Orlando Weekly Housing Market Update
March 16, 2023
Good morning. It is been
something. Absolutely something.
I'm gonna go with that. Yeah.
You know what I have in my head,
and I was gonna try and and grab it was
to start out with Don Henley's song.
It's goes kick them when they're up,
kick them when they're down take them look.
Because that is that encompasses
this week to a t. Oh, man. Yeah.
It's say craziness this week. It's
been great. All started with What?
SVB, SVB..By now, I'm
sure everyone's aware.
Of SVB, Signature
Bank, Credit Suisse
It's got a bailout out this
morning and fifty six billion
dollars even Europe wanted to get
in on this action. Yeah. Yeah.
Exactly. And then what else
do we get this morning?
We woke up and Jobless claims. Guess what?
They fell they felt we this meeting.
Didn't they fall And then they
went up and were revised up.
But now they're gonna say
they fell again like, do...
Do we just need a little bit of good news
Is that is that what going on here.
We wanted to try to calm everybody
down with some positive news.
That we'll just
revise next week.
What the the the media might manipulate
the news Are? Joe. Je where's your hat
Where's the tin foil... Is that I got
tin foil in it? It does. It does.
It's lined with tin foil. It's
just to keep me warm. Oh my gosh.
Yeah. It just... You know,
the bank failures and you you look
at this stuff and, you
know, I watch barry Be...
I mean, so, you know, of course several
people explaining what went on.
But, you know, you you look
where they try to put in these
rules with the with dodd Frank
to protect from another bank
failure like we had in2008. Guess what.
The rules caused the bank failure.
Too much be bureaucracy. Right?
Yep. Yeah. It... The rule, like
the rule is is that if they
take depositor money and buy treasury bonds
with it which they were encouraging,
banks to bike treasury bonds.
Right? Secure. Yeah. Secure.
But if the bond
yield went down,
they could still claim full value
of the bond on under their sheets.
It what? Yes. That's why that's why when
when they looked at the audit from,
I think two weeks ago, the audit looked
great, except for that little sub.
No way down here. Number fifteen,
or sixteen. Everyone it was.
That that little sub
note down there.
It says, well, we are kind of exposed
because interest rates have gone up.
And if we have to sell, we're gonna
lose our shirt. Yep. And they did.
They did. Yeah. And so what did
that do to our lovely bond market.
Turn that into a total roller
coaster. This is this is five days.
That's it. Five days. Going back
to the eighth. In the ninth.
And just look at this.
Yeah. We were up...
We're up close to to four percent on
the bond yield. Boom what happens?
Okay. Sv b boom. Okay. They did
signature, boom. Well, coming back.
We put in the non bailout
bailout program. Right? Yeah.
It's a fun little program.
It's a funnel program.
I mean, hey, if I could
buy bonds, you know,
and say I could only sell them for eighty
dollar eighty cents on the dollar,
but you're willing give... Let
me loan at a hundred percent.
I'm gonna take that all day long.
That's a win win. It's a win win.
Yeah. Yeah. No, big deal. No
exposure for the taxpayers.
So, yeah. Woo. We saved the banks.
The fed we saved the banks.
Oh, wait. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Hold
on. Europe. Chris west bold my beer.
Let me show you. Let me show you some
systemic losses. Boom back down.
You? So we'll be interesting today
because also of sudden, we got the news,
Credit su got got a bailout. Jobs
numbers look phenomenal. Yeah.
Also okay with the world
again. All is okay.
Markets are already kind
of stable, you know,
we're not seeing huge swings in the Mbs
and right now on the thirty year.
You know, it's
I mean, We are we're seeing
improvements on the thirty year
Mb s and the ten year still
down, but it's kind.
Do we see something else happen
and we see another, you know,
we trade sideways for the day
and then see another drop?
Who else who else can
join? I don't know.
Oh it's just Now what I will say
is for the consumer this has
been fantastic if you were, if you
happen to need to to lock this week,
Because what is all of this meant, Holy
cow it's been great for the consumer.
We're talking almost a half percent in
five days. Like you yep that's nuts.
That's absolutely nuts with what
we've seen on on rates that
we're able to offer consumers
and it's been fantastic.
Now the hard part about that too
is because it's so volatile.
We're just seeing pig, like, like,
these these lenders are like,
holy, like cow. Where do I throw
the dark? So they're... Yeah.
What be where do you price
don't know workings are going.
And thank you so much, sir. Sorry
That. Gotta get Fedex or Ups.
You you beat us better. I'm sorry.
Yeah. Sorry. No but Yeah.
It's just been, you know,
the the the the lenders and so forth,
later in the day.
We're seeing more pauses in and
availability of rates we're
seeing bigger swings somewhere
are going out. Not aggressive.
Some are going really
aggressive and sweet.
So I've seen so much movement in
rep and everything else and,
you know, what we've can taught
our consumers is, like like,
this whole, like, if it's
good, lock it, like, yes.
Like, right now is not
the time to play to be like,
does it keep getting
better and better?
I think we will see it kinda
bounce back up a little bit.
I don't know if we're gonna go
all the way to where we were
Thursday of last week. I think
a lot of this news is gonna
keep it a little bit lower.
Yeah. I think... Yeah.
I think maybe for the next week,
until that twenty second. Yep.
I think everyone's gonna take
a deep breath for right now. Yeah.
So I think. To jerome...
Because, you know,
we we've been watching the the fed watch,
know, over the past couple weeks.
And where people are betting and you
know, we were back here you know,
a week ago. Mh. Only thirty one percent
or bet we're gonna take about...
We're gonna take a half
point jump. Yeah.
And then we did our show last Thursday,
it had jumped to eighty one percent.
Yep. Well back on Monday, I saw it back
down to, like, thirty percent now,
this morning guess
where they're back.
They're back to almost a half a point
jump in the rate. I think...
Man it's... I I he I feel like, if
we see the stock market though,
do poorly these next couple of
days? We may only see a quarter.
I'm gonna say, I I'm gonna say,
I think that if we see it, like,
these are the cracks
in the shop.
This is literally what I think, you
know, the fed's one with J Powell.
He wanted to see this. You have these
events that happened this last week,
this was kind of the cracks
that they wanted.
They were expecting something
like this to happen.
And what that fallout looks like? That's
that's gonna be the question mark.
But he wanted to see someone
hit this little nick. Yeah.
Because he isn't a type... Tight spot
because your consumer price index,
your core number still
very strong. Yeah.
Numbers came out and Tuesday,
and they were well above where
they were he they they wanted them to
be. So you got that's still strong.
Right. But year over year though is down
significantly. So we gotta give...
Like, it has gone
down a little bit,
but it is still way higher than
where the feds want. Like.
Then you got the banks with these
bonds that they bought back when,
the... You know, yields
were a lot lower Yep.
You know, taking, you know, buying three,
four year bonds with depositor money,
know if officers want that money
back. They gotta sell the bonds.
Got somewhat lost, But now you got
the stop gap, yeah. The new program.
So I think that's putting a little bit
of surety back in, but he can't...
That's where if he raises
them keeps raising them,
the bank that loss for the banks is
gonna keep getting bigger and bigger.
Yeah. And that's where
you can push, you know,
some of these frail regional
over the brink. And that's...
And that's the hard part. And who,
you know, you like a Silicon valley,
like, they're one type
of original that, like,
they they they lend to just
really risky endeavors. Right?
Like, you know, tech startups
ups, this and that.
You know, crypto
companies kind of like,
they were one of the few banks
willing to lend to them.
You they weren't
diversified or anything.
But, like, regional banks typically
aren't as diversified as big banks.
They just aren't. Like, because
they're the only ones that
are willing to be like,
hey. We're in a farm area.
We're gonna into those farmers. Because
nobody else will, the big box won't.
Like, so they're gonna do those type
of things. So where do we see?
Could we see these these kind
of kinks start to kinda happen
at a higher frequency?
I don't know.
I think that's why
the fed stuck like,
if the fed didn't do what they did
over the weekend, which like,
I'll give them kudos like, the Fed
did some work over the weekend.
Like, Mh. I mean,
I'm shocked. Like...
I mean, I I know it it's tough
for them to have to make a couple
phone calls on a Sunday. I I most of
them probably haven't done that in,
you know, twenty, thirty years. I
don't know. But I think it had to.
Like, they had to. But that's where
now I'm sitting there going okay.
Do we see more? I don't know
if we're gonna see more.
Hopefully, we don't
we we we have...
We have a society now that
panic about toilet paper.
So I really don't wanna see what
happens if if we do have a,
like, multiple banks start to
have some issues because people
will there will be...
Like, I mean,
there will be a run on
the so hopefully not.
You know, the one thing that I
remind a lot of consumers is like,
hey, like, remember, like,
you're protected to two hundred
and fifty thousand for. Like,
very few people have more than
that exposure with the bank. And
the other side of that is, like,
the reason why there was a rhino
silicon Valley is because
these a tech startups that...
Like, if you're a business,
you don't wanna lose a dollar. And
there's no way to get that back.
Like, if I had a million dollars in
the bank I was like, to two fifty.
I'd be, like, you I'm pulling
everything out. Like, like, I get it.
Like, so I don't... You know,
but what does that entail for
us on the radio scale? We're gonna see.
It's gonna be really interesting.
I mean, I know that you pulled up
the ten year treasury the ten,
and what's really cool is... And
I say cool is we started today
below the two hundred day
moving average. Yes.
So we've been bouncing off
of the fifty percent bid,
which I've getting really technical
on this for the last couple
of days is we did it a couple weeks...
You know, back in January.
We kinda of were, you know, started
so do we do we see a move back down?
Maybe, but we can also see
a shift back up really quickly.
So it's gonna be interesting
to see what happens over these
next couple of days. And I
think we will, like you said,
it might cool down until that
twenty second because that's
when hey what's gonna happen with
the bonds with the the federal
fund rate and if they're gonna raise
it. How much are they gonna raise it?
They're gonna raise it. Right?
Like, we... Fifty that's.
It definitely won't
be more than fifty.
Now A lot of people were we're, like
well he's gonna have to pause now.
So I... There's
I don't I still see, like, and I I
think there could be twenty five.
You know, twenty five
bp could be it.
Like, I don't think that this
event was the type of credit
event that would cause a change it like,
a change in what they're gonna do.
Like, it wouldn't needed
to be much bigger.
And this was a pretty major event,
but I still think it needed...
It would need to be if, you know,
silicon valley was what, like,
the fourteenth biggest bank, sixty
eleven sixteen biggest bang.
If it would... If Silicon
valley was, like,
the seventh biggest bang or six biggest
bang? I'd be like policies changing.
But I think fourteen was
just... They're big, But...
I mean, you know you know,
Jpmorgan Chase has about ten times
the assets you know, twelve
thirteen times assets as silicon
valley of it you're like
yeah. It's just it...
It's funny when you sit there
and you're thinking about okay.
If I was in Vegas right now, what
way am I bad? Ben on something.
I'm losing, but I'm bet
gotcha. Oh, man. So you...
So from the fifty thousand foot view,
that's what we're looking at.
You know. That that's
everything we're looking at.
But then when you come back down, you
know, and do the thousand foot view,
the ten thousand foot view
over over Orlando, you know,
we're still sitting strong. You
know, still sitting strong.
You know, when we get into our numbers,
you know, you're you're seeing that.
So, you know, our inventory
we dropped about fifty one.
And really, this is the biggest
thing that is driving the the
market here in Orlando.
Is where Yeah.
Where other areas that seeing their
inventory continue to shoot up.
It's not us. It's
just not us.
You know, we're we're holding, but we're
we're sure heck neck not going up.
And you're seeing it again in
the in the pricing. Yeah.
You know, we're we've steadily
decreased the amount of discount
that sellers are willing
to give. Yeah. Sometimes.
And we're just hidden buyer season.
Right? Yeah. Yeah. We're buyer season.
I had... Had a busy Friday. I had three
clients put in three offers on Friday.
Mh. And two of them, both
both went over list.
They in that two hundred and three
hundred thousand dollar market,
Mh. And one of them, call the agent
said I'll be sending over an offer.
We got down it was,
like, five forty three.
You know, got home, you know, about
six thirty, about six forty five.
Had almost the whole
thing typed up.
Go back in just to double check
something on the Ml pending.
I'm like, no.
Yeah. No. No way.
So I called them up and like, hey, Scott.
You know, did you accept an offer?
So like, yeah, I had to. We had to.
It it was just so so much over list.
We we had to take it.
I'm like, wow. Okay.
Then I had a a conduit
over here in El Springs.
Two hundred and forty thousand
dollars, appraisal wise,
it was looking two thirty
two thirty three,
but my gentleman was was willing
to go to the two forty.
And like, okay. Yeah. He's like,
should we go higher go. No.
I think we're okay
At two forty.
You're you're putting down hundred
hundred and something thousand dollars.
Know, we're coming in very
strong. You know, let it...
They let it hang out till Monday and
and we ended up losing that one.
Went over over what they
listed it at. Yeah.
And it's just like, wow. I don't
wanna get into those again.
Oh, please. Please no. That is
that is absolutely no fun.
So anyways, when we we look at
our pricing, you know, again,
median, you know, we're not dropping
our medium pricing, You know,
we fluctuate week to week, but
not a whole heck of a lot. Yeah.
Our sales of course, we did drop
a little bit because, you know,
week after end of the month,
but we are we were we were above
the average again. Yep. And this this
I goes back to what our rates were.
You know, the sensitivity
of the rates.
You know, I think we're
gonna see over the weekend,
we're gonna see more people
come out because oh,
I can save half a percent at my
interest rate. Let me lock and shop.
Yeah. Then This is this
is what I expected to.
A drop in our average
days on market.
You know, we've we went from
a peak of sixty eight pretty much
beginning of February, and
we've dropped eight days. You.
Still kinda high sixty, but to drop
eight days in about four weeks,
that tells you that people
are out shopping. Yeah.
You know, we're we're getting into
that spring. Shopping shopping time.
And then at least it's not dropping
as much as it dropped here.
Know, we lost about fifty homes, you
know, in inventory and not too bad.
But I'm I'm expecting this number
to drop even further. Yeah.
That's gonna be a tough one.
Because I think... I mean, we're...
I I'd like to see it around forty five
hundred where I'd be happy with it.
Yeah. I I don't wanna go above
forty five hundred right now.
I feel like But I I I don't I
definitely don't wanna see that
thirty five hundred.
Yeah. I think if we...
If we were at a forty five hundred
with where the rates are right now.
Mh. It'd be
a pretty balanced.
You're gonna see a little bit
of wheel and dealing. Yep.
But you know, not what we saw
back in in November when we had,
you know, fifty five hundred in inventory,
know, you're you were going in...
We were going in super aggressive
at that time. Oh yeah.
You know, you were asking for less,
like, you know, offering less than us,
asking for, you know, three,
four percent of credits and he
you were getting it. And you
were getting now? Yep. Yep.
Because people just felt like,
oh, the markets, you know,
and you had all that
new news, you know,
of the doom and gloom
of the housing market.
So everyone's feeling you know, that...
That... Oh my gosh. I don't sell now.
I'm not I'm not gonna
be able to sell. Yep.
Which wasn't which
which wasn't true.
So, I mean, you get into
the condos, same thing.
Almost of a discount
that we've seen.
Over the past couple months and and
our numbers are consistent again.
And so our sells pretty much
our medium pricing. Mh.
So it's it's issuing when you
look at the the the the fifty
thousand foot view and then you
come back down into that ten
thousand foot to local. Yep. That
Orlando has been very isolated
mh compared to other markets. Yeah.
And very fortunate. Very fortunate.
Absolutely. So so if you're
if you're out there looking,
this week is not a bad time,
No. Well it it really isn't.
It could be good pull the trigger. Yeah.
I mean, seriously, reach out to Joe.
Get pre approved,
lock your rate.
You, we can definitely we can
explore lock and shop like,
the opportunities there and it
makes sense right now because
we don't know if it's gonna
stay this aggressive.
And that's the hard part is, you know,
where I think everybody is carefully...
You know, we're all carefully floating.
If that makes sense on the on our side.
It's kind of like, we we might be
able to squeeze a little bit more,
but we're ready to pull the trigger
and lock our entire, like,
lock everything Asap. You know, on
Monday, I had I had my entire team.
I I mean, I was telling my
entire team if you got something
floated lock out monday day.
Because that like I don't know
if it's gonna get
And, you know, Tuesday out
a little bit worse than wednesday
got a little bit better. Like, we're
still like, you know, it you...
It's it's it's hard
to to predict.
And that's what I telling like
our guys our sales guys.
Are like, well, maybe I...
And I'm like, guys,
unless you're watching this every
single minute, you might miss it.
And, like, I may see that drop
and then it could come right
back and you missed
it. I guess what?
Investors aren't like,
even when we see the drop,
they're holding back and they're
being, let's see what happens.
Do we get some pullback back? Because
that's what we've been seeing,
you looked in the trim reports,
like you get the down,
then you get the pull and it
comes back up a little bit.
So these investors
are are pricing up.
Like, a little bit stronger
waiting to see what happens.
Let the dust settle, then they'll
make another improvement.
That freight that improvement may
not come to the next morning.
And up by the next morning, we may have
lost everything and it maybe works.
Yeah so And that's kinda of that
comes out at eight o'clock at night.
Who you know, this bank
just did something bad.
Or oh, we revised the job numbers
and the job numbers and out
here as opposed to here We revised
the Cpi. So it's... It it...
It's difficult on your side.
You know because people want you
to have that magic crystal ball. I
wanted to. But had that why be rich.
Mike just call me barry. I still think
he's wrong. I still think he's wrong.
We'll see. We're gonna see. We're
gonna figure it out. Bye...
But Thanks so much bringing a lot of
awesome stuff this week a lot of fun.
Had some very serious
moments, but, you know,
see what kinda how the fed kinda
adjusts to have pivoted and,
you know, them responding quickly
with another bailout, not shocker,
but you, Yeah. I'm glad they did
because it did stabilize a little bit.
Yeah. We couldn't seen a much much
worse fallout than what we did.
Yeah. Yeah. We cut. So...
Alright. Everyone take care.
Enjoy the rest of your week. Happy
saint patrick's stay tomorrow.
Hey. You know what that means?
At least one. Yes. Take care.
God bless. Bye bye.