Area Real Estate News & Market Trends

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March 1, 2023

Orlando Weekly Housing Market Update | March 2, 2023

Orlando Weekly Housing Market Update

March 2, 2023

 

 

Jobs Report Crushes Mortgage Rates! | Orlando Weekly Housing Market Update

 

This morning's jobs report of 517000 new jobs is crushing the bond market and forcing mortgage rates higher.

 

Home affordability has hit an all time low.  With sales inventory low and prices holding stronger than many had expected, what can buyer’s do to still purchase their dream home. Join Joseph Dionne of Appli Home Loans and I as we look at the factors affecting the housing market.  Will buyers just step back? We will try to answer all these questions and more, so join us.

March 1, 2023

$2.3 Trillion In Home Values Lost

$2.3 Trillion In Home Values Lost

 

 

$2.3 Trillion In Home Values Lost

 

U.S. Homeowners Have Lost $2.3 Trillion In Value Since June Peak The total value of U.S. homes was $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, down 4.9% ($2.3 trillion) from a record high of $47.7 trillion in June. That’s the largest June-to-December drop in percentage terms since 2008. The housing market has been shedding value because homebuyer demand has waned, which has also caused home prices to fall from their peak. The median U.S. home sale price was $383,249 in January, down 11.5% from a peak of $433,133 in May. Homebuyer demand slowed in large part because rising mortgage rates—a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s effort to curb inflation—made purchasing a home more expensive.

 

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Posted in Topic Of Interest
March 1, 2023

Home Affordability Hits Record Low!

Home Affordability Hits Record Low!

 

 

Home Affordability Hits Record Low!

 

Home Affordability Hits Record Low in U.S. The National Association of Home Builders is reporting this week that U.S. housing affordability posted three consecutive quarterly declines in 2022 and now stands at its lowest level. According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, just 38.1% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of October and end of December were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $90,000.  This marks the third straight quarterly record low for housing affordability since the Great Recession While the HOI shows that the national median home price fell to $370,000 in the fourth quarter, it is still the third-highest median price in the history of the series

 

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Posted in Topic Of Interest
Feb. 28, 2023

Pending Home Sales Jump!

Pending Home Sales Jump!

 

 

Pending Home Sales Jump!

 

Pending Home Sales Rose Sharply in January The National Association of Realtors®  said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 8.1 percent in January to a reading of 82.5. Prior to the December uptick, pending home sales had fallen for 13 straight months. Last month’s PHSI reading was down 24.1 percent compared to the January 2022 level of 108.7. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, "Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January. Despite an improving interest rate environment and job gains, annual existing-home sales are forecasted to drop 11.1 percent this year to a total of 4.47 million units. All four U.S. regions posted monthly gains but saw year-over-year drops in transactions.

 

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Feb. 26, 2023

Multi-Generational Home Buying Near All-Time High

Multi-Generational Home Buying Near All-Time High

 

 

Multi-Generational Home Buying Near All-Time High

 

All in the Family: Multi-Generational Home Buying This past year, NAR collected data in the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, which shows that multi-generational buying is back near an all-time high at 14%. This is up from 11% in the 2021 report. In 2020, the report found a low before the COVID-19 pandemic of 11%, followed by an immediate gain to 15% of all buyers. Reasons to purchase a multi-generational home vary among first-time and repeat buyers. For both first-time and repeat buyers, about 30% report that caretaking or spending time with aging relatives is important. In the midst of this, it is not hard to imagine a Gen Xer needing to buy a larger home for all generations of the family to happily cohabit in one home. As we see the transition of the large Baby Boomer generation age into retirement, it will be interesting to see if they move in with their Millennial and Gen Z children or if they stay put in their own homes.

 

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Feb. 26, 2023

Economic News - The Week Ahead February 26th

Economic News - The Week Ahead

 

 

Economic News - The Week Ahead

 

The Week Ahead -Economic News Influencing The Housing & Mortgage Markets Monday:Durable GoodsPending Home Sales 

Tuesday:Case-Shiller Home Price IndexFHFA House Price Index 

Wednesday:MBA Mortgage Applicaitons, ISM Manufacturing Index,Construction Spending Thursday:Jobless Claims 

Friday:ISM Services Index 

Each of these reports can help show which way the housing market will move coming into the spring selling season.

 

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Feb. 24, 2023

Builder Conficence Jumps!

Builder Confidence Jumps!

 

 

Builder Confidence Jumps!

 

Builder Confidence Sees Biggest Jump in 10 Years, But is Still in The Toilet The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) shot higher in February, achieving a second monthly gain. NAHB’s chief economist Robert Dietz said the 7-point increase in the HMI brought it to 42, its highest level since September 2022. "The increases indicate that incremental gains for housing affordability have the ability to price-in buyers to the market. While the HMI remains below the 50-point breakeven level, Dietz noted that the 11-point gain over the last two months is a positive sign for the market. " Builders continue to offer incentives to attract buyers, but the numbers are improving. Fifty-seven percent offered some type of incentive in February, down from 62 percent in December and 59 percent in November.

Feb. 23, 2023

FHA Lowers MIP rates for home buyers

FHA Lowers MIP Rates For Home Buyers

 

 

FHA Lowers MIP rates for home buyers

Transcript:

1
00:00:03,290 --> 00:00:06,640
Good morning, Brenden with
The Homes In Orlando team.

2
00:00:06,959 --> 00:00:11,423
Joined again here Joseph Dionne of
Appli Home Loans. Happy Thursday.

3
00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,835
What is up excited to be here?
We got some good news today,

4
00:00:14,915 --> 00:00:17,749
I think or some mixed news. We
got a whole bunch of random. Yeah.

5
00:00:17,868 --> 00:00:21,816
We got we got some good have
a little bit of not so good.

6
00:00:22,274 --> 00:00:25,467
But been a while since we actually
been able, like, come out and say,

7
00:00:25,587 --> 00:00:29,574
hey, this is good news for
the consumers. For the consumer, Yes.

8
00:00:30,113 --> 00:00:34,328
And that good news is
Fha announced yesterday.

9
00:00:36,679 --> 00:00:40,112
That they are going to lower
the mortgage insurance premium.

10
00:00:40,790 --> 00:00:43,944
Yep. So that's the monthly amount that
is... That's some mortgage insurance.

11
00:00:44,064 --> 00:00:48,752
And it's been set at point eight
five for... I don't know, Gosh.

12
00:00:48,871 --> 00:00:51,668
The last five years six. I
don't know. It could been long.

13
00:00:51,788 --> 00:00:55,400
I don't remember, but they're dropping
it down to point five five percent.

14
00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:59,900
That's a thirty pin reduction
on a Mi, and that's actually...

15
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,160
Like, that's a decent
number for consumers.

16
00:01:02,574 --> 00:01:06,982
Actually a little bit of savings
some some some gust to that savings.

17
00:01:07,399 --> 00:01:11,227
Yep. Yeah. Let's let's look at it
because we actually ran a couple

18
00:01:11,227 --> 00:01:14,237
little numbers. To show people
what the savings is gonna be.

19
00:01:14,796 --> 00:01:16,973
Why don't you go ahead and go through
it because this is your specialty.

20
00:01:17,232 --> 00:01:20,402
Oh, yeah. So I mean, I kinda
of use like some round numbers

21
00:01:20,402 --> 00:01:21,559
just so we get some
different ideas.

22
00:01:21,679 --> 00:01:24,074
So I said two hundred and fifty
thousand dollar buyer with

23
00:01:24,074 --> 00:01:24,952
three and a half
percent down.

24
00:01:25,032 --> 00:01:27,706
So that's just your standard like,
hey, you're minimum FHA loan,

25
00:01:27,826 --> 00:01:30,698
but we're gonna say hundred and
fifty thousand is the purchase price.

26
00:01:31,077 --> 00:01:34,473
And currently, the monthly
mi that point eight five is

27
00:01:34,473 --> 00:01:37,270
right out of about a hundred and sixty
nine dollars and ninety eight cents.

28
00:01:37,845 --> 00:01:39,642
The new would be a hundred
and nine ninety eight.

29
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This actually perfect just a super
round sixty dollars straightforward.

30
00:01:43,916 --> 00:01:45,887
What that means is, you
either for the same home,

31
00:01:46,007 --> 00:01:48,623
you save sixty dollars just
because of this change,

32
00:01:49,241 --> 00:01:52,115
or if you wanted to keep
that same payment as before,

33
00:01:52,234 --> 00:01:54,071
you get about eight
thousand in buying power.

34
00:01:54,803 --> 00:01:56,875
Then to give that little bit
differences is, you know...

35
00:01:57,592 --> 00:02:00,244
Let's say four hundred
thousand dollar purchase price.

36
00:02:00,421 --> 00:02:03,830
You now the change is almost
is... You know, almost...

37
00:02:03,950 --> 00:02:05,590
You know, we're talking
ninety five ninety eight,

38
00:02:05,830 --> 00:02:09,350
much bigger change or month
monthly savings on that.

39
00:02:09,430 --> 00:02:10,925
And that's actually a little
bit more buying power.

40
00:02:11,085 --> 00:02:13,725
So twelve thousand five
hundred and just a buying power.

41
00:02:13,925 --> 00:02:16,765
I think, like, you you think
about that on a four hundred

42
00:02:16,765 --> 00:02:19,980
thousand dollar home, which
it's kinda two fifty and our

43
00:02:19,980 --> 00:02:23,340
market is on the lower side
of what kind of buyers is.

44
00:02:24,060 --> 00:02:26,794
And then four hundred is kind
of the eye of the median, like,

45
00:02:26,914 --> 00:02:29,950
in the middle high side of
the median. Right? Correct. Yeah.

46
00:02:30,070 --> 00:02:31,309
We're right there
kind of it's there.

47
00:02:31,469 --> 00:02:34,905
But more buyers are in that four
hundred thousand, I think right now.

48
00:02:36,236 --> 00:02:38,549
Yeah. And a hundred dollars
is a hundred dollars.

49
00:02:38,709 --> 00:02:42,098
Like, I think all of us would like
to save a hundred dollars a month.

50
00:02:42,218 --> 00:02:47,425
I mean, that's almost to take a gas for
my truck. So I'm I'm happy with that.

51
00:02:47,545 --> 00:02:48,785
If I can get
a free tank, like,

52
00:02:48,985 --> 00:02:51,865
that's for doing nothing else
and just being an awesome person,

53
00:02:51,985 --> 00:02:56,016
and and being ready to go when
that change goes into play.

54
00:02:56,275 --> 00:02:58,992
Yeah I mean, that's that's twelve
hundred dollars a year. Yeah.

55
00:02:59,152 --> 00:03:03,116
That's a nice savings. So
and that change doesn't it go

56
00:03:03,116 --> 00:03:06,684
into effect until March twentieth.
So we're about a month ahead.

57
00:03:07,021 --> 00:03:09,669
You know, they've gotta do
the little bit of that P and

58
00:03:09,669 --> 00:03:11,027
give that updates
to the release.

59
00:03:11,147 --> 00:03:14,045
We gotta make sure Hud
gets to have their official

60
00:03:14,064 --> 00:03:18,814
announcement and press conference if
you have president they're little bit.

61
00:03:19,033 --> 00:03:20,831
Right right You know, we
gotta make sure those things

62
00:03:20,831 --> 00:03:22,189
happen before it
to go into effect.

63
00:03:22,269 --> 00:03:24,585
And there's some administrative
pieces obviously as well.

64
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,594
Like, you know, you can't
just change the number of one

65
00:03:27,594 --> 00:03:29,908
system and it change for
everything. So... Yeah.

66
00:03:30,028 --> 00:03:33,421
It's I mean, it really makes sense
because when you looked at the funding,

67
00:03:34,473 --> 00:03:40,976
Fha Mi. It was... The way they
calculate, it was extremely over funded.

68
00:03:41,550 --> 00:03:45,824
Yeah. Very finding. Which
honestly, you know, got...

69
00:03:46,024 --> 00:03:48,861
I understand everyone's
caution, especially, you know,

70
00:03:49,795 --> 00:03:52,429
going back to the to the recession
of, you know, two thousand seven,

71
00:03:52,548 --> 00:03:56,042
two thousand eight when they, you
know, cost them a lot of money.

72
00:03:56,220 --> 00:04:00,970
So better safe than sorry overall.
Definitely better safe than sorry overall.

73
00:04:01,510 --> 00:04:04,070
And then the other
news... It's it's nice,

74
00:04:04,190 --> 00:04:07,564
but it's not making the effect that
I think that they wanted it to.

75
00:04:07,724 --> 00:04:12,035
Unit just before... I mean,
Fha stole all the thunder here,

76
00:04:12,315 --> 00:04:15,428
because I made an announcement
just beforehand but they're

77
00:04:15,428 --> 00:04:18,439
reducing their funding
fee. This is awesome.

78
00:04:18,598 --> 00:04:21,196
So the funding fee
for Va is front.

79
00:04:21,356 --> 00:04:24,513
It's it's kind of like, hey, You don't
have one mortgage insurance with Vm.

80
00:04:24,632 --> 00:04:27,642
We have this funding fee, and
it's a little bit higher And

81
00:04:27,642 --> 00:04:31,188
it was two point three, and
now it's gonna be two point one

82
00:04:31,188 --> 00:04:35,669
five of point one five reduction and
then on sub point use, it was two...

83
00:04:35,828 --> 00:04:39,245
Or three point six. Now it's gonna be
three point three little bit bigger.

84
00:04:39,544 --> 00:04:42,501
And I just... I just wanted to give
you guys just super simple like,

85
00:04:42,741 --> 00:04:46,555
hey. X's and o's, like, you
know, rounding round numbers.

86
00:04:46,715 --> 00:04:50,075
I even look at what it was. I just
kinda went into a prior file and said,

87
00:04:50,195 --> 00:04:53,447
hey, what's it look like You're
talking that drop is about

88
00:04:53,447 --> 00:04:55,525
six hundred dollars
on that funding fee.

89
00:04:55,725 --> 00:05:00,355
But realize how many veterans pay
their funding fee up upfront zero?

90
00:05:00,615 --> 00:05:04,975
Like, nobody does because Va
allows you to put it into the loan

91
00:05:04,975 --> 00:05:08,108
and increase the loan amount
to cover that funding fee very,

92
00:05:08,308 --> 00:05:10,699
rarely do we see veterans
pay that upfront.

93
00:05:11,177 --> 00:05:14,764
And so what happens is it mostly
gets paid in and built into the loan.

94
00:05:14,924 --> 00:05:17,891
So what's that impact? I had
to go to four hundred thousand.

95
00:05:18,010 --> 00:05:19,806
Just try to give a little
bit of an impact.

96
00:05:19,926 --> 00:05:22,760
So you can that Great
Like, you right there.

97
00:05:22,959 --> 00:05:25,210
On this scenario, it was
kind of like, Alright.

98
00:05:25,449 --> 00:05:29,745
Boom, you're saving less than
four dollars a month. Like...

99
00:05:31,003 --> 00:05:33,760
That's one gallon of gas for
your truck, Joe. That's it.

100
00:05:34,095 --> 00:05:37,615
I made this one gallon. So
over the course of the year

101
00:05:37,615 --> 00:05:42,808
you're saving about forty bucks. Or
what is that forty eight dollars?

102
00:05:43,826 --> 00:05:50,115
It's still the savings. Yeah. You know
all the order. Okay. So there is...

103
00:05:50,235 --> 00:05:53,355
I mean, it is a dollar for dollar
savings. So I don't wanna discredit it.

104
00:05:53,475 --> 00:05:57,435
It is the savings. It is a benefit
of veterans because it was again,

105
00:05:57,849 --> 00:06:00,281
they saw that it was
over finding they didn't.

106
00:06:00,401 --> 00:06:01,677
They could pull
back a little bit.

107
00:06:01,796 --> 00:06:04,348
They didn't feel that they had as
much room to pull back as others.

108
00:06:04,706 --> 00:06:08,113
And one thing that I still sit
there and think, Va is still...

109
00:06:08,233 --> 00:06:10,031
Like, it's still a hundred
percent financing.

110
00:06:10,191 --> 00:06:13,307
So note doubt came necessarily
required and it has no

111
00:06:13,307 --> 00:06:18,070
monthly mortgage insurance. So even
though Fha had a bigger adjustment,

112
00:06:18,708 --> 00:06:21,539
if you're if you're eligible
for epi take and Va,

113
00:06:21,779 --> 00:06:24,411
b is still gonna be a better
loan option for you. Oh, yeah.

114
00:06:24,984 --> 00:06:28,157
Is it doesn't have the mortgage insurance.
The monthly mortgage insurance.

115
00:06:28,415 --> 00:06:32,580
Yep. Yep. Completely all day
long. Yeah. All day long. Sound.

116
00:06:32,700 --> 00:06:36,440
So that really was. That was
our good news for the consumers.

117
00:06:37,020 --> 00:06:39,980
But unfortunately, we had to come
back and hit them with a little

118
00:06:39,980 --> 00:06:42,849
bit of not so
good news. Right?

119
00:06:43,306 --> 00:06:46,495
Sometimes I think markets adjust
because they know this news gonna hit.

120
00:06:47,252 --> 00:06:52,277
You he you're what you're you'll
wonder sometimes. And yeah it just...

121
00:06:52,976 --> 00:06:55,093
Alright. We're gonna save
a hundred bucks a month,

122
00:06:55,293 --> 00:07:00,319
but then interest rates have slowly
been creeping up over the past week.

123
00:07:00,537 --> 00:07:04,886
Yep. And you can see, you know,
the valentine's day were six point six two,

124
00:07:05,778 --> 00:07:10,083
And as of yesterday, the average
nationally was six point eight eight.

125
00:07:10,482 --> 00:07:14,763
Yeah. So that little bit of
savings we had gonna get eaten

126
00:07:14,763 --> 00:07:17,635
up by the new by the little
bit higher interest rates yes.

127
00:07:17,795 --> 00:07:21,185
And it's gonna be interesting to see
because if we see this trend continue,

128
00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,677
when you see the movement that
we saw in these markets in

129
00:07:24,677 --> 00:07:29,592
the bond market and so forth, like,
sometimes when see these big jumps,

130
00:07:30,071 --> 00:07:32,562
these investors don't...
Like, they...

131
00:07:32,761 --> 00:07:34,637
They're forced
to increase rate,

132
00:07:34,797 --> 00:07:37,870
but they kinda hold back
more than where they probably

133
00:07:37,870 --> 00:07:39,586
should sometimes because
they're like, crap.

134
00:07:41,077 --> 00:07:45,506
We're already slowing down jump
in a half percent overnight

135
00:07:45,506 --> 00:07:47,540
or in a week or two.
We're gonna be toast.

136
00:07:47,994 --> 00:07:50,230
So then they sit they're say,
let's let's tighten in our

137
00:07:50,230 --> 00:07:53,063
margins even more so that
we can slow how long.

138
00:07:53,143 --> 00:07:56,815
So I think if we see this and we don't
see these markets kind of adjust back,

139
00:07:57,230 --> 00:07:58,906
a little bit pullback
back a little bit.

140
00:07:59,065 --> 00:08:01,100
I I think we're gonna
continue to see these rates.

141
00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:04,452
Even if we stay flat, we're
gonna see these rates creep up

142
00:08:04,452 --> 00:08:07,685
over the next month. Yeah. I
think I think we're gonna stay

143
00:08:09,025 --> 00:08:12,225
stay in this area probably
through the summer.

144
00:08:12,305 --> 00:08:19,403
And the reason why I say that, Main
reason is the Fed, I think there...

145
00:08:20,298 --> 00:08:24,765
As long as that core inflation
number stays where it's sitting.

146
00:08:25,705 --> 00:08:29,905
They're forced to continue to
increase interest rates. Yeah.

147
00:08:30,105 --> 00:08:36,695
They have to. Yeah. We'll reset
at in six point eight eight two.

148
00:08:37,074 --> 00:08:39,471
You know, so there
they're goals too.

149
00:08:39,591 --> 00:08:41,403
And they're they're
far from it,

150
00:08:41,723 --> 00:08:45,638
which means that they're gonna
have to continue to prep you know,

151
00:08:46,358 --> 00:08:48,809
continue that rate increase.
And I think you know,

152
00:08:49,209 --> 00:08:53,200
more of them have come out to
another half a point increase

153
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:57,911
at the next meeting as opposed to
the slower quarter point. Yeah.

154
00:08:59,801 --> 00:09:01,777
Interest. Right? You know,
It just rate increase.

155
00:09:02,075 --> 00:09:06,319
And I think that's that's gonna
continue to force the the bond

156
00:09:06,319 --> 00:09:10,494
market yields to stay to stay
a little bit higher until we

157
00:09:11,312 --> 00:09:14,365
until we can get to that level,
where they can actually say,

158
00:09:14,605 --> 00:09:19,145
okay. Yeah. It's it's really... We've...
The economy's is really slowed down.

159
00:09:20,325 --> 00:09:26,700
You know, you're looking at continued
wage increases. Walmart came out.

160
00:09:27,700 --> 00:09:31,033
They're they're jumping people
from seventeen to seventeen fifty,

161
00:09:31,113 --> 00:09:32,112
which doesn't
seem like a lot.

162
00:09:32,192 --> 00:09:36,067
But when you look at the number of
employees that that Walmart has.

163
00:09:36,227 --> 00:09:38,718
That's that's that's
okay. That number. Yeah.

164
00:09:38,878 --> 00:09:43,621
Then Home Depot also came out and
announced an increase in wages.

165
00:09:44,737 --> 00:09:48,997
Yeah. So the wage pressure is
continuing to increase which

166
00:09:49,931 --> 00:09:51,763
unfortunately is gonna
continue to, you know,

167
00:09:51,962 --> 00:09:55,885
force that that inflation number.
Up a little bit. And until we...

168
00:09:56,085 --> 00:10:00,276
Until we hit that, we're just...
It it it's gonna continue to do it.

169
00:10:00,436 --> 00:10:02,812
And I think one thing we're
gonna see later from the numbers.

170
00:10:03,883 --> 00:10:10,089
That's really important is how
rates sensitive buyers are. Yeah.

171
00:10:10,347 --> 00:10:12,437
You know. They are
extremely rate sensitive.

172
00:10:12,596 --> 00:10:15,709
And I think we're gonna see that
when we get into the numbers

173
00:10:15,709 --> 00:10:18,222
here in a in a just
a moment. Mh.

174
00:10:18,382 --> 00:10:24,856
So It's it's a fine balancing game right
now, you know, going into the spring.

175
00:10:25,454 --> 00:10:28,005
You know, when we go in there,
we start looking at our numbers,

176
00:10:28,539 --> 00:10:29,975
Let me hop back
up to the top.

177
00:10:32,926 --> 00:10:36,116
And this is something we have
mentioned is that mid January,

178
00:10:36,236 --> 00:10:37,990
we saw we saw those
interest rates dropped.

179
00:10:38,324 --> 00:10:43,742
We got down, you know, low sixes
around the sixes. And what did we do?

180
00:10:44,459 --> 00:10:49,702
We jumped to about four hundred... We
had four hundred closing last week.

181
00:10:50,939 --> 00:10:55,051
In January, January, we were sitting
at that two hundred per week level.

182
00:10:57,140 --> 00:11:00,091
And when you looked at the number
nationally for January,

183
00:11:00,251 --> 00:11:04,877
it was the lowest number of sales,
home sales in, like, twenty years.

184
00:11:05,569 --> 00:11:09,158
Yeah. And they all they're
projecting maybe four million...

185
00:11:09,238 --> 00:11:11,112
You know, it's not
a small number,

186
00:11:11,231 --> 00:11:14,700
but four million total sales nationally
for the for twenty twenty three.

187
00:11:15,275 --> 00:11:18,795
Yep, which is a low number. You know,
we're we're staying consistent.

188
00:11:18,915 --> 00:11:21,515
You know, we we jump up and down
on the median price little bit.

189
00:11:21,675 --> 00:11:25,245
We're sitting right in that four
hundred thousand dollar mark...

190
00:11:25,325 --> 00:11:28,676
You know, plus or minus a little
bit. But here's the thing again.

191
00:11:29,633 --> 00:11:34,575
Inventory dropping. It's just been
a consistent drop in the inventory.

192
00:11:35,790 --> 00:11:37,943
And then overall
prices, you know,

193
00:11:38,621 --> 00:11:42,790
our original list to final
a list we're consistent right in

194
00:11:42,790 --> 00:11:46,070
that ninety two percent mark and
I have been for the past month.

195
00:11:46,870 --> 00:11:51,825
You know, and ninety six percent roughly
for the final list to sales price.

196
00:11:52,005 --> 00:11:53,865
And again, we're
sitting consistent.

197
00:11:55,205 --> 00:11:58,780
Then when you look at it on
a graph, you can see how you know,

198
00:11:58,980 --> 00:12:03,500
here's here's the month of January,
two hundred two fifty, two fifty,

199
00:12:03,980 --> 00:12:06,540
you know, two twenty
five. We jumped.

200
00:12:07,354 --> 00:12:09,452
At the end of the month,
which we always do.

201
00:12:10,270 --> 00:12:13,106
And then we we pull back
a little bit but came back up.

202
00:12:13,266 --> 00:12:17,215
And that's that I truly
believe is all rate sensitivity

203
00:12:17,832 --> 00:12:19,269
because people saw
that six percent.

204
00:12:19,389 --> 00:12:24,950
So, you know, a little breath of
fresh air, hey, you know, six percent,

205
00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:29,970
I can go ahead and pull the trigger,
but six point seven five seven percent,

206
00:12:30,130 --> 00:12:32,658
I'm gonna have to
wait. Yep. You know,

207
00:12:32,898 --> 00:12:36,614
that that difference in the payment
is is just making, you know,

208
00:12:36,774 --> 00:12:39,650
it it's making a lot of
a lot of people hesitant.

209
00:12:40,345 --> 00:12:43,625
And what and we talked about
this a lot is is the uncertainty.

210
00:12:43,785 --> 00:12:47,465
Right? It's our rate's gonna go back
down. Are they here? Where do they stay?

211
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,996
Where we saw rates kinda drop
a little bit, and they just sit there.

212
00:12:51,556 --> 00:12:54,153
People were okay that rates
were higher than when they were

213
00:12:54,153 --> 00:12:56,230
a year ago or higher than
where they are two years.

214
00:12:56,804 --> 00:12:59,481
But when it's moving up and
moving down and moving up, like,

215
00:12:59,641 --> 00:13:01,718
people go when it's on
the way up, they go okay.

216
00:13:01,837 --> 00:13:04,849
Maybe it's gonna go back down
like it did three other times

217
00:13:04,849 --> 00:13:09,284
in the last six months. Mh. And that's
where I feel like we get this like,

218
00:13:09,763 --> 00:13:12,320
hold back of not only a losing
buyers because rates are

219
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,735
going up and it they're
being priced out.

220
00:13:14,935 --> 00:13:17,215
We're losing buyers because they're
sitting on the sideline going,

221
00:13:17,375 --> 00:13:22,508
where we go. Yep. And you get
you read the headlines and

222
00:13:22,508 --> 00:13:25,824
it's all over the place.
It it really is. You know.

223
00:13:26,184 --> 00:13:27,941
And one of the people
I I've just...

224
00:13:28,061 --> 00:13:31,571
I've got disagree with,
respectfully, at this time is very.

225
00:13:32,189 --> 00:13:36,061
You know, it was a very well known
person in our in our industry.

226
00:13:36,301 --> 00:13:38,935
No. I'm. I I do... I'm just... I've
just... I gotta disagree with them.

227
00:13:39,429 --> 00:13:42,497
Yeah Know he was here's right to
a point with the pullback, you know,

228
00:13:42,616 --> 00:13:45,285
the the initial inflation
rate of eight point two. Yeah.

229
00:13:45,365 --> 00:13:49,167
It's gonna pull back when
that pulled pulls back our our

230
00:13:49,167 --> 00:13:51,081
interest rates should
fall. Anyway right.

231
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,868
What the problem is, he was
projecting continued decrease

232
00:13:54,868 --> 00:13:57,635
in the inflation right.
Mh. We're not getting it.

233
00:13:58,353 --> 00:14:02,382
And until we get it, rates will not
pull back. They can't pull that.

234
00:14:02,621 --> 00:14:06,555
Yeah. And you look at what's happening
here, we have, like, you know,

235
00:14:07,115 --> 00:14:09,075
you see inflation
not pulling back.

236
00:14:09,155 --> 00:14:12,049
We're seeing like the jobless
jobless claims report,

237
00:14:12,129 --> 00:14:14,966
like the it just came out. And they're
saying there's a small decrease.

238
00:14:15,125 --> 00:14:18,002
Like, like, okay. So less
people are losing their job,

239
00:14:18,082 --> 00:14:20,815
The whether it's broken mirrors,
I don't know. But, like, Alright.

240
00:14:20,935 --> 00:14:22,535
So less people are
losing their jobs.

241
00:14:22,695 --> 00:14:26,375
We're still super strong, but, you know,
we can't say for a fact that we know.

242
00:14:26,535 --> 00:14:28,935
It's a lot harder to
find a job right now.

243
00:14:29,510 --> 00:14:33,330
If you had of work, like, that's
definitely gotten harder. But...

244
00:14:33,670 --> 00:14:37,410
It's hard to be like, hey, inflation
up, but employment is still,

245
00:14:37,670 --> 00:14:42,365
you know, unemployment it's inside all
time low. Like where's that balance?

246
00:14:42,485 --> 00:14:44,605
Like, you almost... Sometimes
like, you need, like,

247
00:14:45,245 --> 00:14:48,059
more people to lose their job
to help taper for some this,

248
00:14:48,179 --> 00:14:51,676
but you don't want that for anybody,
but you don't... Yeah. And...

249
00:14:53,213 --> 00:14:56,170
Yeah. Feds looking at that employment
number going... It's still too strong.

250
00:14:56,545 --> 00:15:00,065
It's still too strong. And and
that's the hard part is the fence

251
00:15:00,065 --> 00:15:03,185
looking at all this data and
they're saying it's still so I

252
00:15:03,185 --> 00:15:06,880
think like he said earlier,
and this we're gonna see we're

253
00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,140
probably gonna see fifty
bp. I think we are.

254
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:13,880
And they're saying possibly three
more adjustments increases this year.

255
00:15:14,934 --> 00:15:20,127
From the fed, which the the hope
we did a quarter back, you know,

256
00:15:20,367 --> 00:15:27,009
a month ago was, like, we're finally
seeing it slow down are the pivot.

257
00:15:27,288 --> 00:15:30,641
And that was placed
really quick.

258
00:15:32,054 --> 00:15:35,449
You know, and that's all of like
a day or two for power say hey guys,

259
00:15:35,649 --> 00:15:38,605
take your expectations,
which then drove rates up.

260
00:15:39,737 --> 00:15:42,210
You know, on the mortgage
side we saw how to go and and

261
00:15:42,210 --> 00:15:44,842
it's like where we at
now, I think that's...

262
00:15:45,001 --> 00:15:47,474
I think ultimately
until we see, you know,

263
00:15:48,032 --> 00:15:52,920
it's we want a soft landing
but the Feds saying, hey.

264
00:15:53,039 --> 00:15:57,008
We want a soft landing, but we also
wanna see some turmoil. Or yeah.

265
00:15:57,128 --> 00:15:58,665
We wanna we want
some turbulence.

266
00:15:59,281 --> 00:16:02,312
Like, we wanna land this softly, but
we need to see some turbulence too.

267
00:16:02,671 --> 00:16:04,266
Yep. There's gonna...
There's gonna be paying.

268
00:16:04,346 --> 00:16:06,714
I mean, they flat out said,
hey there we're we've gotta

269
00:16:06,714 --> 00:16:11,185
have a little bit pain. Yeah. Able
to do able to pull back. Yeah.

270
00:16:11,544 --> 00:16:12,423
The... Quite
honestly, though,

271
00:16:12,542 --> 00:16:19,677
the the thing that is really
helping sellers at this point

272
00:16:20,133 --> 00:16:23,734
maintain their values
is right here. Yeah.

273
00:16:23,894 --> 00:16:26,411
And we'd say it every week and
we've said it every week for

274
00:16:26,411 --> 00:16:32,980
the past couple months, inventory. Yep.
Our inventory. We have just been on a...

275
00:16:33,220 --> 00:16:37,860
Since since November, we been on
a constant decrease in inventory.

276
00:16:38,380 --> 00:16:42,271
Mh. Every single week where
you're dropping our inventory.

277
00:16:42,790 --> 00:16:46,345
And as long as that inventory
continues to drop, you,

278
00:16:47,477 --> 00:16:51,045
the the prices aren't we're
not gonna see that decrease

279
00:16:51,422 --> 00:16:53,573
that other parts of
the country have have seen.

280
00:16:54,131 --> 00:16:56,421
You know, you know, other
parts of the country,

281
00:16:56,540 --> 00:17:00,712
their their inventories jumped,
you know, a lot more than ours.

282
00:17:00,850 --> 00:17:02,965
And then, you know, we're
an constant decrease.

283
00:17:03,660 --> 00:17:07,820
So we've got all these people
coming in and we're just...

284
00:17:07,980 --> 00:17:11,975
We don't have the inventory
of homes. Forum them. You yep?

285
00:17:12,755 --> 00:17:15,535
You know, and and it's the same
thing even with rental properties.

286
00:17:15,995 --> 00:17:18,275
There's no rental properties
for these people and that's

287
00:17:18,275 --> 00:17:21,787
why we're continuously see all
these Apartments being built.

288
00:17:22,086 --> 00:17:27,794
Yep. You know, for us, for us to see
a a a push downward in home values,

289
00:17:28,632 --> 00:17:33,156
a real push, that inventory
gotta got shoot up. Know.

290
00:17:33,315 --> 00:17:36,746
We've gotta get a thousand, you
know, fifteen hundred home increase.

291
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:42,055
But why when you looked at
the numbers, so I saw graph yesterday,

292
00:17:42,874 --> 00:17:47,403
seventy five percent of homeowners
have an interest rate of

293
00:17:47,403 --> 00:17:56,147
three percent or lower. Seventy five
percent Yeah. They're not moving.

294
00:17:56,346 --> 00:18:00,135
I don't care. They have something
that has to happen. Yeah.

295
00:18:00,335 --> 00:18:05,345
You've got, like, increase jab
relocation, need more space.

296
00:18:05,465 --> 00:18:06,505
Like, you gotta
have a reason.

297
00:18:06,625 --> 00:18:10,225
You you're losing those buyers that
are just like, how what a new house?

298
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,796
Like, hey. I'm like... I like another
bedroom, but I don't need one.

299
00:18:14,356 --> 00:18:17,232
Like god I like a home
office, but I don't need one.

300
00:18:17,432 --> 00:18:20,963
Like, it's hard to be like, oh,
Not only do I have to pay way more?

301
00:18:21,082 --> 00:18:23,519
Yeah. I could sell my home for
more, but I got a pay reward.

302
00:18:24,158 --> 00:18:28,444
And then I got a monthly pay
name way more because interest

303
00:18:28,444 --> 00:18:32,588
rates I'm lose mine by my two
point seven five or two point

304
00:18:32,588 --> 00:18:37,991
two five or two point three five like,
You. Seems like buyers one exactly.

305
00:18:38,071 --> 00:18:43,358
You got a three. Like... Yep.
And and you're just you're

306
00:18:43,358 --> 00:18:47,428
just gonna see people sit.
And one of the things you you

307
00:18:47,428 --> 00:18:50,221
are seeing though is the increase
in home equity lines or credit.

308
00:18:50,795 --> 00:18:52,553
Yeah. Because people are doing
exactly what you said, yeah.

309
00:18:52,632 --> 00:18:55,149
I'd I love that additional
bedroom. Maybe I'm better off.

310
00:18:55,909 --> 00:18:58,266
Borrowing against
the equity in my home. Yep.

311
00:18:58,466 --> 00:19:04,385
And doing it, you know, just building
on here. Yep. Yeah. Or you know what?

312
00:19:04,584 --> 00:19:08,589
Yeah. Do I need a bigger house
what I like in your house yeah,

313
00:19:08,708 --> 00:19:11,780
but let me just do some renovations.
You know, let me redo the...

314
00:19:11,980 --> 00:19:16,907
Let redo that bathroom. Y. And I mean,
all the contractors I'm talking to,

315
00:19:17,027 --> 00:19:19,983
they're still they're still
extremely lousy. Swamped.

316
00:19:20,982 --> 00:19:25,211
And a lot of it is this renovation
type work. That's going on for them.

317
00:19:25,987 --> 00:19:28,403
Exactly. So I
mean, it's just...

318
00:19:29,219 --> 00:19:34,619
That that is the Golden parachute right
now for sellers. Is the inventory.

319
00:19:35,456 --> 00:19:38,327
And you know, you you... I get questions,
you know, a good time to sell.

320
00:19:38,407 --> 00:19:41,572
And it's like, you know what?
It actually still is. Yep.

321
00:19:41,731 --> 00:19:47,212
If you present your house right, it's
clean, present and price correctly,

322
00:19:47,509 --> 00:19:51,707
it's gonna sell. Yep. I just
got a one point five million

323
00:19:51,707 --> 00:19:58,615
dollar home in double Chase under
contract in six days. Six days.

324
00:19:59,451 --> 00:20:05,890
Yep. And we have multiple people. Mh.
I I was actually taken about wow.

325
00:20:06,010 --> 00:20:09,970
Hope. This is wonderful. You know.
Yep It wasn't expecting it though.

326
00:20:10,650 --> 00:20:11,490
Because when you
look, you know,

327
00:20:11,945 --> 00:20:14,262
up here and you look at the days
on market average stays on

328
00:20:14,262 --> 00:20:19,535
market is jumped to sixty three or
sixty eight. Excuse me. You plan that.

329
00:20:20,030 --> 00:20:23,630
As a as a realtor is okay.
Average is sixty eight.

330
00:20:23,870 --> 00:20:27,850
What what can I do to make sure
that we're below that average?

331
00:20:28,030 --> 00:20:32,991
Yep. So it's just...
It's it's gonna...

332
00:20:33,429 --> 00:20:38,016
That right there is gonna continue to
help the sellers overall in the market.

333
00:20:39,708 --> 00:20:43,044
And we're just... You know, just
watch every week, watch the numbers.

334
00:20:43,343 --> 00:20:48,029
I think we're gonna see the the sales
numbers For March we're gonna drop.

335
00:20:48,189 --> 00:20:50,224
We're probably gonna drop
back down to two hundred two

336
00:20:50,224 --> 00:20:53,536
fifty with the century
rate spike. Yep.

337
00:20:54,629 --> 00:20:58,845
And this is where I think you and I
education wise for our for our clients,

338
00:20:59,185 --> 00:21:02,781
we've got go back into the, you
know, education of the rate by now.

339
00:21:03,380 --> 00:21:06,429
Yep know, offer the different
offer the differences.

340
00:21:06,509 --> 00:21:08,943
You know, do we do a do we
do a permit right by down?

341
00:21:09,063 --> 00:21:15,167
Do we do a two one buy down? I really
haven't gotten into the three two ones.

342
00:21:15,546 --> 00:21:24,630
I'm not so confident in in presenting
those? Two one. Yeah. Permanent?

343
00:21:25,749 --> 00:21:28,466
Yes. Definitely. Yeah. I mean,
the two one definitely...

344
00:21:28,546 --> 00:21:31,352
It's I think the two makes it...
I mean, we see the three two one.

345
00:21:31,472 --> 00:21:36,135
Like, that's like I I I've seen
one seller being willing to

346
00:21:36,135 --> 00:21:39,865
give a credit that. But
the two one does make sense.

347
00:21:40,025 --> 00:21:43,625
I do like, you know,
a permanent buy down too.

348
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,560
It's hard because I do think we're
gonna see that that drop in rates.

349
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,815
So I... And and the one thing
that I do like about two by

350
00:21:52,815 --> 00:21:56,295
down is simply the fact that
they don't lose the money if

351
00:21:56,295 --> 00:21:58,375
they refinance because
it's sitting in an escrow.

352
00:21:58,535 --> 00:22:00,495
So it's not like it's
a hard loss of money.

353
00:22:01,109 --> 00:22:04,026
So if you go down to reduce their
parental payoff off where it can,

354
00:22:04,106 --> 00:22:06,703
you know, cover out a closing
cost like, it's it's there.

355
00:22:07,143 --> 00:22:09,460
You know, So they got
six k left in that.

356
00:22:09,954 --> 00:22:12,624
Escrow for the two one buy
now program because they ref

357
00:22:12,624 --> 00:22:17,645
refinance at nine months. They that
money is still being applied somewhere.

358
00:22:18,179 --> 00:22:21,645
Yep. Yep. That is that's
a huge benefit of it. Mh.

359
00:22:21,885 --> 00:22:25,431
So thank you for joining us. Those
are our numbers for the week.

360
00:22:26,164 --> 00:22:30,072
Appreciate your time again, Joe.
As always. Take care everyone.

361
00:22:30,231 --> 00:22:32,704
We will see you
next Thursday. Good.

 

Posted in Mortgage News
Feb. 22, 2023

Mortgage Rates Are Even Higher Than You Think!

Mortgage Rates Are Even Higher Than You Think!

 

 

Mortgage Rates Are Even Higher Than You Think!

 

Mortgage Rates Are Even Higher Than You've Been Told The conclusion is that there is an abundance of mortgage rate coverage hitting the presses today suggesting rates are "only" up about .2% from 6.12 to 6.32. Unfortunately, the media coverage gives consumers the impression that rates are still where they were on Monday. They're not...  Mortgage rates can change much more quickly than many people realize, and the past few weeks have been great examples. Today, that same lender would be closer to 6.75-6.875%. This is an incredibly abrupt move at almost any other time in the past several decades. Moreover, the most recent highs saw rates well into the 7% range, so if we're still in the 6's, rising rate headlines don't have a ton of shock value.

Posted in Mortgage News
Feb. 21, 2023

Investor home purchases plunge!

Investor Home Purchases Plunge!

 

 

Investor home purchases plunge!

 

Investor home purchases in metro Orlando plunged 52% year-over-year in the fourth quarter Why this story matters: Investor buyers In Orlando's housing market represented as much as 27% of homebuyers during the last two years. Many of those investors were deep-pocketed corporations that helped drive up Central Florida home prices. Here’s a closer look at how investor home deals fared in metro Orlando in Q4: Value of homes bought by investors: $640 million (down from $1.13 billion a year ago) Median price of homes bought by investors: $312,000 (up from $305,000 a year ago) Share of sold homes bought by investors: 21.7% (down from 27.4% a year ago) A big change from last year is fewer out-of-market hedge funds and iBuyers, like Opendoor, buying local homes.