Orlando Weekly Housing Market Update

March 16, 2023




Good morning. It is been

something. Absolutely something.

I'm gonna go with that. Yeah.

You know what I have in my head,

and I was gonna try and and grab it was

to start out with Don Henley's song.

It's goes kick them when they're up,

kick them when they're down take them look.

Because that is that encompasses

this week to a t. Oh, man. Yeah.

It's say craziness this week. It's

been great. All started with What?

SVB, SVB..By now, I'm

sure everyone's aware.

Of SVB, Signature

Bank, Credit Suisse

It's got a bailout out this

morning and fifty six billion

dollars even Europe wanted to get

in on this action. Yeah. Yeah.

Exactly. And then what else

do we get this morning?

We woke up and Jobless claims. Guess what?

They fell they felt we this meeting.

Didn't they fall And then they

went up and were revised up.

But now they're gonna say

they fell again like, do...

Do we just need a little bit of good news

Is that is that what going on here.

We wanted to try to calm everybody

down with some positive news.

That we'll just

revise next week.

What the the the media might manipulate

the news Are? Joe. Je where's your hat

Where's the tin foil... Is that I got

tin foil in it? It does. It does.

It's lined with tin foil. It's

just to keep me warm. Oh my gosh.

Yeah. It just... You know,

the bank failures and you you look

at this stuff and, you

know, I watch barry Be...

I mean, so, you know, of course several

people explaining what went on.

But, you know, you you look

where they try to put in these

rules with the with dodd Frank

to protect from another bank

failure like we had in2008. Guess what.

The rules caused the bank failure.

Too much be bureaucracy. Right?

Yep. Yeah. It... The rule, like

the rule is is that if they

take depositor money and buy treasury bonds

with it which they were encouraging,

banks to bike treasury bonds.

Right? Secure. Yeah. Secure.

But if the bond

yield went down,

they could still claim full value

of the bond on under their sheets.

It what? Yes. That's why that's why when

when they looked at the audit from,

I think two weeks ago, the audit looked

great, except for that little sub.

No way down here. Number fifteen,

or sixteen. Everyone it was.

That that little sub

note down there.

It says, well, we are kind of exposed

because interest rates have gone up.

And if we have to sell, we're gonna

lose our shirt. Yep. And they did.

They did. Yeah. And so what did

that do to our lovely bond market.

Turn that into a total roller

coaster. This is this is five days.

That's it. Five days. Going back

to the eighth. In the ninth.

And just look at this.

Yeah. We were up...

We're up close to to four percent on

the bond yield. Boom what happens?

Okay. Sv b boom. Okay. They did

signature, boom. Well, coming back.

We put in the non bailout

bailout program. Right? Yeah.

It's a fun little program.

It's a funnel program.

I mean, hey, if I could

buy bonds, you know,

and say I could only sell them for eighty

dollar eighty cents on the dollar,

but you're willing give... Let

me loan at a hundred percent.

I'm gonna take that all day long.

That's a win win. It's a win win.

Yeah. Yeah. No, big deal. No

exposure for the taxpayers.

So, yeah. Woo. We saved the banks.

The fed we saved the banks.

Oh, wait. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Hold

on. Europe. Chris west bold my beer.

Let me show you. Let me show you some

systemic losses. Boom back down.

You? So we'll be interesting today

because also of sudden, we got the news,

Credit su got got a bailout. Jobs

numbers look phenomenal. Yeah.

Also okay with the world

again. All is okay.

Markets are already kind

of stable, you know,

we're not seeing huge swings in the Mbs

and right now on the thirty year.

You know, it's

it's interesting.

I mean, We are we're seeing

improvements on the thirty year

Mb s and the ten year still

down, but it's kind.

Do we see something else happen

and we see another, you know,

we trade sideways for the day

and then see another drop?

Who else who else can

join? I don't know.

Oh it's just Now what I will say

is for the consumer this has

been fantastic if you were, if you

happen to need to to lock this week,

Because what is all of this meant, Holy

cow it's been great for the consumer.

We're talking almost a half percent in

five days. Like you yep that's nuts.

That's absolutely nuts with what

we've seen on on rates that

we're able to offer consumers

and it's been fantastic.

Now the hard part about that too

is because it's so volatile.

We're just seeing pig, like, like,

these these lenders are like,

holy, like cow. Where do I throw

the dark? So they're... Yeah.

What be where do you price

don't know workings are going.

And thank you so much, sir. Sorry

That. Gotta get Fedex or Ups.

You you beat us better. I'm sorry.

Yeah. Sorry. No but Yeah.

It's just been, you know,

the the the the lenders and so forth,

they're opening

later in the day.

We're seeing more pauses in and

availability of rates we're

seeing bigger swings somewhere

are going out. Not aggressive.

Some are going really

aggressive and sweet.

So I've seen so much movement in

rep and everything else and,

you know, what we've can taught

our consumers is, like like,

this whole, like, if it's

good, lock it, like, yes.

Like, right now is not

the time to play to be like,

does it keep getting

better and better?

I think we will see it kinda

bounce back up a little bit.

I don't know if we're gonna go

all the way to where we were

Thursday of last week. I think

a lot of this news is gonna

keep it a little bit lower.

Yeah. I think... Yeah.

I think maybe for the next week,

until that twenty second. Yep.

I think everyone's gonna take

a deep breath for right now. Yeah.

So I think. To jerome...

Because, you know,

we we've been watching the the fed watch,

know, over the past couple weeks.

And where people are betting and you

know, we were back here you know,

a week ago. Mh. Only thirty one percent

or bet we're gonna take about...

We're gonna take a half

point jump. Yeah.

And then we did our show last Thursday,

it had jumped to eighty one percent.

Yep. Well back on Monday, I saw it back

down to, like, thirty percent now,

this morning guess

where they're back.

They're back to almost a half a point

jump in the rate. I think...

Man it's... I I he I feel like, if

we see the stock market though,

do poorly these next couple of

days? We may only see a quarter.

I'm gonna say, I I'm gonna say,

I think that if we see it, like,

these are the cracks

in the shop.

This is literally what I think, you

know, the fed's one with J Powell.

He wanted to see this. You have these

events that happened this last week,

this was kind of the cracks

that they wanted.

They were expecting something

like this to happen.

And what that fallout looks like? That's

that's gonna be the question mark.

But he wanted to see someone

hit this little nick. Yeah.

Because he isn't a type... Tight spot

because your consumer price index,

your core number still

very strong. Yeah.

Numbers came out and Tuesday,

and they were well above where

they were he they they wanted them to

be. So you got that's still strong.

Right. But year over year though is down

significantly. So we gotta give...

Like, it has gone

down a little bit,

but it is still way higher than

where the feds want. Like.

Then you got the banks with these

bonds that they bought back when,

the... You know, yields

were a lot lower Yep.

You know, taking, you know, buying three,

four year bonds with depositor money,

know if officers want that money

back. They gotta sell the bonds.

Got somewhat lost, But now you got

the stop gap, yeah. The new program.

So I think that's putting a little bit

of surety back in, but he can't...

That's where if he raises

them keeps raising them,

the bank that loss for the banks is

gonna keep getting bigger and bigger.

Yeah. And that's where

you can push, you know,

some of these frail regional

over the brink. And that's...

And that's the hard part. And who,

you know, you like a Silicon valley,

like, they're one type

of original that, like,

they they they lend to just

really risky endeavors. Right?

Like, you know, tech startups

ups, this and that.

You know, crypto

companies kind of like,

they were one of the few banks

willing to lend to them.

You they weren't

diversified or anything.

But, like, regional banks typically

aren't as diversified as big banks.

They just aren't. Like, because

they're the only ones that

are willing to be like,

hey. We're in a farm area.

We're gonna into those farmers. Because

nobody else will, the big box won't.

Like, so they're gonna do those type

of things. So where do we see?

Could we see these these kind

of kinks start to kinda happen

at a higher frequency?

I don't know.

I think that's why

the fed stuck like,

if the fed didn't do what they did

over the weekend, which like,

I'll give them kudos like, the Fed

did some work over the weekend.

Like, Mh. I mean,

I'm shocked. Like...

I mean, I I know it it's tough

for them to have to make a couple

phone calls on a Sunday. I I most of

them probably haven't done that in,

you know, twenty, thirty years. I

don't know. But I think it had to.

Like, they had to. But that's where

now I'm sitting there going okay.

Do we see more? I don't know

if we're gonna see more.

Hopefully, we don't

we we we have...

We have a society now that

panic about toilet paper.

So I really don't wanna see what

happens if if we do have a,

like, multiple banks start to

have some issues because people

will there will be...

Like, I mean,

there will be a run on

the so hopefully not.

You know, the one thing that I

remind a lot of consumers is like,

hey, like, remember, like,

you're protected to two hundred

and fifty thousand for. Like,

very few people have more than

that exposure with the bank. And

the other side of that is, like,

the reason why there was a rhino

silicon Valley is because

these a tech startups that...

Like, if you're a business,

you don't wanna lose a dollar. And

there's no way to get that back.

Like, if I had a million dollars in

the bank I was like, to two fifty.

I'd be, like, you I'm pulling

everything out. Like, like, I get it.

Like, so I don't... You know,

but what does that entail for

us on the radio scale? We're gonna see.

It's gonna be really interesting.

I mean, I know that you pulled up

the ten year treasury the ten,

and what's really cool is... And

I say cool is we started today

below the two hundred day

moving average. Yes.

So we've been bouncing off

of the fifty percent bid,

which I've getting really technical

on this for the last couple

of days is we did it a couple weeks...

You know, back in January.

We kinda of were, you know, started

so do we do we see a move back down?

Maybe, but we can also see

a shift back up really quickly.

So it's gonna be interesting

to see what happens over these

next couple of days. And I

think we will, like you said,

it might cool down until that

twenty second because that's

when hey what's gonna happen with

the bonds with the the federal

fund rate and if they're gonna raise

it. How much are they gonna raise it?

They're gonna raise it. Right?

Like, we... Fifty that's.

It definitely won't

be more than fifty.

Now A lot of people were we're, like

well he's gonna have to pause now.

So I... There's

that... They...

I don't I still see, like, and I I

think there could be twenty five.

You know, twenty five

bp could be it.

Like, I don't think that this

event was the type of credit

event that would cause a change it like,

a change in what they're gonna do.

Like, it wouldn't needed

to be much bigger.

And this was a pretty major event,

but I still think it needed...

It would need to be if, you know,

silicon valley was what, like,

the fourteenth biggest bank, sixty

eleven sixteen biggest bang.

If it would... If Silicon

valley was, like,

the seventh biggest bang or six biggest

bang? I'd be like policies changing.

But I think fourteen was

just... They're big, But...

I mean, you know you know,

Jpmorgan Chase has about ten times

the assets you know, twelve

thirteen times assets as silicon

valley of it you're like

yeah. It's just it...

It's funny when you sit there

and you're thinking about okay.

If I was in Vegas right now, what

way am I bad? Ben on something.

I'm losing, but I'm bet

gotcha. Oh, man. So you...

So from the fifty thousand foot view,

that's what we're looking at.

You know. That that's

everything we're looking at.

But then when you come back down, you

know, and do the thousand foot view,

the ten thousand foot view

over over Orlando, you know,

we're still sitting strong. You

know, still sitting strong.

You know, when we get into our numbers,

you know, you're you're seeing that.

So, you know, our inventory

we dropped about fifty one.

And really, this is the biggest

thing that is driving the the

market here in Orlando.

Is where Yeah.

Where other areas that seeing their

inventory continue to shoot up.

It's not us. It's

just not us.

You know, we're we're holding, but we're

we're sure heck neck not going up.

And you're seeing it again in

the in the pricing. Yeah.

You know, we're we've steadily

decreased the amount of discount

that sellers are willing

to give. Yeah. Sometimes.

And we're just hidden buyer season.

Right? Yeah. Yeah. We're buyer season.

I had... Had a busy Friday. I had three

clients put in three offers on Friday.

Mh. And two of them, both

both went over list.

They in that two hundred and three

hundred thousand dollar market,

Mh. And one of them, call the agent

said I'll be sending over an offer.

We got down it was,

like, five forty three.

You know, got home, you know, about

six thirty, about six forty five.

Had almost the whole

thing typed up.

Go back in just to double check

something on the Ml pending.

I'm like, no.

Yeah. No. No way.

So I called them up and like, hey, Scott.

You know, did you accept an offer?

So like, yeah, I had to. We had to.

It it was just so so much over list.

We we had to take it.

I'm like, wow. Okay.

Then I had a a conduit

over here in El Springs.

Two hundred and forty thousand

dollars, appraisal wise,

it was looking two thirty

two thirty three,

but my gentleman was was willing

to go to the two forty.

And like, okay. Yeah. He's like,

should we go higher go. No.

I think we're okay

At two forty.

You're you're putting down hundred

hundred and something thousand dollars.

Know, we're coming in very

strong. You know, let it...

They let it hang out till Monday and

and we ended up losing that one.

Went over over what they

listed it at. Yeah.

And it's just like, wow. I don't

wanna get into those again.

Oh, please. Please no. That is

that is absolutely no fun.

So anyways, when we we look at

our pricing, you know, again,

median, you know, we're not dropping

our medium pricing, You know,

we fluctuate week to week, but

not a whole heck of a lot. Yeah.

Our sales of course, we did drop

a little bit because, you know,

week after end of the month,

but we are we were we were above

the average again. Yep. And this this

I goes back to what our rates were.

You know, the sensitivity

of the rates.

You know, I think we're

gonna see over the weekend,

we're gonna see more people

come out because oh,

I can save half a percent at my

interest rate. Let me lock and shop.

Yeah. Then This is this

is what I expected to.

A drop in our average

days on market.

You know, we've we went from

a peak of sixty eight pretty much

beginning of February, and

we've dropped eight days. You.

Still kinda high sixty, but to drop

eight days in about four weeks,

that tells you that people

are out shopping. Yeah.

You know, we're we're getting into

that spring. Shopping shopping time.

And then at least it's not dropping

as much as it dropped here.

Know, we lost about fifty homes, you

know, in inventory and not too bad.

But I'm I'm expecting this number

to drop even further. Yeah.

That's gonna be a tough one.

Because I think... I mean, we're...

I I'd like to see it around forty five

hundred where I'd be happy with it.

Yeah. I I don't wanna go above

forty five hundred right now.

I feel like But I I I don't I

definitely don't wanna see that

thirty five hundred.

Yeah. I think if we...

If we were at a forty five hundred

with where the rates are right now.

Mh. It'd be

a pretty balanced.

You're gonna see a little bit

of wheel and dealing. Yep.

But you know, not what we saw

back in in November when we had,

you know, fifty five hundred in inventory,

know, you're you were going in...

We were going in super aggressive

at that time. Oh yeah.

You know, you were asking for less,

like, you know, offering less than us,

asking for, you know, three,

four percent of credits and he

you were getting it. And you

were getting now? Yep. Yep.

Because people just felt like,

oh, the markets, you know,

and you had all that

new news, you know,

of the doom and gloom

of the housing market.

So everyone's feeling you know, that...

That... Oh my gosh. I don't sell now.

I'm not I'm not gonna

be able to sell. Yep.

Which wasn't which

which wasn't true.

So, I mean, you get into

the condos, same thing.

Almost of a discount

that we've seen.

Over the past couple months and and

our numbers are consistent again.

And so our sells pretty much

our medium pricing. Mh.

So it's it's issuing when you

look at the the the the fifty

thousand foot view and then you

come back down into that ten

thousand foot to local. Yep. That

Orlando has been very isolated

mh compared to other markets. Yeah.

And very fortunate. Very fortunate.

Absolutely. So so if you're

if you're out there looking,

this week is not a bad time,

No. Well it it really isn't.

It could be good pull the trigger. Yeah.

I mean, seriously, reach out to Joe.

Get pre approved,

lock your rate.

You, we can definitely we can

explore lock and shop like,

the opportunities there and it

makes sense right now because

we don't know if it's gonna

stay this aggressive.

And that's the hard part is, you know,

where I think everybody is carefully...

You know, we're all carefully floating.

If that makes sense on the on our side.

It's kind of like, we we might be

able to squeeze a little bit more,

but we're ready to pull the trigger

and lock our entire, like,

lock everything Asap. You know, on

Monday, I had I had my entire team.

I I mean, I was telling my

entire team if you got something

floated lock out monday day.

Because that like I don't know

if it's gonna get

much better.

And, you know, Tuesday out

a little bit worse than wednesday

got a little bit better. Like, we're

still like, you know, it you...

It's it's it's hard

to to predict.

And that's what I telling like

our guys our sales guys.

Are like, well, maybe I...

And I'm like, guys,

unless you're watching this every

single minute, you might miss it.

And, like, I may see that drop

and then it could come right

back and you missed

it. I guess what?

Investors aren't like,

even when we see the drop,

they're holding back and they're

being, let's see what happens.

Do we get some pullback back? Because

that's what we've been seeing,

you looked in the trim reports,

like you get the down,

then you get the pull and it

comes back up a little bit.

So these investors

are are pricing up.

Like, a little bit stronger

waiting to see what happens.

Let the dust settle, then they'll

make another improvement.

That freight that improvement may

not come to the next morning.

And up by the next morning, we may have

lost everything and it maybe works.

Yeah so And that's kinda of that

comes out at eight o'clock at night.

Who you know, this bank

just did something bad.

Or oh, we revised the job numbers

and the job numbers and out

here as opposed to here We revised

the Cpi. So it's... It it...

It's difficult on your side.

You know because people want you

to have that magic crystal ball. I

wanted to. But had that why be rich.

Mike just call me barry. I still think

he's wrong. I still think he's wrong.

We'll see. We're gonna see. We're

gonna figure it out. Bye...

But Thanks so much bringing a lot of

awesome stuff this week a lot of fun.

Had some very serious

moments, but, you know,

see what kinda how the fed kinda

adjusts to have pivoted and,

you know, them responding quickly

with another bailout, not shocker,

but you, Yeah. I'm glad they did

because it did stabilize a little bit.

Yeah. We couldn't seen a much much

worse fallout than what we did.

Yeah. Yeah. We cut. So...

Alright. Everyone take care.

Enjoy the rest of your week. Happy

saint patrick's stay tomorrow.

Hey. You know what that means?

At least one. Yes. Take care.

God bless. Bye bye.