

They're gonna continue to push push

the... Push the overnight right up.

Which, of course, you know, is gonna

is gonna push the t bill up at well.

So so Well after

to see dynamic.

One one that we

could we, you know,

have to keep our eye on and

be prepared for when when we

get that when one of them wins.

Exactly. So we'll see. We'll see.

Keep an eye on it for you, and we'll

keep you updated on a weekly basis.

Thanks for joining us. Thanks again

this morning, Joe. Please enjoyed it.

Take care. If you're on Facebook,

please like if you're on Youtube,

please hit the subscribe

button, give us a thumbs up.

Look forward to seeing you

guys all again next Thursday.

Have a great day,

man. I can now.

Just Sold | 1468 Shadwell Circle, Lake Mary, FL

 

 

1468 Shadwell Circle, Lake Mary, FL 32746

 

This 5 bedroom, 4 bathroom Heathrow property provides the ultimate combination of luxury and leisure. From the Tesla Power Roof System to the massive pool, the backyard lanai, and the back putting green, you have plenty of options for entertainment for both your family and friends. Inside, the granite countertops, custom cabinets, built-in entertainment center, and dry bar create a stunning kitchen for gourmet cooking or entertaining. Upstairs is an interior haven with a sizable bonus room for movie-watching. With all this and more, it's easy to see why this property sold for $1,050,000.

 

 

View All Homes For Sale In Heathrow

 

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Email us with questions and your contact information

 

Bond Market Spikes And Drives Mortgage Rates Up

 

 

Bond Market Spikes And Drives Mortgage Rates Up

 

The bond market made a miscalculation last Wednesday when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed the inflation outlook in the United States. Market participants initially misread Powell's subdued posture and tone as a sign of an imminent policy pivot, but the positive jobs report on Friday highlighted the lack of easing measures this year. Recent data has reemphasized what Powell had said all along - that an overabundance of labor supply is continuing to feed into core services inflation ex-housing. As investors now realize the Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rates, long-term yields are dropping. Don't get caught off guard; stay up to date with the latest economic updates to make sure you're making informed decisions.

MOrtgage Rates Back Under 6%

 

 

Mortgage Rates Back Under 6%

 

Mortgage Rates Back Under 6% For First Time in Months, But Just Barely Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell. In the case of the ECB announcement, it was logically the European bond market that felt more upbeat. Given that US rates already experienced a fairly large move yesterday, they were somewhat resistant to the idea of going on a wild road trip toward even lower levels with their crazy European friends.   US rates were nonetheless on that trip just long enough for the average 30yr fixed rate quote to touch 5.99% for top tier scenarios. For all practical purposes, that means mortgage rates are basically at 6% with some lenders quoting slightly lower and a few more lenders quoting slightly higher.

Home Seller's Profit Skyrockets In 2022

 

 

Home Seller’s Profit Skyrockets In 2022

 

2022 Price Slowdown? Home Sellers’ Profits Still Rose Prices didn’t stop rising in 2022, increases just slowed.  U.S. sellers averaged a $112K profit, up 21% – and eight of the top investment returns were in Fla. metros.  According to Attom’s end-of-year report, the typical sales profit percentage rose from 2021’s 45% to 51% last year, even with values dropping in the second half of 2022. Orlando (ROI up from 42.2% to 62.2%) "It seems pretty likely that home seller profits peaked for this cycle in 2022," says Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at Attom

Mortgage Applications on the Rise

 

 

 

Mortgage Applications on the Rise

 

Mortgage Apps are on the Rise as Rates Drift Lower Mortgage loan activity posted a third straight gain during the week ended January 20.  The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index increased 7.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and rose 1 percent on an unadjusted basis. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 3 percent and was 1 percent higher on an unadjusted basis. Activity was 39 percent lower than the same week one year ago. "Mortgage rates declined for the third straight week, which is good news for potential homebuyers looking ahead to the spring homebuying season. Does this mean the bottom of the housing recession?  Not enough information is in to make that call yet.

Home Buyer's Remorse Is Rampant

 

 

Home Buyers Remorse is Rampant

 

Home buyer’s Remorse Is Rampant Among Pandemic Purchasers Keep checking in with your recent home buyers—because they may want to move sooner than you think. But now they may regret the extremes they went to for a home: More than three-fourths of U.S. homeowners who purchased in the prior year expressed regret about their decision.  The top reasons for their regret are feeling like they overspent (30%) or rushed the homebuying process (26%) Many homeowners said that knowing what they know today, they would’ve bought a different home (64%) or waited longer to buy (63%) Others, if they have the financial means, may simply choose to keep the home as part of their investment portfolio. Or Will They Stay? More than half of homeowners said have they had something unexpectedly go wrong since they purchased. The regret and the repairs are also affecting their happiness. But those who do fix up their home may find it will lessen their buyer’s remorse.

The Most Stable Mortgage Rates Since 2021

 

 

The Most Stable Mortgage Rates Since 2021

 

The Most Stable Mortgage Rate Trend Since 2021 There are those who always try to portray the glass as being half full when it comes to the housing market. Before proceeding, a disclaimer is in order.   Outright measurements of housing market health are still not that great. As we've discussed at length in the past few weeks, rates are indeed much improved from 3-4 months ago. But the level of improvement is perhaps not even the most welcome change. Rather, it's the STABILITY. With a range of just over half a percent for more than 3 months, rates haven't seen a narrower, more stable range since late 2021. Interestingly enough, this combination of lower and more stable rates PERFECTLY coincides with a noticeable shift in purchase mortgage applications.

New Home Sale Look Like They Want To Bounce

 

 

New Home Sales Look Like They Want to Bounce

 

New Home Sales Look Like They Want to Bounce The Census Bureau's regularly scheduled monthly report on New Home Sales was released this morning. The annual pace of 616k was right in line with the median forecast of 617k. This is technically an improvement, but only because the previous month was revised down to 602k from 640k. It's unequivocally better than it was on several occasions in the middle of 2022 when the annual pace was closer to 550k. Here too, the chart looks like it wants to bounce (but against a ceiling for inventory as opposed to a floor for sales numbers). It's a bit too soon to declare victory.